943 Liverpool Cir Unit B · Leisure Village West, NJ 08759

$199,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Built 1985 Average condition $172/sqft · 29% below area Est $282k · 29% under $405/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a great place to spend the next chapter of your life. Leisure Village West is one of the most sought after communities in Ocean County. So many clubs, committees and activities for you to enjoy. This Oxford model home is the perfect size home, just needs your decorating ideas. Easy to care for and a great location. You can walk to all the events. Two bedrooms generously sized and two private baths, a screened in porch together with a spacious dining room, Living room and garage with direct access into your home.

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Spacious dining room
• Garage

Tags

• SCREENED IN PORCH
• SPACIOUS DINING ROOM
• DIRECT ACCESS INTO YOUR HOME

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association dues paid monthly; Community amenities include exercise room, swimming pool, golf course, clubhouse, common areas, jogging path, and bocce; Association fee includes trash, common area maintenance, lawn maintenance, pool, sewer, and snow removal; Association: Leisure Village West Assoc.

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium ownership; Model: Oxford; Attached property
• Construction: Garage present (first level, approx. 20 x 12); Living area approximately 1164
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Stove; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the first level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Central air conditioning; Heating present
• Interior features: Includes blinds/shades and light fixtures; Garage door opener included
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $444 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 5.8% in Leisure Village West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#261 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,999 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.52%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,253
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: -29.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
873B Liverpool Cir	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,164 (0%)	0mo	$306,000	$263	93
945A Liverpool Cir Unit A	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,243 (+7%)	0mo	$248,500	$200	87
478A Buckingham Dr	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,164 (0%)	3mo	$259,000	$223	76
715C Wooton Ct	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,243 (+7%)	2mo	$284,000	$228	75
550 A Mayfair Rd	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,243 (+7%)	6mo	$229,900	$185	60
463B Chelsea Ct	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,243 (+7%)	6mo	$280,000	$225	58
567A Mayfair Rd	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,243 (+7%)	3mo	$230,000	$185	58
638B Finchley Ct	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,243 (+7%)	3mo	$245,000	$197	57
4b Cambridge Cir	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,238 (+6%)	3mo	$210,000	$170	56
655-A Pulham Ct	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,243 (+7%)	1mo	$225,000	$181	54
61 Cambridge Cir Unit B	0.60mi	2/1.5	1,050 (-10%)	5mo	$249,000	$237	50
609 Commonwealth Blvd	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,323 (+14%)	4mo	$400,000	$302	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,808
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $34,321
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,825 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$405
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$593
• Net cashflow: $444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,262

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $583	-5% $514	+0% $444	+5% $375	+10% $306
Rent	-10% $221	-5% $333	+0% $444	+5% $556	+10% $668
Rate	-1.0pp $545	-0.5pp $495	base $444	+0.5pp $393	+1.0pp $340

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
150 Farm Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1280	$3,000	$2.34	22d	1	0.38mi
2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,775	$2.02	2d	3	0.70mi
501 Bismarck St Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,775	$2.13	44d	1	0.83mi
43C Edinburgh Ln Manchester, NJ	2.0	1.0	836	$2,200	$2.63	44d	1	0.90mi
2501 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1252	$3,468	$2.77	2d	6	0.92mi
1700 New Jersey 37 Unit 112-11 Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1224	$2,299	$1.88	2d	1	0.95mi
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	44d	1	1.23mi
1425 Amsterdam Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1376	$3,500	$2.54	44d	1	1.25mi
1540 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,900	$2.15	44d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $405 · $4,860/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,999 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,999 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,999 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,999 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,999 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,999 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,999 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,999 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,999 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,999 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,999 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    listed $199,999 Active 529-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,898
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,712
• − Management: −$2,712
• − HOA: −$4,860
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $2,593
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$622
• After-tax cash flow: $4,711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in average condition with cosmetic repairs needed. It's move-in ready with potential for significant value increase through exterior painting and carpet replacement.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior siding — Light wear and tear
• Minor interior paint — Slight fading

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and value
• Resale Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and attracts buyers
• Resale Upgrade bathrooms — Enhances the overall appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Light wear and tear	Minor	$500–3,000
interior paint · Slight fading	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and value ↑
• Resale Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and attracts buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrade bathrooms — Enhances the overall appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village West

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #7714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village West, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $199,999 MOMLS