3923 Gravois Ave · St. Louis, MO 63116

$110,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 712 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 167 Days on market

Built 1921 3,123 sqft lot $154/sqft · 36% below area Est $173k · 36% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming all-brick 1.5-story home featuring 2 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, ideally located in the highly sought-after Tower Grove South neighborhood. Just minutes from vibrant shopping and dining options and the beautiful Tower Grove Park, this home offers the perfect blend of convenience, character, and city living. Step inside to discover classic architectural details, hardwood floors, a warm and inviting living space, and a functional floor plan that offers flexibility for everyday living or entertaining. The solid brick construction adds timeless appeal and lasting value. Property is being sold as-is. Seller to provide no inspections or repairs. Schedule your appointment today.

Key facts

• 3,123 sq ft lot
• Built 1921
• Listed 166 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-492/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $103k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $91k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $91k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 255 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,838 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.60%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,703
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -36.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4132 Miami St	0.35mi	2/1.0	690 (-3%)	1mo	$189,000	$274	78
3959 Parker Ave	0.36mi	2/2.0	792 (+11%)	3mo	$129,900	$164	58
4327 Jessica Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0	656 (-8%)	3mo	$100,000	$152	55
4025 Tholozan Ave	0.18mi	2/2.0	816 (+15%)	10mo	$189,900	$233	55
4032 Winnebago St	0.23mi	2/1.0	802 (+13%)	20mo	$134,900	$168	52
4136 Miami St	0.35mi	1/1.0 (-1)	641 (-10%)	14mo	$164,900	$257	50
4351 Potomac St	0.74mi	2/1.0	672 (-6%)	9mo	$110,000	$164	49
4046 Phillips Ave	0.24mi	2/1.0	814 (+14%)	22mo	$189,900	$233	47
4327 Chippewa St	0.70mi	1/1.0 (-1)	680 (-4%)	11mo	$55,000	$81	46
3534 Lucy St	0.65mi	1/1.0 (-1)	637 (-10%)	4mo	$115,000	$181	44
3720 Virginia Ave	0.73mi	1/1.0 (-1)	814 (+14%)	15mo	$25,000	$31	25
4430 S Spring Ave	0.75mi	2/1.0	816 (+15%)	20mo	$149,900	$184	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-20,770
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-22,806
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63116

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $908 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,631/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$191
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $960

Max offer price $102,756

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3910 Chippewa St Unit 1f St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$770	$1.03	16d	1	0.14mi
3535 Roger Pl Unit LLW St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	650	$845	$1.30	23d	1	0.22mi
3860 Bamberger Ave Unit 3N St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$799	$1.14	17d	1	0.30mi
3862 S Spring Ave Apt 3E St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$695	$0.99	10d	1	0.34mi
3653 S Grand Blvd Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	2050	$1,350	$0.66	1d	4	0.41mi
4192 Meramec St Unit 101 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	20d	1	0.51mi
4192 Meramec St Unit 104 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	675	$850	$1.26	43d	1	0.51mi
4192 Meramec St Unit 105 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$815	$1.16	43d	1	0.51mi
4048 Giles Ave Apt 1S St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	650	$795	$1.22	14d	1	0.54mi
3954 S Grand Blvd Apt 3N St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	650	$625	$0.96	43d	1	0.57mi
3534 Morgan Ford Rd Unit 3534-C St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	650	$1,150	$1.77	43d	1	0.59mi
3625 Morgan Ford Rd Unit 6 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	650	$799	$1.23	43d	1	0.62mi
4101 Dewey Ave Unit 2F St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	650	$775	$1.19	23d	1	0.63mi
3402 Dunnica Ave Unit 3400 1f St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	695	$775	$1.12	23d	1	0.66mi
4301 S 38th St Unit 1s St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	686	$900	$1.31	23d	1	0.67mi
3406 Keokuk St Unit 3406 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	43d	1	0.67mi
3702 Meramec St Unit 1e St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	725	$950	$1.31	7d	1	0.71mi
4341 Morgan Ford Rd Unit F St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$749	$1.00	4d	1	0.72mi
4341 Morganford Rd Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$799	$1.07	43d	1	0.73mi
3611 Wyoming St Unit 3E St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$1,199	$1.60	4d	1	0.74mi
4205 Ellenwood Ave Unit 102 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$899	$1.20	43d	1	0.75mi
4205 Ellenwood Ave Unit 202 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$899	$1.20	23d	1	0.76mi
4227 Ellenwood Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	650	$825	$1.27	16d	1	0.76mi
4231-4233 Ellenwood Ave St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	650	$825	$1.27	14d	1	0.76mi
3179 S Grand Blvd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	650	$1,328	$2.04	2d	3	0.78mi
4377 Chippewa St Unit G St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	400	$600	$1.50	43d	1	0.79mi
4381 Chippewa St Unit B St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	400	$600	$1.50	43d	1	0.80mi
4215 Neosho St Unit 101 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$825	$1.10	43d	1	0.81mi
4407 Chippewa St Unit C St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	400	$795	$1.99	23d	1	0.82mi
3201 Morganford Rd Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	746	$1,725	$2.31	1d	4	0.86mi
4448 Oleatha Ave St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	720	$950	$1.32	20d	1	0.87mi
4329 S Grand Blvd Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	600	$750	$1.25	43d	1	0.89mi
3172 Morganford Rd Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	779	$1,650	$2.12	10d	3	0.90mi
4451 Grace Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$750	$1.07	17d	1	0.92mi
4316 Connecticut St Unit 2F St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$799	$1.14	17d	1	0.92mi
3839 Pennsylvania Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	725	$1,000	$1.38	20d	1	0.97mi
3664 Neosho St Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$750	$1.07	43d	1	0.99mi
4255 Virginia Ave Unit 206 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	506	$750	$1.48	43d	1	0.99mi
3111a Arkansas Ave St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$875	$1.25	43d	1	0.99mi
4305 Virginia Ave Unit 204 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	646	$785	$1.22	14d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 165 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 157 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 156 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $110,000 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 151 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 150 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 149 DOM
14. 2026-02-12
    price $119,900 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    Welcome to this charming all-brick 1.5-story home featuring 2 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, ideally located in the highly sought-after Tower Grove South neighborhood. Just minutes from vibrant shopping and dining options and the beautiful Tower Grove Park, this home offers the perfect blend of convenience, character, and city living. Step inside to discover classic architectural details, hardwood floors, a warm and inviting living space, and a functional floor plan that offers flexibility for everyday living or entertaining. The solid brick construction adds timeless appeal and lasting value. Property is being sold as-is. Seller to provide no inspections or repairs. Schedule your appointment today.

