18 C Blue Jay St · Manchester, NJ 08759

$55,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 970 sqft · SingleFamily · 153 Days on market

55+ age-restricted Built 1969 Good condition $510/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Cedar Glen West, a desirable 55+ Co-Op community! This well-maintained 1-bedroom, 1-bath home features beautiful hardwood floors, central A/C, and a bright kitchen with granite countertops and a solar tube skylight that fills the space with natural light. The updated bath offers a convenient shower stall. Enjoy the large open backyard area with plenty of sunshine and peaceful views. Monthly HOA fee includes property taxes, water, sewer, trash collection, lawn maintenance, snow removal, roof repair/replacement, furnace repair/replacement, and hot water heater repair/replacement. Conveniently located near swimming lakes and just a short drive to Atlantic City.

Key facts

• Shower stall
• Updated bath
• Central a/c

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• CENTRAL A/C
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SOLAR TUBE SKYLIGHT
• UPDATED BATH
• SHOWER STALL

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $55,000 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $848 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.8% vs local median 4.3% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manchester Township Elementary School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #642 of 1,303 statewide, top 50%, 514 students, 45% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 23% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1273 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,200/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.07%
• DSCR: 3.94
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $97,300
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -43.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 A Cardinal St	0.09mi	2/1.0 (+1)	970 (0%)	1mo	$75,000	$77	90
12 Heron St Unit D	0.11mi	1/1.0	980 (+1%)	6mo	$120,000	$122	88
17 Heron St Unit D	0.12mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	9mo	$55,000	$57	87
4 Flamingo Ter Unit A	0.12mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	9mo	$45,000	$46	87
5 Blue Jay St Unit A	0.15mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	8mo	$53,000	$55	86
16 B Dove St	0.21mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	5mo	$73,000	$75	86
1 B W Lake Dr	0.30mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	2mo	$56,000	$58	84
18 Dove St Unit A	0.21mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	10mo	$69,900	$72	82
6 Dove St Unit D	0.28mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	8mo	$80,000	$82	80
22 C Robin St	0.25mi	2/1.0 (+1)	970 (0%)	8mo	$158,000	$163	77
6 C Swallow St	0.29mi	2/1.0 (+1)	970 (0%)	7mo	$110,000	$113	76
13B Pheasant St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+13%)	5mo	$95,500	$87	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.95×
• Total profit: $45,438
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 69.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.18×
• Total profit: $110,513
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 23 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 27.6 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $89,000 ($91/sqft)
• Median days on market: 92 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +10.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 1273
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$510
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $848

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,127

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $886	-5% $867	+0% $848	+5% $829	+10% $810
Rent	-10% $674	-5% $761	+0% $848	+5% $935	+10% $1,022
Rate	-1.0pp $876	-0.5pp $862	base $848	+0.5pp $834	+1.0pp $819

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	184d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 970Located in Manchester Township, Ocean County
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of 470.0Association amenities: community room, clubhouse, common area, landscaping, bocci; no poolAssociation fee includes trash, common area, lawn maintenance, sewer, snow removal, waterAssociation name: Cedar Glen West

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Cooperative ownershipQuad model
• Construction: Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Timberline shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: StoveRefrigeratorGas cooking
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heatingBaseboard heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Blinds/ShadesCeiling fan(s)Support rails
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

HOA detail $510/mo · $6,120/yr

• Likely covers: watersewertrashsnow removal

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $55,000 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $55,000 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $55,000 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $55,000 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $55,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $55,000 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $55,000 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $55,000 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $55,000 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $55,000 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $55,000 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $55,000 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $55,000 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $55,000 Active 138 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $55,000 Active 137 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $55,000 Active 136 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $55,000 Active 135 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $55,000 Active 134 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $55,000 Active 133 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $55,000 Active 132 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $55,000 Active 131 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $55,000 Active 130 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    pricedays on market $55,000 Active 129 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $57,900 Active 128 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $57,900 Active 127 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $57,900 Active 126 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $57,900 Active 125 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $57,900 Active 124 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $57,900 Active 123 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $57,900 Active 122 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $57,900 Active 121 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $57,900 Active 120 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $57,900 Active 119 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $57,900 Active 118 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $57,900 Active 117 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $57,900 Active 116 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $57,900 Active 115 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $57,900 Active 114 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $57,900 Active 113 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $57,900 Active 112 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $57,900 Active 111 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $57,900 Active 110 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $57,900 Active 109 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $57,900 Active 108 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    pricedays on market $57,900 Active 107 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $62,000 Active 106 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $62,000 Active 105 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $62,000 Active 104 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $62,000 Active 103 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − HOA: −$6,120
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $10,275
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,466
• After-tax cash flow: $7,709/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,850–$14,550 screening

This well-maintained 1-bedroom, 1-bath home features beautiful hardwood floors, central A/C, and a bright kitchen with granite countertops. The home is located in a desirable 55+ Co-Op community with a large open backyard area and peaceful views.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Granite countertops are durable and timeless, increasing the home's resale value ↑
• Resale Replace flooring — Hardwood floors are durable and timeless, increasing the home's resale value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Manchester Township Elementary School F NJ #642/1,303 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 Middle Manchester Township Middle School F NJ #226/431 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Manchester Township High School F NJ #290/399 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Manchester

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Glen West, NJ
• County: Ocean · 586,991 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 970Located in Manchester Township, Ocean County
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of 470.0Association amenities: community room, clubhouse, common area, landscaping, bocci; no poolAssociation fee includes trash, common area, lawn maintenance, sewer, snow removal, waterAssociation name: Cedar Glen West

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Cooperative ownershipQuad model
• Construction: Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Timberline shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: StoveRefrigeratorGas cooking
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heatingBaseboard heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Blinds/ShadesCeiling fan(s)Support rails
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $79,000 MOMLS