Kitson Plan · Crosby, TX 77532

$208,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,409 sqft · SingleFamily · 462 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $208,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $239,237.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-384/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (1.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.8% in Crosby — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1723 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 462 days — a 12% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $183,911 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 462 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.57%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,237
• List price: $208,990
• Delta: -12.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1730 West Stroker Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-6%)	2mo	$212,990	$160	86
20139 Iron Winds Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,489 (+6%)	1mo	$248,990	$167	82
20130 White Dove Trl	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,409 (0%)	2mo	$201,990	$143	80
20078 White Dove Trl	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,409 (0%)	0mo	$199,990	$142	79
20106 White Dove Trl	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+1%)	3mo	$203,990	$144	77
1762 Green Warbler Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+9%)	2mo	$249,990	$162	75
20118 Green Mallard St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-4%)	2mo	$174,990	$129	74
1726 Green Warbler Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,587 (+13%)	2mo	$224,990	$142	71
20135 White Dove Trl	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-10%)	1mo	$185,990	$146	64
20110 White Dove Trl	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-10%)	1mo	$181,990	$143	63
20111 White Dove Trl	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+14%)	2mo	$213,990	$133	50
20102 White Dove Trl	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+14%)	3mo	$211,990	$132	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-43,864
• Equity at exit: $35,671

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-52,998
• Equity at exit: $20,685

Cash invested: $66,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 36 active · 57 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.1 mo (25%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $200,990 ($141/sqft)
• Median days on market: 29 d
• This list price: 61% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +20.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1723
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,052 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,255
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$299 /mo · $3,589/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,093

Max offer price $234,611

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $133	-5% $51	+0% $-32	+5% $-115	+10% $-197
Rent	-10% $-194	-5% $-113	+0% $-32	+5% $49	+10% $130
Rate	-1.0pp $89	-0.5pp $29	base $-32	+0.5pp $-94	+1.0pp $-157

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,809
• Closing costs: $7,177
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20119 Iron Winds St Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,795	$1.27	11d	1	0.20mi
20110 White Dove Trl Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	5d	1	0.42mi
20034 White Dove Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,850	$1.45	108d	1	0.49mi
711 Antelope Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1796	$2,500	$1.39	3d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $208,990 Active 462 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $208,990 Active 461 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $208,990 Active 460 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $208,990 Active 459 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $208,990 Active 458 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $208,990 Active 457 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $208,990 Active 456 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $208,990 Active 455 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $208,990 Active 454 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $208,990 Active 453 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $208,990 Active 452 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $208,990 Active 451 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $208,990 Active 450 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $208,990 Active 449 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $207,990 Active 443 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $207,990 Active 442 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    pricedays on market $207,990 Active 440 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $206,990 Active 438 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $206,990 Active 436 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $206,990 Active 435 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $206,990 Active 434 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $206,990 Active 432 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $206,990 Active 431 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $206,990 Active 430 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $206,990 Active 429 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $206,990 Active 428 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $206,990 Active 427 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $206,990 Active 426 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    price $206,990 Active 425 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $209,990 Active 425 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $209,990 Active 424 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $209,990 Active 423 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $209,990 Active 422 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $209,990 Active 421 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $209,990 Active 420 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $209,990 Active 419 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $209,990 Active 418 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $209,990 Active 417 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $209,990 Active 416 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $209,990 Active 415 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $209,990 Active 413 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $209,990 Active 412 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $209,990 Active 411 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    pricedays on market $209,990 Active 410 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $207,990 Active 407 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $207,990 Active 406 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $207,990 Active 405 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    pricedays on market $207,990 Active 404 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $205,990 Active 402 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $205,990 Active 400 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,628
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,401
• − Property taxes: −$3,589
• − Insurance: −$1,196
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,970
• − Management: −$1,970
• − Depreciation: −$6,960
• Taxable loss: −$4,458
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,070
• After-tax cash flow: $686/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a modern interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can attract more potential buyers ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

High Crosby H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 33,780
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-06-19 Listed $246,990 Zillow