11802 Poppy Hills Ct · Waldorf, MD 20602

$380,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,583 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2001 7,841 sqft lot Est $524k · 28% under $70/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in Fairway Village within the Sheffield community, contemporary colonial. Enjoy close proximity to 18-hole golf courses, along with abundant green space and parkland. Community amenities include the Sheffield clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, lakes, and trails. Ideally positioned near the growing Shops at Fairway Village. Home requires rehab and is suited for investors and renovation buffs. Cash, hard money or renovation financing is acceptable. Estate sale.

Key facts

• 7,841 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA fee of $70 per month

Exterior

• Parking: Attached front-entry garage with 2 spaces; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Detached property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Concrete perimeter foundation; Estimated year built; Major rehab needed
• Exterior features: Community pool; Not in a federal flood zone; Above-grade and below-grade structures

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heating and cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Estimated living area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-229 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $339k (10.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $316k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $316k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#141 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $315,980 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.59%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $524,349
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4300 Eagle Trace Ct	0.22mi	4/2.0	2,598 (+1%)	5mo	$524,500	$202	83
4909 Cordova Ct	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,442 (-6%)	7mo	$575,000	$235	73
1600 Boarman Ct	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,412 (-7%)	13mo	$453,000	$188	66
11457 Westmont Ct	0.26mi	4/3.5	2,452 (-5%)	19mo	$499,999	$204	59
4380 Rock Ct	0.51mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,221 (-14%)	1mo	$419,000	$189	45
4621 La Costa Ln	0.43mi	4/4.5	2,890 (+12%)	9mo	$587,100	$203	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-76,083
• Equity at exit: $56,659

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-84,629
• Equity at exit: $32,855

Cash invested: $106,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20602

• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,160 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax from tax record: −$505 /mo · $6,055/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$664
• Net cashflow: $-229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,450

Max offer price $339,462

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,000
• Closing costs: $11,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1010 Allward Dr Waldorf, MD	4.0	2.0	2176	$2,999	$1.38	43d	1	0.20mi
11497 Scotch Hills Pl Waldorf, MD	4.0	3.5	2068	$3,000	$1.45	43d	1	0.45mi
4546 Scottsdale Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	2021	$2,645	$1.31	5d	1	0.48mi
6 Greystone Cir Waldorf, MD	4.0	2.0	1781	$2,900	$1.63	43d	1	0.55mi
5065 Ottawa Park Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.0	2192	$2,800	$1.28	12d	1	0.77mi
326 Garner Ave Waldorf, MD	4.0	2.0	2280	$2,500	$1.10	43d	1	0.81mi
11748 Sunningdale Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1860	$2,750	$1.48	24d	1	0.94mi
11777 Sunningdale Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1944	$2,800	$1.44	43d	1	1.01mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-12
   historical
3. 2026-04-10
   historical $380,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,055 · $505/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,055 · $505/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,918
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,286
• − Property taxes: −$6,055
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,033
• − Management: −$3,033
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$11,055
• Taxable loss: −$9,285
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,228
• After-tax cash flow: $-525/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charles County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400270
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $90,389
• Composite: 22.54/100
• National rank: #8087
• State rank: #14 of 24 in MD

Livability — Waldorf

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #6083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waldorf, MD
• County: Charles County · 103,527 people
• City population: 103,527
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 28,331
• Household income: $107,360
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 867.0

Population outlook (Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,616 people
• By 2030: 186,471 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 206,472 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 224,883 · +27.3%
• By 2075: 272,101 · +54.1%
• By 2100: 303,564 · +71.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 19% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Charles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.7) · D 69.2% · R 28.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.2pp toward D · 2008: 25.5pp · 2024: 40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.7 2020: D+40.9 2016: D+30.2 2012: D+31.3 2008: D+25.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -261.39%
• Current HPI: 267.3445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-10 Coming Soon $380,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,055 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.