18222 Lynbrook Rd · Bithlo, FL 32820

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 952 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1969 10,639 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * * CASH ONLY - NO FINANCING * * * Own the land. NO HOA. 3/2 mobile home fresh paint throughout. Owner will put carpet in all rooms buyer can choose color. Metal roof.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1969
• Listed 19 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Lot approximately 0.24 acre (0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; Faces north; Entry on one level
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on or before public records (living area source: public records)
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Exterior storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Freezer; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen open to family room; Window treatments; Water filtration system
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (29.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.5% in Bithlo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#808 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $119k; list at $249k implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,000 (29.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.83%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-47,225
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-50,299
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32820

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $949/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,884

Max offer price $230,251

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $35	-5% $-36	+0% $-106	+5% $-177	+10% $-247
Rent	-10% $-244	-5% $-175	+0% $-106	+5% $-37	+10% $32
Rate	-1.0pp $19	-0.5pp $-43	base $-106	+0.5pp $-171	+1.0pp $-236

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17778 Caudel Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,750	$1.59	25d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    remarks 662-char remark
15. 2026-06-01
    remarks 620-char remark
16. 2026-06-01
    listed $249,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $949 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,067 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,117/yr (+$93/mo · 117.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$949
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$5,746
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,379
• After-tax cash flow: $105/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bithlo

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #808
• US rank: #19212

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bithlo, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,130

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 18% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Italian 1% Armenian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Jamaica, Mexico
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.82%
• Current HPI: 279.7452
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3220.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $249,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $119,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-26 Sold (MLS) $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-16 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-30 Listed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2002-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1980-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $949 · +13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.