Kitson Plan · Crosby, TX 77532

$209,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,409 sqft · SingleFamily · 415 Days on market

Excellent condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $209,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $239,355.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($940/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.8% in Crosby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1446 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 415 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $184,791 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 415 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.40%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,355
• List price: $209,990
• Delta: -12.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1730 West Stroker Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-6%)	0mo	$212,990	$160	87
20130 White Dove Trl	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,409 (0%)	0mo	$201,990	$143	81
20106 White Dove Trl	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+1%)	1mo	$203,990	$144	78
20074 White Dove Trl	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+1%)	1mo	$207,990	$147	77
1762 Green Warbler Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+9%)	1mo	$249,990	$162	76
20118 Green Mallard St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-4%)	0mo	$174,990	$129	76
20042 White Dove Trl	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+1%)	2mo	$172,540	$122	75
20134 Green Mallard St	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,360 (-4%)	2mo	$162,440	$119	73
1726 Green Warbler Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,587 (+13%)	1mo	$224,990	$142	72
20127 Green Mallard St	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,360 (-4%)	2mo	$181,990	$134	72
20135 Green Mallard St	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,535 (+9%)	1mo	$175,990	$115	61
20102 White Dove Trl	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+14%)	1mo	$211,990	$132	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-37,068
• Equity at exit: $35,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-38,870
• Equity at exit: $20,695

Cash invested: $67,019 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 31 active · 39 under contract
• Months of supply: 2.9 mo (34%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $201,990 ($145/sqft)
• Median days on market: 25 d
• This list price: 65% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1446
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,193 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,255
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$299 /mo · $3,590/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,094

Max offer price $239,355

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $244	-5% $161	+0% $78	+5% $-4	+10% $-87
Rent	-10% $-95	-5% $-8	+0% $78	+5% $165	+10% $252
Rate	-1.0pp $199	-0.5pp $139	base $78	+0.5pp $16	+1.0pp $-47

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,839
• Closing costs: $7,181
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20119 Iron Winds St Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,895	$1.34	4d	1	0.20mi
20034 White Dove Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,850	$1.45	62d	1	0.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $209,990 Active 415 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $209,990 Active 413 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $209,990 Active 412 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $209,990 Active 411 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   pricedays on market $209,990 Active 410 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $207,990 Active 407 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $207,990 Active 406 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $207,990 Active 405 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   pricedays on market $207,990 Active 404 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $205,990 Active 402 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $205,990 Active 400 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $205,990 Active 399 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $205,990 Active 398 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $205,990 Active 397 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $205,990 Active 396 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $205,990 Active 394 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $205,990 Active 393 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $205,990 Active 392 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $205,990 Active 391 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $219,990 Active 389 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $219,990 Active 388 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $219,990 Active 387 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $219,990 Active 386 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $219,990 Active 385 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    price $219,990 Active 383 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $229,990 Active 383 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $229,990 Active 382 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $229,990 Active 381 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $229,990 Active 380 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $229,990 Active 379 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $229,990 Active 378 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $229,990 Active 377 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $229,990 Active 376 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $229,990 Active 375 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $229,990 Active 374 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $229,990 Active 373 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $229,990 Active 370 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $229,990 Active 368 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    pricedays on market $229,990 Active 367 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $246,990 Active 364 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $246,990 Active 363 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $246,990 Active 362 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $246,990 Active 361 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $246,990 Active 359 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $246,990 Active 355 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $246,990 Active 354 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $246,990 Active 353 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $246,990 Active 350 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $246,990 Active 348 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $246,990 Active 347 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,316
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,408
• − Property taxes: −$3,590
• − Insurance: −$1,197
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,105
• − Management: −$2,105
• − Depreciation: −$6,963
• Taxable loss: −$3,053
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$733
• After-tax cash flow: $1,672/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a modern interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can attract more potential buyers ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

High Crosby H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 33,780
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

---

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-06-19 Listed $246,990 Zillow