620 N 41st Ave · Show Low, AZ 85901

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1996 8,276 sqft lot $145/sqft · at area comps Est $279k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1996

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $407 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 892 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $285k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $267,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.12%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,483
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: 1.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
620 N 41st Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,960 (0%)	0mo	$270,000	$138	100
4261 W Mogollon Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,708 (-13%)	9mo	$155,000	$91	58
967 N 43Rd Cul	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-14%)	22mo	$190,000	$113	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-20,390
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $15,155
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 892
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,356/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,185

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $568	-5% $487	+0% $407	+5% $326	+10% $245
Rent	-10% $193	-5% $300	+0% $407	+5% $513	+10% $620
Rate	-1.0pp $550	-0.5pp $479	base $407	+0.5pp $333	+1.0pp $258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2890 W Villa Loop Unit 1 Show Low, AZ	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,700	$1.63	44d	1	0.75mi
2850 W Villa Loop Unit 1 Show Low, AZ	3.0	2.0	1625	$2,700	$1.66	14d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-09
   price $285,000
3. 2026-02-25
   listed $309,000 Active
4. 2026-02-24
   price $309,000
5. 2025-10-12
   price $319,000
6. 2025-08-27
   price $349,000
7. 2013-07-30
   soldstatus $109,900
8. 2006-04-06
   soldstatus $172,000
9. 2005-10-18
   soldstatus $135,000
10. 1999-06-03
    soldstatus $110,000
11. 1995-10-10
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,356 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,881 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: +$525/yr (+$44/mo · 38.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$1,356
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,592
• − Management: −$2,592
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable income: $180
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$43
• After-tax cash flow: $4,837/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Show Low Unified District (4393)
• NCES district ID: 0407700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,240
• Composite: 29.9/100
• National rank: #6387
• State rank: #89 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Show Low

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #13573

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Show Low, AZ
• City population: 18,821
• Population (ZIP): 18,821

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1576.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — WMMLS
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $285,000 WMMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $309,000 WMMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $309,000 WMMLS
• 2025-10-12 Price Changed $319,000 WMMLS
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $349,000 WMMLS
• 2013-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $109,900 Public Records
• 2006-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $172,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 1999-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 1995-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,356 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.