11621 Tazwell Dr · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40245

$197,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 960 sqft · Townhouse · 28 Days on market

Built 1991 2,340 sqft lot Est $162k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BACK ON MARKET!! (owners agree to have new furnace & ac unit installed before closing! ) this lovely townhouse is currently ready for SALE! 3 bedrooms, 1 full bathroom & 1/2 bath, kitchen with dining room area, there is a 1/2 bath off the kitchen and a privacy fenced backyard! CALL YOUR AGENT TODAY! MOVE IN READY!!

Key facts

• Built 1991
• Listed 28 days

Tags

• PRIVACY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Traditional-style residential property; Two stories; Located in the Pine Tree Villa subdivision
• Construction: Built in 1991; Brick construction; Shingle roof; Poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor; First-floor dining area
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms located on the second floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the second floor; One half bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating with natural gas; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Six closets; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($542/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 343 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($123k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($195k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,081 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.98%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11915 Tazwell Dr Apt 6	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	985 (+3%)	3mo	$157,000	$159	73
11913 Tazwell Dr #2	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	970 (+1%)	8mo	$160,000	$165	71
11909 Tazwell Dr #5	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	930 (-3%)	6mo	$155,000	$167	71
11911 Tazwell Dr #2	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	981 (+2%)	16mo	$158,750	$162	64
11915 Tazwell Dr Apt 8	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	898 (-6%)	8mo	$152,000	$169	62
3726 Charter Oaks Dr #3	0.70mi	2/1.5 (-1)	950 (-1%)	6mo	$148,500	$156	56
12417 Kiawah Ct	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	945 (-2%)	4mo	$190,000	$201	54
3724 Charter Oaks Dr #3	0.68mi	2/1.5 (-1)	948 (-1%)	12mo	$145,000	$153	51
12405 Kiawah Ct	0.68mi	3/1.5	890 (-7%)	19mo	$185,000	$208	40
12502 Kiawah Ct	0.73mi	3/1.0	862 (-10%)	12mo	$165,000	$191	36
12414 Kiawah Ct	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	866 (-10%)	12mo	$169,000	$195	32
12400 Kiawah Ct #44	0.68mi	3/1.0	829 (-14%)	20mo	$165,000	$199	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-31,939
• Equity at exit: $29,448

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-35,259
• Equity at exit: $17,076

Cash invested: $55,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40245

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 343
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,571 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,036
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $933/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,514

Max offer price $197,500

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,375
• Closing costs: $5,925
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4500 Westport Woods Ln Unit 4506-304 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	930	$1,100	$1.18	10d	1	0.16mi
4500 Westport Woods Ln Unit 4508-104 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	930	$1,100	$1.18	24d	1	0.16mi
11707 Nansemond Pl Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	824	$1,499	$1.82	2d	12	0.21mi
11353 N Tazwell Dr Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1366	$1,850	$1.35	2d	29	0.24mi
4429 Baygarden Ct Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	872	$1,700	$1.95	16d	1	0.28mi
3906 Accomack Dr Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	945	$1,045	$1.11	3d	3	0.43mi
11507 Maple Brook Dr Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$1,756	$1.68	2d	7	0.48mi
4605 Pulaski Ct Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1111	$2,100	$1.89	24d	1	0.53mi
5004 Winding Spring Pl Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,499	$1.42	10d	1	0.84mi
5004 Winding Spring Pl Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,499	$1.42	2d	1	0.84mi
10720 Bell Tucker Ln Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1064	$2,139	$2.01	2d	29	0.97mi
11000 Indian Legends Dr Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1165	$1,999	$1.72	2d	9	1.20mi
10400 Shadow Ridge Ln Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1108	$1,795	$1.62	2d	23	1.45mi
3700 Springhurst Blvd Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	998	$1,842	$1.84	2d	29	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $197,500 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $197,500 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $197,500 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $197,500 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $197,500 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $197,500 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $197,500 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $197,500 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 323-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $197,500 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-05-14
    listed $197,500 Active
12. 2023-04-01
    status Pending
13. 2023-03-16
    historical
14. 2023-03-16
    price $135,000
15. 2023-03-16
    historical
16. 2023-02-20
    listed $525,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $933 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,698 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$766/yr (+$64/mo · 82.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,063
• − Property taxes: −$933
• − Insurance: −$988
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,508
• − Management: −$1,508
• − Depreciation: −$5,745
• Taxable loss: −$2,895
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$695
• After-tax cash flow: $1,237/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 39,835
• Household income: $122,948
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 826.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 8% Asian 8% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.50%
• Current HPI: 218.7477
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-62.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $197,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2023-04-01 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2023-03-16 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2023-03-16 Price Changed $135,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2023-03-16 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2023-02-20 Listed $525,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $933 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.