18 C Blue Jay St · Cedar Glen West, NJ 08759

$57,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 970 sqft · SingleFamily · 107 Days on market

55+ age-restricted Built 1969 Good condition $470/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Cedar Glen West, a desirable 55+ Co-Op community! This well-maintained 1-bedroom, 1-bath home features beautiful hardwood floors, central A/C, and a bright kitchen with granite countertops and a solar tube skylight that fills the space with natural light. The updated bath offers a convenient shower stall. Enjoy the large open backyard area with plenty of sunshine and peaceful views. Monthly HOA fee includes property taxes, water, sewer, trash collection, lawn maintenance, snow removal, roof repair/replacement, furnace repair/replacement, and hot water heater repair/replacement. Conveniently located near swimming lakes and just a short drive to Atlantic City.

Key facts

• Shower stall
• Updated bath
• Central a/c

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• CENTRAL A/C
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SOLAR TUBE SKYLIGHT
• UPDATED BATH
• SHOWER STALL

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $57,900 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $58k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $868 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $58k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#366 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manchester Township Elementary School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #642 of 1,303 statewide, top 50%, 514 students, 45% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 23% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1083 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,200/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $400 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,689 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 64.24%
• DSCR: 3.86
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,212
• List price: $57,900
• Delta: -34.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Heron St Unit D	0.11mi	1/1.0	980 (+1%)	4mo	$120,000	$122	89
17 Heron St Unit D	0.12mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	7mo	$55,000	$57	88
4 Flamingo Ter Unit A	0.12mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	8mo	$45,000	$46	88
5 Blue Jay St Unit A	0.15mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	6mo	$53,000	$55	88
16 B Dove St	0.21mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	4mo	$73,000	$75	87
1 B W Lake Dr	0.30mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	1mo	$56,000	$58	85
18 Dove St Unit A	0.21mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	9mo	$69,900	$72	83
6 Dove St Unit D	0.28mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	6mo	$80,000	$82	82
22 C Robin St	0.25mi	2/1.0 (+1)	970 (0%)	6mo	$158,000	$163	78
6 C Swallow St	0.29mi	2/1.0 (+1)	970 (0%)	5mo	$110,000	$113	77
9 D Dove St Unit D	0.29mi	2/1.0 (+1)	970 (0%)	9mo	$57,500	$59	74
13B Pheasant St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+13%)	3mo	$95,500	$87	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.85×
• Total profit: $46,215
• Equity at exit: $8,633

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.95×
• Total profit: $112,726
• Equity at exit: $5,006

Cash invested: $16,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 21 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $89,999 ($93/sqft)
• Median days on market: 91 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +10.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 1083
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$304
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$72 /mo · $868/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$470
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $868

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,101

Max offer price $57,900

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $908	-5% $888	+0% $868	+5% $848	+10% $828
Rent	-10% $694	-5% $781	+0% $868	+5% $955	+10% $1,042
Rate	-1.0pp $897	-0.5pp $883	base $868	+0.5pp $853	+1.0pp $838

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,475
• Closing costs: $1,737
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	139d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 970Located in Manchester Township, Ocean County
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of 470.0Association amenities: community room, clubhouse, common area, landscaping, bocci; no poolAssociation fee includes trash, common area, lawn maintenance, sewer, snow removal, waterAssociation name: Cedar Glen West

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Cooperative ownershipQuad model
• Construction: Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Timberline shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: StoveRefrigeratorGas cooking
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heatingBaseboard heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Blinds/ShadesCeiling fan(s)Support rails
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

HOA detail $470/mo · $5,640/yr

• Likely covers: watersewertrashsnow removal

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   pricedays on market $57,900 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $62,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $62,000 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $62,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $62,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $62,000 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $62,000 Active 101 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $62,000 Active 100 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $62,000 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $62,000 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $62,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    pricedays on market $62,000 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $64,900 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $64,900 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $64,900 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $64,900 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $64,900 Active 84 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    price $64,900 Active 82 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $67,500 Active 82 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $67,500 Active 81 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $67,500 Active 80 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $67,500 Active 79 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $67,500 Active 78 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $67,500 Active 77 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $67,500 Active 76 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $67,500 Active 75 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $67,500 Active 74 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    price $67,500 Active 73 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $75,000 Active 73 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $75,000 Active 72 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $75,000 Active 71 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $75,000 Active 70 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $75,000 Active 69 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $75,000 Active 68 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $75,000 Active 67 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $75,000 Active 66 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $75,000 Active 65 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $75,000 Active 64 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $75,000 Active 63 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $75,000 Active 62 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 61 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $75,000 Active 59 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 58 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $75,000 Active 57 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 56 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 53 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 51 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $75,000 Active 50 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $75,000 Active 48 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $75,000 Active 46 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,243
• − Property taxes: −$868
• − Insurance: −$290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − HOA: −$5,640
• − Depreciation: −$1,684
• Taxable income: $10,450
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,508
• After-tax cash flow: $7,906/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,850–$14,550 screening

This well-maintained 1-bedroom, 1-bath home features beautiful hardwood floors, central A/C, and a bright kitchen with granite countertops. The home is located in a desirable 55+ Co-Op community with a large open backyard area and peaceful views.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Granite countertops are durable and timeless, increasing the home's resale value ↑
• Resale Replace flooring — Hardwood floors are durable and timeless, increasing the home's resale value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Manchester Township Elementary School F NJ #642/1,303 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 Middle Manchester Township Middle School F NJ #226/431 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Manchester Township High School F NJ #290/399 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Cedar Glen West

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #12309

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Glen West, NJ
• County: Ocean · 586,991 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 970Located in Manchester Township, Ocean County
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of 470.0Association amenities: community room, clubhouse, common area, landscaping, bocci; no poolAssociation fee includes trash, common area, lawn maintenance, sewer, snow removal, waterAssociation name: Cedar Glen West

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Cooperative ownershipQuad model
• Construction: Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Timberline shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: StoveRefrigeratorGas cooking
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heatingBaseboard heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Blinds/ShadesCeiling fan(s)Support rails
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $79,000 MOMLS