5802 River Trl · Blackshear, GA 31516

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1997 2.02 ac lot ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover peaceful country living just moments from the Satilla River! Nestled on over two private acres, this well-maintained property offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and functionality. Ideal for hobbyists, craftsmen, or anyone needing room for projects and storage, you'll find multiple workshops, outbuildings, and storage areas throughout the property. Inside, the home features a desirable split bedroom floor plan with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. One guest bedroom includes an additional flex space perfect for a private reading room, media room, office, or retreat. The spacious living and dining areas boast vaulted ceilings, creating an open and inviting atmosphere. The primary

Key facts

• Private acres
• Flex space
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• MULTIPLE WORKSHOPS
• OUTBUILDINGS
• STORAGE AREAS
• FLEX SPACE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Attached parking
• Utilities: Well water
• Home design: Residential zoning; Jacobsen Classic mobile home (52' x 28')
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Unfurnished; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($218/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.8% in Blackshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#154 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pierce County (rural): math 52% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #15 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blackshear Elementary School (math 47% / reading 40%, grade F, #364 of 1,228 statewide, top 30%, 812 students, 67% FRL); Pierce County Middle School (math 48% / reading 54%, grade C, #64 of 470 statewide, top 14%, 827 students, 67% FRL); Pierce County High School (math 44% / reading 60%, grade D+, #26 of 424 statewide, top 6%, 1,033 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 88 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,032 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.52%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $88,816
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1223 Hammock Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-12%)	20mo	$78,000	$61	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-23,203
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-19,004
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31516

• Home prices YoY: -9.1%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $504/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,127

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $103	-5% $61	+0% $18	+5% $-24	+10% $-67
Rent	-10% $-73	-5% $-27	+0% $18	+5% $64	+10% $109
Rate	-1.0pp $94	-0.5pp $56	base $18	+0.5pp $-21	+1.0pp $-60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $504 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,379 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$875/yr (+$73/mo · 173.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$504
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,104
• − Management: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$2,416
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$580
• After-tax cash flow: $798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pierce County
• NCES district ID: 1304140
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,523
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3097
• State rank: #15 of 174 in GA

Livability — Blackshear

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #154
• US rank: #9915

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 15,465
• Population (ZIP): 15,465

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,690 people
• By 2030: 19,886 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 20,140 · +2.3%
• By 2050: 20,113 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 19,166 · -2.7%
• By 2100: 16,296 · -17.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.5) · D 11.2% · R 88.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -62.5pp · 2024: -77.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.5 2020: R+75.1 2016: R+74.0 2012: R+66.4 2008: R+62.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.01%
• Current HPI: 259.8612
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $149,900 GIAR
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $135,000 GIAR
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $145,000 GIAR
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $175,000 GIAR

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $504 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.