🏷️ Likely Rental
3426 Round Rd · Baltimore, MD
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $755 – $1,403
Heat risk 8/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 102°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 27.0%
Air-quality risk 4/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 5 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 7 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +25.6/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +8.5/10.0
- 1% rule +7.2/10.0
- Livability +3.8/5.0
- Rent growth +3.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +1.0/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$150,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Calling all savvy investors! Don't miss this rare chance to snag a solid home in Baltimore at an incredible value. Just minutes from I95, this brick-front townhome is a prime addition to any rental portfolio. Built in 1995, this 1,620 Sq Ft home resides in a well established neighborhood and features 3 spacious bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms—a rare find at this price point that guarantees high tenant demand. The heavy lifting is already done. Enjoy peace of mind with a newer HVAC, and a recently replaced water heater. While this home requires a clean-out and cosmetic updates, its "good bones" and the partially finished basement with a full bath provides a solid foundation f
Key facts
- Full bath
- Newer hvac
- Brick front townhome
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $150k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
- Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
- Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Zoned schools: Arundel Elementary (427 students, 81% FRL); Baltimore City College (math 50% / reading 79%, grade B-, #55 of 222 statewide, top 26%, 1,497 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 79% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
- Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 12% district-wide (+53 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Baltimore City Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
- 6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $124k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.22% ✓
- Cap rate
- 9.13%
- Cash-on-cash
- 10.12%
- DSCR
- 1.45
- GRM
- 6.8
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $197,505
- Comps found
- 9
Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3426 Round Rd | 0.00mi | 3/3.0 | 1,485 (0%) | 0mo | $145,000 | $98 | 98 |
| 248 W Edgevale Rd | 0.64mi | 3/2.5 | 1,600 (+8%) | 11mo | $274,000 | $171 | 44 |
| 614 Cheraton Rd | 0.60mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,536 (+3%) | 15mo | $205,000 | $133 | 43 |
| 625 Cheraton Rd | 0.56mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,536 (+3%) | 18mo | $202,000 | $132 | 42 |
| 2821 Round Rd | 0.31mi | 2/2.5 (-1) | 1,324 (-11%) | 24mo | $175,000 | $132 | 39 |
| 313 Cherry Hill Rd | 0.59mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 1,344 (-10%) | 9mo | $135,000 | $100 | 34 |
| 227 W Meadow Rd | 0.67mi | 3/1.5 | 1,635 (+10%) | 13mo | $229,000 | $140 | 33 |
| 3049 Ascension St | 0.50mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,262 (-15%) | 15mo | $180,000 | $143 | 28 |
| 202 W Edgevale Rd | 0.72mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,320 (-11%) | 24mo | $245,000 | $186 | 17 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 4.08% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 0.2%
- Equity multiple
- 1.01×
- Total profit
- $329
- Equity at exit
- $22,365
- IRR
- 11.0%
- Equity multiple
- 1.91×
- Total profit
- $38,021
- Equity at exit
- $12,969
Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (CITY)
- 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
- State Maryland
- 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City Baltimore
- 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58
ZIP-level market 21225
- Home prices YoY
- -31.9%
- Rents YoY
- 4.1%
- Active inventory
- 165
- Price-to-rent
- 6.8×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,830 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$787
- Tax from tax record
- −$242 /mo · $2,909/yr
- Insurance
- −$62
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$384
- Net cashflow
- $354
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $37,500
- Closing costs
- $4,500
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 25 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3010 Alabama Ave Halethorpe, MD | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $2,200 | $2.44 | 17d | 1 | 0.58mi |
| 2454 Terra Firma Rd Brooklyn, MD | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1024 | $1,650 | $1.61 | 14d | 1 | 0.60mi |
| 607 Cheraton Rd Brooklyn, MD | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1200 | $1,750 | $1.46 | 14d | 1 | 0.60mi |
| 130 Reedbird Ave Brooklyn, MD | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1152 | $1,700 | $1.48 | 23d | 1 | 0.63mi |
| 217 W Edgevale Rd Brooklyn, MD | 3.0 | 1.5 | 992 | $1,800 | $1.81 | 23d | 1 | 0.66mi |
| 202 W Edgevale Rd Unit A Baltimore, MD | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1824 | $1,650 | $0.90 | 4d | 1 | 0.69mi |
| 49 Talbott St Brooklyn, MD | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1300 | $1,300 | $1.00 | 23d | 1 | 0.73mi |
| 303 Arden Rd W Brooklyn, MD | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1388 | $2,500 | $1.80 | 17d | 1 | 0.77mi |
| 732 Old Riverside Rd Brooklyn, MD | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1570 | $1,900 | $1.21 | 43d | 1 | 0.79mi |
| 3513 Horton Ave Brooklyn, MD | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1020 | $1,600 | $1.57 | 17d | 1 | 1.04mi |
| 3544 4th St Brooklyn, MD | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1800 | $1,940 | $1.08 | 23d | 1 | 1.06mi |
| 3569 4th St Brooklyn, MD | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1256 | $1,200 | $0.96 | 17d | 1 | 1.08mi |
