5516 Owl Hoot Dr #3 · Fort Collins, CO 80528

$290,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,320 sqft · Townhouse public records · 664 Days on market

Built 2024 1,508 sqft lot $261/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

AFFORDABLE HOUSING!! Discover the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in a brand-new, move-in ready 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome with an attached 1-car garage! Step inside to find a bright and airy living room, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The open-concept design flows effortlessly into a stylish kitchen, featuring stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet space, and elegant granite countertops. The main floor also includes a handy half bath for guests. Upstairs, you'll find three generously sized bedrooms, including a primary suite with its own private bathroom. Located in a vibrant neighborhood near coffee shops, bars, restaurants, parks, and public transportation. As part o

Key facts

• Brand-new townhome
• $261 HOA
• Garage

Tags

• BRAND-NEW TOWNHOME

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of an association (Birdwhistle Townhomes HOA); Monthly HOA fee of $261 (includes reserves, grounds maintenance, structure maintenance, and snow removal); Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with one parking space (one-car)
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electricity available and connected; Natural gas available and connected; Public sewer; Public water
• Home design: New construction townhouse; Two levels; Attached property; Builder ownership
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as townhouse
• Exterior features: Patio; Partial fencing; Paved road access; Private and public road frontage; road is publicly maintained

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Microwave; Oven (self-cleaning); Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms — all on the upper level; primary suite on upper level
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms; Laminate in living room and kitchen
• Bathrooms: Three bathrooms total — two full (both upper level) and one half bath on the main level; Primary suite includes a full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Walk-in closet(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry

🏗️ New construction. The $290,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $348,480.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-775 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.6% in Fort Collins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#11 in CO, #1,750 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Poudre School District R-1 (urban): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #10 of 86 in CO (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Zach Elementary School (math 77% / reading 87%, grade A+, #4 of 966 statewide, top 1%, 475 students, 7% FRL); Preston Middle School (math 53% / reading 59%, grade B-, #22 of 270 statewide, top 9%, 545 students, 18% FRL); Fossil Ridge High School (math 63% / reading 83%, grade B+, #16 of 381 statewide, top 4%, 2,053 students, 9% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Poudre School District R-1 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,786 units permitted in Larimer County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Larimer County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 664 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,337 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 664 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.53%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $348,480
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3684 Loggers Ln Unit E-3	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,170 (-11%)	1mo	$290,000	$248	79
3684 Loggers Ln #3	0.03mi	3/3.0	1,170 (-11%)	1mo	$290,000	$248	77
3614 Loggers Ln Unit D-3	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,170 (-11%)	2mo	$290,000	$248	76
5536 Owl Hoot Dr #1	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,170 (-11%)	10mo	$290,000	$248	72
5162 Southern Cross Ln Unit C	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,314 (-0%)	5mo	$390,000	$297	71
5139 Northern Lights Dr Unit 13-B	0.42mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,392 (+6%)	1mo	$390,000	$280	65
5850 Dripping Rock Ln Unit C-206	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (+3%)	2mo	$350,000	$257	63
5850 Dripping Rock Ln Unit A201	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (+3%)	4mo	$353,000	$260	61
3051 County Fair Ln #1	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,420 (+8%)	9mo	$375,000	$264	52
3450 Lost Lake Pl #4	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,481 (+12%)	9mo	$398,000	$269	46
3056 County Fair Ln #2	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,471 (+11%)	7mo	$405,000	$275	46
5020 Cinquefoil Ln Unit 9G	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,506 (+14%)	10mo	$405,000	$269	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.42% appreciation · 3.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-80,440
• Equity at exit: $77,211

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-104,940
• Equity at exit: $75,329

Cash invested: $97,574 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80528

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,398 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,827
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$436 /mo · $5,227/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$261
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-775

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,379

Max offer price $236,337

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,120
• Closing costs: $10,454
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5850 Dripping Rock Ln Fort Collins, CO	2.0	2.0–3.0	1267	$2,098	$1.65	23d	3	0.56mi
4701 Strauss Cabin Rd Fort Collins, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1087	$2,640	$2.43	13d	27	0.71mi
2921 Timberwood Dr Fort Collins, CO	2.0–3.0	2.0	1048	$1,920	$1.83	13d	3	1.03mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $261 · $3,132/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,000 Active 664 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,000 Active 663 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,000 Active 662 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,000 Active 661 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $290,000 Active 659 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $290,000 Active 656 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,000 Active 655 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,000 Active 654 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $290,000 Active 653 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,000 Active 649 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,000 Active 648 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,000 Active 647 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,000 Active 646 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $290,000 Active 645 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,520
• − Property taxes: −$5,227
• − Insurance: −$1,742
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,302
• − Management: −$2,302
• − HOA: −$3,132
• − Depreciation: −$10,138
• Taxable loss: −$15,590
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,741
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,558/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poudre School District R-1
• NCES district ID: 0803990
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,281
• Composite: 45.5/100
• National rank: #2610
• State rank: #10 of 86 in CO

Livability — Fort Collins

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #1750

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment B Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Collins, CO
• County: Larimer County · 338,255 people
• City population: 202,303
• Metro: Fort Collins, CO
• Population (ZIP): 24,960
• Household income: $130,350
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Larimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,361 people
• By 2030: 457,762 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 542,310 · +30.6%
• By 2050: 627,048 · +51.0%
• By 2075: 833,722 · +100.7%
• By 2100: 952,590 · +129.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 12% Asian 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Larimer

• 2024 margin: D (+17.6) · D 57.4% · R 39.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: 9.7pp · 2024: 17.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.6 2020: D+15.4 2016: D+4.9 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Current HPI: 244.4061
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.60%
• Metro: Fort Collins, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B