4602 Gates Dr · Bismarck, ND 58503

$135,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 44 Days on market

Built 1996 Est $136k · at est. $526/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

OPEN & SPACIOUS-LOTS OF CABINETS-CATHEDRAL CEILINGS-MSTR BATH W/ GARDEN TUB & SEPARATE SHOWER-2 SKYLIGHTS-VINYL SDG-NEUTRAL DECOR-LIKE NEW-ALL WALKIN CLOSETS-WHITE APPLIANCES Basement - NONE.

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Large living room
• Apple tree

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• ACCOMMODATING KITCHEN
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BACKYARD IS FULLY FENCED
• APPLE TREE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $136k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $480 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $136k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.1% in Bismarck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary School (math 58% / reading 52%, grade C, #38 of 236 statewide, top 16%, 490 students, 14% FRL); Simle Middle School (math 34% / reading 39%, grade F, #22 of 35 statewide, top 62%, 1,040 students, 20% FRL); Legacy High School (math 20% / reading 37%, grade F, #104 of 144 statewide, top 72%, 1,418 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 486 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $940 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.

Recommended offer $131,823 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.15%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $136,416
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4602 Gates Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	1mo	$135,900	$87	99
4634 Gates Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	0mo	$135,000	$86	98
4501 Gates Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	9mo	$140,000	$89	88
4337 Drake Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	4mo	$86,000	$55	85
4422 Arlington Drive Dr N	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+7%)	8mo	$149,900	$89	75
4333 Hale Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,708 (+9%)	2mo	$99,900	$58	73
4251 Claridge Loop	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,782 (+14%)	5mo	$160,000	$90	60
5105 Redcoat Loop	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-14%)	11mo	$129,800	$96	58
2500 Centennial Rd #520	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+7%)	1mo	$70,000	$42	58
4606 Rebel Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	13mo	$169,900	$126	57
2500 Centennial Rd #410	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,424 (-9%)	0mo	$49,000	$34	55
2500 Centennial Rd #244	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,446 (-8%)	5mo	$60,000	$41	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $21,030
• Equity at exit: $20,263

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $114,290
• Equity at exit: $11,750

Cash invested: $38,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58503

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 486
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,305 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$713
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $546/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$526
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $480

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,697

Max offer price $135,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $557	-5% $519	+0% $480	+5% $442	+10% $403
Rent	-10% $298	-5% $389	+0% $480	+5% $571	+10% $662
Rate	-1.0pp $549	-0.5pp $515	base $480	+0.5pp $445	+1.0pp $409

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,975
• Closing costs: $4,077
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4129 Oklahoma Ln Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.5–3.0	2285	$3,419	$1.50	22d	6	1.22mi
3103 E Calgary Ave Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1079	$1,860	$1.72	22d	6	1.33mi
1511 Sharloh Loop Bismarck, ND	3.0	2.5	1728	$2,050	$1.19	22d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $526 · $6,312/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-21
   status Active
3. 2026-03-03
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-05
   status Active
5. 2026-01-25
   status Pending
6. 2026-01-20
   listed $135,900 Active
7. 2000-05-31
   soldstatus 203-char remark

   Show marketing remark (203 chars)

   OPEN & SPACIOUS-LOTS OF CABINETS-CATHEDRAL CEILINGS-MSTR BATH W/ GARDEN TUB & SEPARATE SHOWER-2 SKYLIGHTS-VINYL SDG-NEUTRAL DECOR-LIKE NEW-ALL WALKIN CLOSETS-WHITE APPLIANCES Basement - NONE.

8. 2000-02-10
   listed $46,900 203-char remark

   Show marketing remark (203 chars)

   OPEN & SPACIOUS-LOTS OF CABINETS-CATHEDRAL CEILINGS-MSTR BATH W/ GARDEN TUB & SEPARATE SHOWER-2 SKYLIGHTS-VINYL SDG-NEUTRAL DECOR-LIKE NEW-ALL WALKIN CLOSETS-WHITE APPLIANCES Basement - NONE.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $546 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,332 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$786/yr (+$65/mo · 143.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,662
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,613
• − Property taxes: −$546
• − Insurance: −$680
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,213
• − Management: −$2,213
• − HOA: −$6,312
• − Depreciation: −$3,953
• Taxable income: $4,132
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$992
• After-tax cash flow: $4,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2213

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 97,300 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 37,683
• Household income: $102,333
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 814.0

Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Scotch-Irish 4% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.96%
• Current HPI: 223.9683
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.79%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

+189.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — GNMLS
• 2026-03-21 Relisted — GNMLS
• 2026-03-03 Pending — GNMLS
• 2026-02-05 Relisted — GNMLS
• 2026-01-25 Pending — GNMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $135,900 GNMLS
• 2000-05-31 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 2000-02-10 Listed $46,900 GNMLS