| 4400 4th St Unit BASEMENT Baltimore, MD | 2.0 | 1.0 | 925 | $1,350 | $1.46 | 43d | 1 | 1.22mi |
| 507 Washburn Ave Brooklyn, MD | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1024 | $2,500 | $2.44 | 23d | 1 | 1.22mi |
| 507 Washburn Ave Brooklyn, MD | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1024 | $2,500 | $2.44 | 20d | 1 | 1.22mi |
| 507 Washburn Ave Brooklyn, MD | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1024 | $2,500 | $2.44 | 4d | 1 | 1.22mi |
| 3528 6th St Brooklyn, MD | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1060 | $1,500 | $1.42 | 17d | 1 | 1.24mi |
| 3822 6th St Brooklyn, MD | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1580 | $1,850 | $1.17 | 23d | 1 | 1.25mi |
| 2200 W Patapsco Ave Baltimore, MD | 3.0 | 1.0 | 890 | $1,569 | $1.76 | 43d | 1 | 1.34mi |
| 4206 Audrey Ave Brooklyn, MD | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1104 | $1,950 | $1.77 | 23d | 1 | 1.36mi |
| 4206 Audrey Ave Brooklyn, MD | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1104 | $1,275 | $1.15 | 43d | 1 | 1.36mi |
| 4201 Audrey Ave Unit 1 Brooklyn, MD | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1400 | $1,350 | $0.96 | 23d | 1 | 1.38mi |
| 3840 8th St Brooklyn, MD | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1088 | $1,606 | $1.48 | 4d | 1 | 1.41mi |
| 117 E Cromwell St Unit A Baltimore, MD | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1603 | $3,750 | $2.34 | 43d | 1 | 1.41mi |
| 2500 Insulator Dr Baltimore, MD | 3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 988 | $4,786 | $4.84 | 2d | 152 | 1.43mi |
Listing history 23 events
-
2026-04-20status Pending
-
2026-04-16$150,000 Active
-
2026-03-12historical
-
2026-02-25$169,000 Active
-
2019-10-01soldstatus $123,560
-
2019-08-26soldstatus $123,560 Closed
-
2019-07-17status Pending
-
2019-02-28status Active
-
2019-02-21historical Active Under Contract
-
2019-02-16$119,900 Active
-
2016-07-01historical Expired
-
2016-07-01historical
-
2016-06-18price
-
2016-06-14price
-
2016-06-04price
-
2016-03-18price
-
2016-02-25price
-
2016-01-26price
-
2016-01-06price
-
2015-12-14price
-
2015-10-25Active
-
2015-10-25$89,900
-
1995-04-04soldstatus $54,550
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $2,909 · $242/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $2,909 · $242/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $21,961
- − Mortgage interest
- −$8,402
- − Property taxes
- −$2,909
- − Insurance
- −$750
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,757
- − Management
- −$1,757
- − Depreciation
- −$4,364
- Taxable income
- $2,023
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$485
- After-tax cash flow
- $3,766/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Baltimore City Public Schools
- NCES district ID
- 2400090
- Math proficiency
- 7% ▼ -9.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 16% ▼ -5.00%
- Median HH income
- $42,108
- Composite
- 10.08/100
- National rank
- #9805
- State rank
- #24 of 24 in MD
Livability — Baltimore
- Score
- 76/100
- State rank
- #90
- US rank
- #3396
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Baltimore, MD
- County
- Anne Arundel County · 535,653 people
- City population
- 588,727
- Metro
- Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
- Population (ZIP)
- 34,062
- Household income
- $54,020
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1440.0
Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 624,249 people
- By 2030
- 621,541 · -0.4%
- By 2040
- 609,756 · -2.3%
- By 2050
- 597,249 · -4.3%
- By 2075
- 552,236 · -11.5%
- By 2100
- 513,934 · -17.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
- Race & ethnicity
- Black 42% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 8% Native American 3% Asian 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 12% · Canada, China
- Languages at home
- 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore
- 2024 margin
- Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -119.44%
- Current HPI
- 254.5089
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 4.08%
- Metro
- Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.97%
- F500 in state
- 12
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Aerospace / Defense | 1 | $71B |
|
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| Utilities | 1 | $25B |
|
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| Hotels | 1 | $24B |
|
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| Consumer Goods | 1 | $7B |
|
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| Real Estate | 1 | $6B |
|
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| Chemicals | 1 | $2B |
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Price history
+175.0% since first listed23 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-20 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
- 2026-04-16 Listed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
- 2026-03-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
- 2026-02-25 Listed $169,000 BRIGHT MLS
- 2019-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $123,560 Public Records
- 2019-08-26 Sold (MLS) $123,560 BRIGHT MLS
- 2019-07-17 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
- 2019-02-28 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
- 2019-02-21 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
- 2019-02-16 Listed $119,900 BRIGHT MLS
- 2016-07-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
- 2016-07-01 Delisted — MRIS
- 2016-06-18 Price Changed — MRIS
- 2016-06-14 Price Changed — MRIS
- 2016-06-04 Price Changed — MRIS
- 2016-03-18 Price Changed — MRIS
- 2016-02-25 Price Changed — MRIS
- 2016-01-26 Price Changed — MRIS
- 2016-01-06 Price Changed — MRIS
- 2015-12-14 Price Changed — MRIS
- 2015-10-25 Listed — MRIS
- 2015-10-25 Listed $89,900 BRIGHT MLS
- 1995-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $54,550 Public Records
Property tax history
+1.2%/yrLatest (2025): $2,909 · -4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…