7315 Bay Crest Rd · Lynn Haven, FL 32409

$169,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1998 0.57 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you are looking for a TURN KEY READY under $150,000??? This could be the last place you look!!! This updated home has a very nice covered deck on the front and the back for your family to sit and enjoy this great size yard at a little over a half acre////// The owner had a wall removed to give it an open floor. The layout makes it feel so much larger so do not let the size fool you into to not taking a look!! You will love the updated kitchen! This property is in Excellent condition!!! INVESTORS, THIS WOULD ALSO MAKE A FANTASTIC RENTAL!! all sizes and info are approximate buyer to verify.

Key facts

• Scenic gainer bayou
• Spacious front deck
• Covered rear area

Tags

• APPROXIMATELY 0.57 ACRES
• SCENIC GAINER BAYOU
• SPACIOUS FRONT DECK
• COVERED REAR AREA
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• 12X16 WIRED STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Unpaved parking
• Utilities: Electricity available; Cable connected
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; Single level (1 story)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Paved lot access; City street frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Plumbed for ice maker
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor (approximately 13 x 12 and 12 x 11)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Covered patio; Deck; Covered porch; Porch; Shed(s); Fenced
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $168 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.5% in Lynn Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in FL, #1,472 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (9.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $138k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,658 (6.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.25%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.08% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $92,433
• Equity at exit: $141,473

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.51×
• Total profit: $261,512
• Equity at exit: $293,885

Cash invested: $47,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32409

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,587 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$889
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,511/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,374

Max offer price $169,500

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,375
• Closing costs: $5,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $169,500 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $169,500 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-05-19
   listed $169,500 Active
4. 2024-06-13
   soldstatus $138,000
5. 2024-06-12
   soldstatus $138,000 Closed 598-char remark

   Show marketing remark (598 chars)

   If you are looking for a TURN KEY READY under $150,000??? This could be the last place you look!!! This updated home has a very nice covered deck on the front and the back for your family to sit and enjoy this great size yard at a little over a half acre////// The owner had a wall removed to give it an open floor. The layout makes it feel so much larger so do not let the size fool you into to not taking a look!! You will love the updated kitchen! This property is in Excellent condition!!! INVESTORS, THIS WOULD ALSO MAKE A FANTASTIC RENTAL!! all sizes and info are approximate buyer to verify.

6. 2024-06-11
   status Pending 598-char remark

   Show marketing remark (598 chars)

   If you are looking for a TURN KEY READY under $150,000??? This could be the last place you look!!! This updated home has a very nice covered deck on the front and the back for your family to sit and enjoy this great size yard at a little over a half acre////// The owner had a wall removed to give it an open floor. The layout makes it feel so much larger so do not let the size fool you into to not taking a look!! You will love the updated kitchen! This property is in Excellent condition!!! INVESTORS, THIS WOULD ALSO MAKE A FANTASTIC RENTAL!! all sizes and info are approximate buyer to verify.

7. 2024-05-20
   price $144,500 598-char remark

   Show marketing remark (598 chars)

   If you are looking for a TURN KEY READY under $150,000??? This could be the last place you look!!! This updated home has a very nice covered deck on the front and the back for your family to sit and enjoy this great size yard at a little over a half acre////// The owner had a wall removed to give it an open floor. The layout makes it feel so much larger so do not let the size fool you into to not taking a look!! You will love the updated kitchen! This property is in Excellent condition!!! INVESTORS, THIS WOULD ALSO MAKE A FANTASTIC RENTAL!! all sizes and info are approximate buyer to verify.

8. 2024-03-15
   listed $149,500 Active 598-char remark

   Show marketing remark (598 chars)

   If you are looking for a TURN KEY READY under $150,000??? This could be the last place you look!!! This updated home has a very nice covered deck on the front and the back for your family to sit and enjoy this great size yard at a little over a half acre////// The owner had a wall removed to give it an open floor. The layout makes it feel so much larger so do not let the size fool you into to not taking a look!! You will love the updated kitchen! This property is in Excellent condition!!! INVESTORS, THIS WOULD ALSO MAKE A FANTASTIC RENTAL!! all sizes and info are approximate buyer to verify.

9. 2022-09-29
   soldstatus $99,000
10. 2022-09-28
    soldstatus $99,000 Closed 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    If you are looking for a TURN KEY READY under $100,000??? This could be the last place you look!!! This updated home has a very nice covered deck on the front and the back for your family to sit and enjoy this great size yard at a little over a half acre////// The owner had a wall removed to give it an open floor. The layout makes it feel so much larger so do not let the size fool you into to not taking a look!! You will love the updated kitchen! This property is in Excellent condition!!! INVESTORS, THIS WOULD ALSO MAKE A FANTASTIC RENTAL!! all sizes and info are approximate buyer to verify.

11. 2022-09-14
    status Pending 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    If you are looking for a TURN KEY READY under $100,000??? This could be the last place you look!!! This updated home has a very nice covered deck on the front and the back for your family to sit and enjoy this great size yard at a little over a half acre////// The owner had a wall removed to give it an open floor. The layout makes it feel so much larger so do not let the size fool you into to not taking a look!! You will love the updated kitchen! This property is in Excellent condition!!! INVESTORS, THIS WOULD ALSO MAKE A FANTASTIC RENTAL!! all sizes and info are approximate buyer to verify.

12. 2022-09-07
    listed $99,500 Active 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    If you are looking for a TURN KEY READY under $100,000??? This could be the last place you look!!! This updated home has a very nice covered deck on the front and the back for your family to sit and enjoy this great size yard at a little over a half acre////// The owner had a wall removed to give it an open floor. The layout makes it feel so much larger so do not let the size fool you into to not taking a look!! You will love the updated kitchen! This property is in Excellent condition!!! INVESTORS, THIS WOULD ALSO MAKE A FANTASTIC RENTAL!! all sizes and info are approximate buyer to verify.

13. 2021-12-14
    historical
14. 2017-02-28
    soldstatus $34,900
15. 2017-02-28
    soldstatus $34,900
16. 2017-02-03
    listed $36,000
17. 2017-02-03
    listed $36,000
18. 2015-05-27
    listed $45,999

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,511 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,511 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,039
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,495
• − Property taxes: −$1,511
• − Insurance: −$848
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,523
• − Management: −$1,523
• − Depreciation: −$4,931
• Taxable loss: −$791
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$190
• After-tax cash flow: $2,206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lynn Haven

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #1472

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 21,459
• Population (ZIP): 10,941

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.08%
• Current HPI: 391.06
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+268.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $169,500 CPARMLS
• 2024-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $138,000 Public Records
• 2024-06-12 Sold (MLS) $138,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-06-11 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2024-05-20 Price Changed $144,500 CPARMLS
• 2024-03-15 Listed $149,500 CPARMLS
• 2022-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $99,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-28 Sold (MLS) $99,000 CPARMLS
• 2022-09-14 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2022-09-07 Listed $99,500 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2017-02-28 Sold (MLS) $34,900 CPARMLS
• 2017-02-28 Sold (MLS) $34,900 RAFGC
• 2017-02-03 Listed $36,000 CPARMLS
• 2017-02-03 Listed $36,000 RAFGC
• 2015-05-27 Listed $45,999 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+16.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,511 · +34.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.