1811 Shumway · Casper, WY 82601

$205,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,838 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1975 7,841 sqft lot Est $305k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious bi-level home located in a great South Central location. 4 bedrooms, spacious kitchen with breakfast nook and a single garage. Steel siding and newer windows. With a little work, this will be a great home. Contact Jennifer Gladson for your personal tour at 307-259-5074.

Key facts

• 7,841 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1975

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13 ($157/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.0% in Casper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#8 in WY, #2,629 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, health & safety F.
• Natrona County School District #1 (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 41 in WY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #128 of 151 statewide, top 86%, 459 students, 67% FRL); Centennial Middle School (math 37% / reading 54%, grade D+, #40 of 55 statewide, top 72%, 796 students, 31% FRL); Kelly Walsh High School (math 49% / reading 60%, grade C-, #18 of 75 statewide, top 30%, 2,051 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 225 active listings in the ZIP; 310 units permitted in Natrona County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Natrona County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,055 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.27%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,108
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1935 Lennox Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,820 (-1%)	1mo	$267,000	$147	82
1746 Glendale Ave	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,728 (-6%)	2mo	$178,000	$103	80
1854 S Lennox	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,968 (+7%)	1mo	$280,000	$142	78
1881 Shumway Ave	0.11mi	3/1.8 (-1)	1,728 (-6%)	2mo	$319,000	$185	77
1635 S Fenway St	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,950 (+6%)	1mo	$389,000	$199	75
2131 S Fairdale Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,788 (-3%)	1mo	$335,000	$187	74
1888 Shattuck Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,671 (-9%)	1mo	$328,000	$196	73
1306 E 24th St	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,764 (-4%)	2mo	$325,000	$184	67
1416 S Jackson St	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,936 (+5%)	2mo	$295,000	$152	59
1405 S Jackson St	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,716 (-7%)	2mo	$285,000	$166	57
1728 S Jefferson St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,772 (-4%)	2mo	$215,000	$121	55
2251 S Washington St	0.59mi	5/1.8 (+1)	1,990 (+8%)	2mo	$262,000	$132	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-24,061
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $18,045
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Wyoming: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+25
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable; small market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 82601

• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,591 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $996/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,574

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $129	-5% $71	+0% $13	+5% $-45	+10% $-103
Rent	-10% $-113	-5% $-50	+0% $13	+5% $76	+10% $139
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $65	base $13	+0.5pp $-40	+1.0pp $-94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-06-05
   listed $205,000 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $996 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,250 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$255/yr (+$21/mo · 25.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,087
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$996
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,527
• − Management: −$1,527
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$3,435
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$824
• After-tax cash flow: $982/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natrona County School District #1
• NCES district ID: 5604510
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $55,217
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3437
• State rank: #32 of 41 in WY

Livability — Casper

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #2629

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Casper, WY
• County: Natrona County · 72,922 people
• City population: 72,922
• Metro: Casper, WY
• Population (ZIP): 26,721
• Household income: $67,642
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 749.0

Population outlook (Natrona County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,530 people
• By 2030: 107,084 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 124,838 · +26.7%
• By 2050: 143,617 · +45.8%
• By 2075: 192,378 · +95.2%
• By 2100: 228,435 · +131.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Natrona

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.6) · D 24.8% · R 73.5% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -34.4pp · 2024: -48.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.6 2020: R+47.6 2016: R+52.2 2012: R+41.1 2008: R+34.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.42%
• Current HPI: 181.2192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.97%
• Metro: Casper, WY
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+32.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Delisted — WMLS
• 2026-06-01 Listed $205,000 WMLS
• 2019-11-26 Sold (MLS) — WMLS
• 2019-10-09 Listed $155,000 WMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $996 · -23.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.