428 Neilly Pl · Elmira, NY 14904

$79,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,194 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 192 Days on market

Built 1940 Fair condition 0.40 ac lot $67/sqft · 36% below area Est $125k · 36% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Bungalow on Double Lot, perfect for kickball and football games, a pool, or even a garage! Welcome to this delightful bungalow situated on a spacious double lot, offering ample room for endless possibilities. This home features a convenient first-floor bedroom, a full bathroom, and laundry area, making it perfect for easy living and accessibility. The laundry area could be relocated to the kitchen allowing more space in the bathroom if necessary. As you enter, you'll be greeted by a large living room and dining room featuring knotty pine planks that provide a warm and cozy feeling to the space. The natural light that filters through the all new double hung vinyl windows that lean in for easy cleaning and are all screened enhances the welcoming atmosphere of the home. Upstairs, you'll find two additional spacious bedrooms, offering privacy and comfort. Step outside onto the newly renovated covered front porch including new floor, stairs, railings and all new beams, 5" rise on steps which makes it easier to maneuver up and down. The deck at the back of the home is ideal for summer barbecues and outdoor activities. Additional highlights include a sturdy metal roof for added durability and a shed with a 7' ceiling and concrete pad for extra storage needs. Furnace and Hot Water Heater 5-8 years old.

Key facts

• Laundry area
• Full bathroom
• Double lot

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM
• FULL BATHROOM
• LAUNDRY AREA
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• DINING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $80k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $668 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 9.8% in Elmira — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#832 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elmira City School District (urban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #580 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ernie Davis Academy (math 5% / reading 31%, grade F, #691 of 729 statewide, top 95%, 802 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.81%
• DSCR: 2.59
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,286
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -36.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
607 Partridge St	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,218 (+2%)	5mo	$126,000	$103	77
609 Decker Ave	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (-4%)	5mo	$45,000	$39	71
421 Partridge St	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,274 (+7%)	3mo	$47,000	$37	70
615 Chester St	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,027 (-14%)	1mo	$145,000	$141	70
562 Baty St	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,296 (+8%)	6mo	$111,702	$86	68
628 Decker Ave	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,062 (-11%)	4mo	$125,000	$118	61
626 Decker Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+12%)	4mo	$142,000	$106	60
570 Cypress St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,307 (+10%)	2mo	$127,200	$97	59
317 Morrowfield Ave	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,064 (-11%)	6mo	$35,500	$33	54
779 Dubois St	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,350 (+13%)	1mo	$57,000	$42	53
825 Broadway St	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,271 (+6%)	6mo	$65,000	$51	51
778 Southport St	0.64mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,367 (+14%)	2mo	$165,000	$121	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $29,606
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.61×
• Total profit: $80,665
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 21 active · 26 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.6 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $95,000 ($86/sqft)
• Median days on market: 84 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +21.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 14904

• Home prices YoY: -9.6%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,563 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,382/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $668

Break-even live

Break-even rent $718

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $713	-5% $690	+0% $668	+5% $645	+10% $622
Rent	-10% $544	-5% $606	+0% $668	+5% $729	+10% $791
Rate	-1.0pp $708	-0.5pp $688	base $668	+0.5pp $647	+1.0pp $626

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
419 Jefferson St Unit A Elmira, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	93d	1	0.20mi
550 Spruce St Unit 303 Elmira, NY	2.0	2.0	1350	$1,350	$1.00	93d	1	0.46mi
363 W Water St #2 Elmira, NY	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,250	$1.15	93d	1	0.80mi
235 Allen St Elmira, NY	2.0	1.0	780	$950	$1.22	93d	1	0.82mi
514 W 1st St Unit A Elmira, NY	4.0	1.0	1416	$1,275	$0.90	93d	1	0.94mi
454 W 2nd St Unit 1 Elmira, NY	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,000	$0.71	93d	1	1.01mi
106 W 2nd St Unit A Elmira, NY	3.0	1.0	1395	$1,400	$1.00	93d	1	1.20mi
410 E 2nd St Unit FS3W Elmira, NY	3.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	93d	1	1.35mi
1210 W Water St Elmira, NY	2.0	2.0	1340	$1,995	$1.49	93d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 192 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   statusdays on market $79,900 Active 191 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $79,900 Active Under Contract 190 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $79,900 Active Under Contract 189 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $79,900 Active Under Contract 188 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $79,900 Active Under Contract 187 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $79,900 Active Under Contract 184 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $79,900 Active Under Contract 183 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $79,900 Active Under Contract 182 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $79,900 Active Under Contract 180 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $79,900 Active Under Contract 178 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $79,900 Active Under Contract 176 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $79,900 Active Under Contract 175 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    statusdays on market $79,900 Active Under Contract 174 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $79,900 Active 171 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $79,900 Active 169 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $79,900 Active 168 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $79,900 Active 167 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $79,900 Active 166 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $79,900 Active 165 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $79,900 Active 164 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $79,900 Active 163 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $79,900 Active 162 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 161 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 160 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $79,900 Active 159 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 158 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 157 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 156 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 155 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 154 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 153 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $79,900 Active 152 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $79,900 Active 151 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $79,900 Active 150 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $79,900 Active 148 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $79,900 Active 145 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $79,900 Active 144 DOM
39. 2026-06-19
    days on market $79,900 Active 142 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $79,900 Active 141 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $79,900 Active 140 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $79,900 Active 139 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $79,900 Active 138 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $79,900 Active 136 DOM
45. 2026-06-12
    days on market $79,900 Active 135 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $79,900 Active 132 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 131 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 130 DOM
49. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 127 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 126 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,382 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,382 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,760
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,382
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,501
• − Management: −$1,501
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $7,177
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,723
• After-tax cash flow: $6,289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $29,850–$53,730 screening

This bungalow requires significant exterior and interior repairs, including a new roof and fresh paint, to improve its condition and value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof metal · good

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The independent satellite image suggests a potential need for roof repair.
• Major exterior siding — The listing photos show peeling paint and discoloration on the siding.
• Major interior walls — The listing photos show some discoloration on the interior walls.
• Major HVAC condensers — The independent satellite image shows HVAC condensers, which may need inspection and potential repair or replacement.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can improve the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both repair the roof — A new roof can significantly increase the home's value and reduce maintenance costs. ↑
• Both replace HVAC condensers — A functional HVAC system is crucial for comfort and energy efficiency, impacting both resale and rental value positively. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 14/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Parley Coburn School F NY #2,041/2,108 Nat'l #36,758/41,679 High Broadway Academy

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elmira City School District
• NCES district ID: 3610560
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,180
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7688
• State rank: #580 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Elmira

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #16139

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elmira, NY
• County: Chemung · 82,931 people
• City population: 14,276
• Metro: Elmira, NY
• Population (ZIP): 14,276
• Household income: $54,563
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Chemung County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,931 people
• By 2030: 80,356 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 74,745 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 69,012 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 55,689 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 41,428 · -50.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Chemung

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -1.2pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+13.4 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.33%
• Current HPI: 220.688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-8.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $79,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $83,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $86,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,382 · -18.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.