428 Neilly Pl · Elmira, NY 14904

$79,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,194 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1940 0.40 ac lot $67/sqft · 33% below area Est $119k · 33% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Bungalow on Double Lot, perfect for kickball and football games, a pool, or even a garage! Welcome to this delightful bungalow situated on a spacious double lot, offering ample room for endless possibilities. This home features a convenient first-floor bedroom, a full bathroom, and laundry area, making it perfect for easy living and accessibility. The laundry area could be relocated to the kitchen allowing more space in the bathroom if necessary. As you enter, you'll be greeted by a large living room and dining room featuring knotty pine planks that provide a warm and cozy feeling to the space. The natural light that filters through the all new double hung vinyl windows that lean in for easy cleaning and are all screened enhances the welcoming atmosphere of the home. Upstairs, you'll find two additional spacious bedrooms, offering privacy and comfort. Step outside onto the newly renovated covered front porch including new floor, stairs, railings and all new beams, 5" rise on steps which makes it easier to maneuver up and down. The deck at the back of the home is ideal for summer barbecues and outdoor activities. Additional highlights include a sturdy metal roof for added durability and a shed with a 7' ceiling and concrete pad for extra storage needs. Furnace and Hot Water Heater 5-8 years old.

Key facts

• Laundry area
• Full bathroom
• Double lot

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM
• FULL BATHROOM
• LAUNDRY AREA
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• DINING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $668 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 10.1% in Elmira — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#832 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Elmira City School District (urban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #580 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.81%
• DSCR: 2.59
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $119,358
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -33.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
607 Partridge St	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,218 (+2%)	3mo	$126,000	$103	78
609 Decker Ave	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (-4%)	4mo	$45,000	$39	72
421 Partridge St	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,274 (+7%)	1mo	$47,000	$37	72
562 Baty St	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,296 (+8%)	5mo	$111,702	$86	69
405 Balsam St	0.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,081 (-10%)	5mo	$22,000	$20	65
628 Decker Ave	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,062 (-11%)	3mo	$125,000	$118	62
626 Decker Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+12%)	2mo	$142,000	$106	61
570 Cypress St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,307 (+10%)	1mo	$127,200	$97	60
777 Laurel St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-4%)	6mo	$145,000	$126	57
317 Morrowfield Ave	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,064 (-11%)	4mo	$35,500	$33	55
825 Broadway St	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,271 (+6%)	4mo	$65,000	$51	53
809 Chamberlain St	0.56mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,328 (+11%)	5mo	$138,192	$104	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $29,606
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.61×
• Total profit: $80,665
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14904

• Home prices YoY: -9.6%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,563 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,382/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $668

Break-even live

Break-even rent $718

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
419 Jefferson St Unit A Elmira, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	43d	1	0.20mi
550 Spruce St Unit 303 Elmira, NY	2.0	2.0	1350	$1,350	$1.00	43d	1	0.46mi
363 W Water St #2 Elmira, NY	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,250	$1.15	43d	1	0.80mi
235 Allen St Elmira, NY	2.0	1.0	780	$950	$1.22	43d	1	0.82mi
514 W 1st St Unit A Elmira, NY	4.0	1.0	1416	$1,275	$0.90	43d	1	0.94mi
454 W 2nd St Unit 1 Elmira, NY	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,000	$0.71	43d	1	1.01mi
106 W 2nd St Unit A Elmira, NY	3.0	1.0	1395	$1,400	$1.00	43d	1	1.20mi
410 E 2nd St Unit FS3W Elmira, NY	3.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	43d	1	1.35mi
1210 W Water St Elmira, NY	2.0	2.0	1340	$1,995	$1.49	43d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,900 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,900 Active 135 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 123 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 122 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    price $79,900 1332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1332 chars)

