124 Little Foxhold · Mesquite, TX 75181

$275,359

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · SingleFamily · 24 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $181/sqft · 24% below area Est $362k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($453/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.4% in Mesquite — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Achziger El (math 31% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 846 students, 75% FRL); Berry Middle (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 579 students, 76% FRL); Horn H S (math 41% / reading 36%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,029 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 858 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 77d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,655 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.59%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $362,337
• List price: $275,359
• Delta: -24.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1809 Forest Wood	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,643 (+8%)	23mo	$389,990	$237	62
2603 Palisades Pl	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,686 (+11%)	10mo	$210,000	$125	57
2525 Widgeon Way	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-9%)	12mo	$265,000	$191	44
2602 Whitetail Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+8%)	15mo	$330,000	$200	41
2220 Waterway Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,679 (+10%)	16mo	$267,000	$159	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-49,216
• Equity at exit: $41,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-66,841
• Equity at exit: $23,808

Cash invested: $77,101 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 35 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 19.1 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $364,990 ($210/sqft)
• Median days on market: 155 d
• This list price: 6% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75181

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 858
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,457 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,444
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,130/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,409

Max offer price $275,359

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $228	-5% $133	+0% $38	+5% $-57	+10% $-153
Rent	-10% $-156	-5% $-59	+0% $38	+5% $135	+10% $232
Rate	-1.0pp $176	-0.5pp $108	base $38	+0.5pp $-34	+1.0pp $-106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,840
• Closing costs: $8,261
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2600 Waterloo Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,900	$1.30	184d	1	0.40mi
2508 Hawk Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1771	$2,200	$1.24	10d	1	0.62mi
2508 Hawk Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1771	$2,225	$1.26	75d	1	0.62mi
2616 Widgeon Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1619	$2,800	$1.73	27d	1	0.66mi
2616 Widgeon Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1619	$2,800	$1.73	10d	1	0.66mi
2528 Widgeon Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	2223	$2,609	$1.17	2d	1	0.68mi
2213 Creek Royal Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$1,850	$1.23	184d	1	0.74mi
2213 Creek Royal Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$1,850	$1.23	163d	1	0.74mi
2209 Amber Spgs Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.5	1628	$2,105	$1.29	34d	1	0.78mi
2516 Buck Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1562	$2,850	$1.82	65d	1	0.80mi
2524 Park Valley Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,020	$1.49	124d	1	0.82mi
2124 Creek Royal Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$2,130	$1.45	65d	1	0.83mi
2136 Walden Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$2,250	$1.32	184d	1	0.83mi
2124 Amber Spgs Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$2,649	$1.36	2d	1	0.84mi
2024 Emerald Oaks Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1621	$1,999	$1.23	31d	1	0.89mi
2024 Emerald Oaks Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1621	$1,999	$1.23	19d	1	0.89mi
2025 Birch Bnd Mesquite, TX	3.0	3.0	1711	$2,599	$1.52	87d	1	0.90mi
2009 Creek Royal Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,925	$1.36	2d	1	0.93mi
2008 Birch Bnd Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,799	$1.77	148d	1	0.94mi
2302 Highbank Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1783	$2,145	$1.20	184d	1	0.95mi
3012 Southern Hills Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1957	$2,700	$1.38	184d	1	0.97mi
2829 Snowy Owl Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1873	$2,050	$1.09	10d	1	0.97mi
2313 Austin Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1758	$2,295	$1.31	10d	1	0.98mi
2840 Helen Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.5	1628	$2,270	$1.39	23d	1	0.99mi
2705 Hidden Springs Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1656	$1,990	$1.20	86d	1	1.00mi
2505 Hidden Springs Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	2020	$2,101	$1.04	43d	1	1.01mi
2628 Hidden Springs Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,965	$1.44	77d	1	1.03mi
2816 Blue Heron Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2065	$2,500	$1.21	148d	1	1.05mi
2816 Blue Heron Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2065	$2,425	$1.17	93d	1	1.05mi
2338 Stillwater Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,300	$1.30	161d	1	1.05mi
2729 Bent Brook Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1726	$2,075	$1.20	71d	1	1.06mi
2314 Stillwater Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1995	$2,600	$1.30	140d	1	1.07mi
2314 Stillwater Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1995	$2,600	$1.30	165d	1	1.07mi
2632 Bent Brook Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$1,995	$1.23	146d	1	1.09mi
2321 Bent Brook Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	2029	$2,460	$1.21	148d	1	1.09mi
2820 Bent Brook Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,499	$1.84	114d	1	1.09mi
2824 Bent Brook Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$1,945	$1.20	157d	1	1.09mi
2617 Spring Rain Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,369	$1.00	20d	1	1.11mi
2617 Spring Rain Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,369	$1.00	10d	1	1.11mi
2616 Spring Rain Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1318	$1,759	$1.33	3d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-09-05
   days on market $275,359 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-09-04
   days on market $275,359 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-09-02
   days on market $275,359 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-08-31
   pricedays on market $275,359 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $262,999 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $262,999 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $262,999 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $262,999 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $262,999 Active 14 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,479
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,424
• − Property taxes: −$4,130
• − Insurance: −$1,377
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,358
• − Management: −$2,358
• − Depreciation: −$8,010
• Taxable loss: −$4,180
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,003
• After-tax cash flow: $1,456/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 18 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-level home is in excellent condition with a spacious open floorplan and modern finishes. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor exterior updates to enhance curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and cleanliness ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Achziger El F TX #2,208/4,322 Nat'l #24,614/41,679 Middle Dr Don Woolley Middle F TX #1,177/1,662 Nat'l #9,793/14,009 High Horn H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesquite ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,372
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6606
• State rank: #536 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Mesquite

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #7743

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesquite, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,979,839 people
• City population: 150,788
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,788
• Household income: $111,052
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 29% of renters

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Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 21% White 16% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.63%
• Current HPI: 257.0959
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B