14578 Bass Dr Spc 9 · Mountain Gate, CA 96003

$95,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured public records · 25 Days on market

Built 2007 Est $92k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked into a peaceful setting with a true country feel, this well cared for 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offers comfort, space, and a welcoming community atmosphere. Surrounded by mature trees, wildlife, and mountain charm, you'll love the quiet location with no freeway noise while still being conveniently close to the lake and everyday amenities. Features include: • Bright and airy interior with abundant natural light • Fenced and gated backyard • Storage shed for extra space and organization • Large parking pad with carport for 2 vehicles • Located in a family park with fruit tree-lined streets • Community playground and neighborhood events • Pe

Key facts

• Large parking pad
• Community playground
• Storage shed

Tags

• FENCED AND GATED BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED
• LARGE PARKING PAD
• COMMUNITY PLAYGROUND
• FRUIT TREE-LINED STREETS
• PETS ALLOWED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a managed mobile home park

Exterior

• Parking: Two-space carport; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park; Mobile home
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Has a view

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $96k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $96k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,255 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: cost of living D+, schools F, crime F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 393 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $663 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,461 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.34%
• DSCR: 3.15
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $91,632
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14578 Bass Dr #7	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,180 (+7%)	3mo	$55,000	$47	86
14578 Bass Dr #14	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-2%)	13mo	$40,000	$37	86
14578 Bass Dr #30	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,012 (-8%)	14mo	$78,000	$77	75
14740 Bass Dr #8	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-4%)	3mo	$105,000	$99	74
14740 Bass Dr #36	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+4%)	7mo	$119,990	$104	69
14740 Bass Dr #11	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,065 (-4%)	11mo	$89,000	$84	67
14578 Bass Dr #17	0.00mi	3/2.0	960 (-13%)	22mo	$65,000	$68	60
14740 Bass Dr #23	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+9%)	11mo	$99,000	$83	59
19821 Califontana Way Way	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+4%)	19mo	$204,000	$177	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $59,778
• Equity at exit: $14,299

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.29×
• Total profit: $168,788
• Equity at exit: $8,292

Cash invested: $26,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 393
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,088 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$503
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $300/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $1,082

Break-even live

Break-even rent $719

Max offer price $95,900

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,136	-5% $1,109	+0% $1,082	+5% $1,055	+10% $1,027
Rent	-10% $917	-5% $999	+0% $1,082	+5% $1,164	+10% $1,247
Rate	-1.0pp $1,130	-0.5pp $1,106	base $1,082	+0.5pp $1,057	+1.0pp $1,032

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,975
• Closing costs: $2,877
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,900 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,900 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,900 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,900 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,900 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,900 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,900 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,900 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,900 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $95,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,900 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,900 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,900 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,900 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,900 Active 3 DOM
18. 2026-05-27
    listed $95,900 Active
19. 2020-02-14
    listed $54,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $300 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $729 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$429/yr (+$36/mo · 143.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 45 unhealthy d/yr today · 48 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,057
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,372
• − Property taxes: −$300
• − Insurance: −$480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,005
• − Management: −$2,005
• − Depreciation: −$2,790
• Taxable income: $12,107
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,906
• After-tax cash flow: $10,075/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

Livability — Mountain Gate

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #1255
• US rank: #26371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mountain Gate, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+74.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $95,900 SAOR
• 2020-02-14 Listed $54,900 SAOR

Property tax history

-2.1%/yr

Latest (2020): $300 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.