203 E Deer St · Mandan, ND 58554

$35,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Manufactured · 44 Days on market

Built 1983 1,248 sqft lot $350/mo HOA · 28% of rent ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• En suite bathroom
• Water heater
• Paver patio

Tags

• CENTRAL AIR
• WATER HEATER
• EN SUITE BATHROOM
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• PAVER PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $382 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.4% vs local median 2.7% in Mandan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#76 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mandan 1 (suburban): math 35% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #32 of 53 in ND (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mandan Middle School (math 36% / reading 40%, grade F, #21 of 35 statewide, top 59%, 928 students, 30% FRL); Mandan High School (math 18% / reading 42%, grade F, #90 of 144 statewide, top 66%, 1,138 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.0%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 94 units permitted in Morton County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Morton County population projected at +48% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.

Recommended offer $33,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.77%
• DSCR: 3.08
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $71,250
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
203 E Deer St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,250 (0%)	1mo	$35,000	$28	99
213 S Prairie Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-3%)	7mo	$69,000	$57	87
229 Prairie Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-3%)	10mo	$29,900	$25	84
403 E Prairie Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-3%)	3mo	$65,000	$53	83
185 South Prairie Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+2%)	9mo	$70,000	$55	80
1217 9th Ave SE	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+2%)	2mo	$217,500	$170	72
102 Deer St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-9%)	8mo	$79,000	$69	71
104 Deer St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-9%)	9mo	$79,000	$69	71
703 6th Ave SE Unit C16	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,140 (-9%)	7mo	$79,999	$70	65
1208 7th Ave SE	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,320 (+6%)	7mo	$145,000	$110	61
105 Gateway Trl	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+2%)	3mo	$30,000	$23	60
405 Prairie Ln	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,076 (-14%)	8mo	$26,000	$24	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $25,401
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.58×
• Total profit: $84,039
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58554

• Rents YoY: 14.0%
• Active inventory: 304
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,233 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$350
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $749

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 1st St NW Mandan, ND	1.0–2.0	1.0	887	$1,150	$1.30	21d	11	0.70mi
611 9th Ave SW Mandan, ND	2.0	1.0	942	$1,125	$1.19	21d	1	0.79mi
406 4th St NW Mandan, ND	3.0	1.5	1208	$1,200	$0.99	21d	1	0.94mi
1504 Shannon Dr NE Mandan, ND	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	21d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $350 · $4,200/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-07
   status Active
3. 2026-01-21
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-20
   listed $35,000 Active
5. 2025-10-13
   price $35,000
6. 2025-09-12
   price $45,000
7. 2025-08-01
   price $52,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,792
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,183
• − Management: −$1,183
• − HOA: −$4,200
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $4,546
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,091
• After-tax cash flow: $3,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mandan 1
• NCES district ID: 3811820
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,131
• Composite: 32.55/100
• National rank: #5692
• State rank: #32 of 53 in ND

Livability — Mandan

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #7567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mandan, ND
• County: Morton County · 29,479 people
• City population: 29,479
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 29,479
• Household income: $80,120
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 915.0

Population outlook (Morton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,682 people
• By 2030: 39,967 · +9.0%
• By 2040: 46,921 · +27.9%
• By 2050: 54,157 · +47.6%
• By 2075: 73,661 · +100.8%
• By 2100: 89,885 · +145.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 4% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Scotch-Irish 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Morton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.8) · D 22.2% · R 75.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.7pp toward R · 2008: -21.0pp · 2024: -53.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.8 2020: R+50.4 2016: R+53.0 2012: R+31.1 2008: R+21.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.81%
• Current HPI: 137.8984
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.00%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

-32.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — GNMLS
• 2026-02-07 Relisted — GNMLS
• 2026-01-21 Pending — GNMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $35,000 GNMLS
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $35,000 GNMLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $45,000 GNMLS
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $52,000 GNMLS