    Charming Bungalow on Double Lot, perfect for kickball and football games, a pool, or even a garage! Welcome to this delightful bungalow situated on a spacious double lot, offering ample room for endless possibilities. This home features a convenient first-floor bedroom, a full bathroom, and laundry area, making it perfect for easy living and accessibility. The laundry area could be relocated to the kitchen allowing more space in the bathroom if necessary. As you enter, you'll be greeted by a large living room and dining room featuring knotty pine planks that provide a warm and cozy feeling to the space. The natural light that filters through the all new double hung vinyl windows that lean in for easy cleaning and are all screened enhances the welcoming atmosphere of the home. Upstairs, you'll find two additional spacious bedrooms, offering privacy and comfort. Step outside onto the newly renovated covered front porch including new floor, stairs, railings and all new beams, 5" rise on steps which makes it easier to maneuver up and down. The deck at the back of the home is ideal for summer barbecues and outdoor activities. Additional highlights include a sturdy metal roof for added durability and a shed with a 7' ceiling and concrete pad for extra storage needs. Furnace and Hot Water Heater 5-8 years old.

18. 2026-04-09
    price $83,900 1332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1332 chars)

    Charming Bungalow on Double Lot, perfect for kickball and football games, a pool, or even a garage! Welcome to this delightful bungalow situated on a spacious double lot, offering ample room for endless possibilities. This home features a convenient first-floor bedroom, a full bathroom, and laundry area, making it perfect for easy living and accessibility. The laundry area could be relocated to the kitchen allowing more space in the bathroom if necessary. As you enter, you'll be greeted by a large living room and dining room featuring knotty pine planks that provide a warm and cozy feeling to the space. The natural light that filters through the all new double hung vinyl windows that lean in for easy cleaning and are all screened enhances the welcoming atmosphere of the home. Upstairs, you'll find two additional spacious bedrooms, offering privacy and comfort. Step outside onto the newly renovated covered front porch including new floor, stairs, railings and all new beams, 5" rise on steps which makes it easier to maneuver up and down. The deck at the back of the home is ideal for summer barbecues and outdoor activities. Additional highlights include a sturdy metal roof for added durability and a shed with a 7' ceiling and concrete pad for extra storage needs. Furnace and Hot Water Heater 5-8 years old.

19. 2026-01-28
    listed $86,900 Active 1332-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1332 chars)

    Charming Bungalow on Double Lot, perfect for kickball and football games, a pool, or even a garage! Welcome to this delightful bungalow situated on a spacious double lot, offering ample room for endless possibilities. This home features a convenient first-floor bedroom, a full bathroom, and laundry area, making it perfect for easy living and accessibility. The laundry area could be relocated to the kitchen allowing more space in the bathroom if necessary. As you enter, you'll be greeted by a large living room and dining room featuring knotty pine planks that provide a warm and cozy feeling to the space. The natural light that filters through the all new double hung vinyl windows that lean in for easy cleaning and are all screened enhances the welcoming atmosphere of the home. Upstairs, you'll find two additional spacious bedrooms, offering privacy and comfort. Step outside onto the newly renovated covered front porch including new floor, stairs, railings and all new beams, 5" rise on steps which makes it easier to maneuver up and down. The deck at the back of the home is ideal for summer barbecues and outdoor activities. Additional highlights include a sturdy metal roof for added durability and a shed with a 7' ceiling and concrete pad for extra storage needs. Furnace and Hot Water Heater 5-8 years old.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,382 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,382 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,760
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,382
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,501
• − Management: −$1,501
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $7,177
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,723
• After-tax cash flow: $6,289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elmira City School District
• NCES district ID: 3610560
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,180
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7688
• State rank: #580 of 590 in NY

Livability — Elmira

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #16139

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elmira, NY
• City population: 14,276
• Population (ZIP): 14,276

Population outlook (Chemung County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,931 people
• By 2030: 80,356 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 74,745 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 69,012 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 55,689 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 41,428 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chemung

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -1.2pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+13.4 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.33%
• Current HPI: 220.688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-8.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $79,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $83,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $86,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,382 · -18.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.