18 C Blue Jay St · Cedar Glen West, NJ 08759

$79,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 970 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 1969 Good condition $470/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Cedar Glen West, a desirable 55+ Co-Op community! This well-maintained 1-bedroom, 1-bath home features beautiful hardwood floors, central A/C, and a bright kitchen with granite countertops and a solar tube skylight that fills the space with natural light. The updated bath offers a convenient shower stall. Enjoy the large open backyard area with plenty of sunshine and peaceful views. Monthly HOA fee includes property taxes, water, sewer, trash collection, lawn maintenance, snow removal, roof repair/replacement, furnace repair/replacement, and hot water heater repair/replacement. Conveniently located near swimming lakes and just a short drive to Atlantic City. Community bus service

Key facts

• Shower stall
• Updated bath
• Central a/c

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• CENTRAL A/C
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SOLAR TUBE SKYLIGHT
• UPDATED BATH
• SHOWER STALL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 970; Located in Manchester Township, Ocean County
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of 470.0; Association amenities: community room, clubhouse, common area, landscaping, bocci; no pool; Association fee includes trash, common area, lawn maintenance, sewer, snow removal, water; Association name: Cedar Glen West

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Cooperative ownership; Quad model
• Construction: Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Timberline shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Refrigerator; Gas cooking
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Baseboard heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Blinds/Shades; Ceiling fan(s); Support rails
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $79,000 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $79k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $722 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 3.8% in Cedar Glen West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#366 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.17%
• DSCR: 2.74
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Heron St Unit D	0.11mi	1/1.0	980 (+1%)	1mo	$120,000	$122	92
17 Heron St Unit D	0.12mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	4mo	$55,000	$57	91
4 Flamingo Ter Unit A	0.12mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	5mo	$45,000	$46	91
5 Blue Jay St Unit A	0.15mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	3mo	$53,000	$55	90
16 B Dove St	0.21mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	1mo	$73,000	$75	90
18 Dove St Unit A	0.21mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	6mo	$69,900	$72	86
6 Dove St Unit D	0.28mi	1/1.0	970 (0%)	3mo	$80,000	$82	84
22 C Robin St	0.25mi	2/1.0 (+1)	970 (0%)	3mo	$158,000	$163	81
6 C Swallow St	0.29mi	2/1.0 (+1)	970 (0%)	2mo	$110,000	$113	79
9 D Dove St Unit D	0.29mi	2/1.0 (+1)	970 (0%)	6mo	$57,500	$59	77
2C Dove St	0.31mi	2/1.0 (+1)	970 (0%)	6mo	$78,000	$80	75
13B Pheasant St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+13%)	0mo	$95,500	$87	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $33,508
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.06×
• Total profit: $89,703
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$470
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $722

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,286

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $777	-5% $749	+0% $722	+5% $695	+10% $667
Rent	-10% $548	-5% $635	+0% $722	+5% $809	+10% $896
Rate	-1.0pp $762	-0.5pp $742	base $722	+0.5pp $702	+1.0pp $681

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	45d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $470 · $5,640/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashsnow removal

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-09
   listed $79,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − HOA: −$5,640
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $8,233
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,976
• After-tax cash flow: $6,689/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 1-bedroom, 1-bath home features beautiful hardwood floors, central A/C, and a bright kitchen with granite countertops. The home is located in a desirable 55+ Co-Op community with a large open backyard area and peaceful views.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale Replace countertops — Granite countertops are durable and timeless, increasing the home's resale value
• Resale Replace flooring — Hardwood floors are durable and timeless, increasing the home's resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Granite countertops are durable and timeless, increasing the home's resale value ↑
• Resale Replace flooring — Hardwood floors are durable and timeless, increasing the home's resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Cedar Glen West

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #12309

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Glen West, NJ
• City population: 34,290
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $79,000 MOMLS