15. 2026-02-12
    price $1,199,000 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    Welcome to this charming all-brick 1.5-story home featuring 2 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, ideally located in the highly sought-after Tower Grove South neighborhood. Just minutes from vibrant shopping and dining options and the beautiful Tower Grove Park, this home offers the perfect blend of convenience, character, and city living. Step inside to discover classic architectural details, hardwood floors, a warm and inviting living space, and a functional floor plan that offers flexibility for everyday living or entertaining. The solid brick construction adds timeless appeal and lasting value. Property is being sold as-is. Seller to provide no inspections or repairs. Schedule your appointment today.

16. 2026-01-03
    listed $125,000 Active 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    Welcome to this charming all-brick 1.5-story home featuring 2 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, ideally located in the highly sought-after Tower Grove South neighborhood. Just minutes from vibrant shopping and dining options and the beautiful Tower Grove Park, this home offers the perfect blend of convenience, character, and city living. Step inside to discover classic architectural details, hardwood floors, a warm and inviting living space, and a functional floor plan that offers flexibility for everyday living or entertaining. The solid brick construction adds timeless appeal and lasting value. Property is being sold as-is. Seller to provide no inspections or repairs. Schedule your appointment today.

17. 2026-01-02
    historical $125,000 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    Welcome to this charming all-brick 1.5-story home featuring 2 bedrooms and 2.5 baths, ideally located in the highly sought-after Tower Grove South neighborhood. Just minutes from vibrant shopping and dining options and the beautiful Tower Grove Park, this home offers the perfect blend of convenience, character, and city living. Step inside to discover classic architectural details, hardwood floors, a warm and inviting living space, and a functional floor plan that offers flexibility for everyday living or entertaining. The solid brick construction adds timeless appeal and lasting value. Property is being sold as-is. Seller to provide no inspections or repairs. Schedule your appointment today.

18. 2025-05-10
    price $139,900
19. 2025-03-18
    listed $149,900 Active
20. 1996-08-14
    soldstatus
21. 1996-08-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,631 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,631 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,901
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,631
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$872
• − Management: −$872
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$2,387
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$573
• After-tax cash flow: $81/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 42,170
• Household income: $61,433
• Rent vs Own: 43.1% rent · 56.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1923.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, Philippines
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -271.19%
• Current HPI: 215.7108
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $119,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $1,199,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-03 Listed $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Coming Soon $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-10 Price Changed $139,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-18 Listed $149,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-08-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-08-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,631 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.