311 S Jernigan St · Bells, TX 75414

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1930 0.27 ac lot $80/sqft · 49% below area Est $146k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer upper but great potential. Three bedroom, 1 full bath home on a large lot with covered front and side porch. Nice sized living room, kitchen, dining area. Renovations began and are ready to finish up by next buyer! No appliances present in kitchen.

Key facts

• Large lot
• 0.27 acre lot
• Built 1930

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• COVERED FRONT AND SIDE PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $222 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($975 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 2.3% in Bells — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#769 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Bells ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #81 of 826 in TX (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.68%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $146,010
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -48.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $2,009
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $20,077
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75414

• Home prices YoY: -9.3%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $975 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,486/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $694

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
244 W McFarland St Bells, TX	3.0	1.0	750	$975	$1.30	17d	1	0.55mi
246 W McFarland St Bells, TX	3.0	1.0	750	$975	$1.30	20d	1	0.56mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 93 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 92 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 91 DOM
18. 2026-02-26
    listed $75,000 Active 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Fixer upper but great potential. Three bedroom, 1 full bath home on a large lot with covered front and side porch. Nice sized living room, kitchen, dining area. Renovations began and are ready to finish up by next buyer! No appliances present in kitchen.

19. 2014-10-01
    soldstatus
20. 2014-09-30
    soldstatus Sold 84-char remark

    Show marketing remark (84 chars)

    Great for first time homebuyers or for a retired couple who want Small Town Living!!

21. 2014-08-06
    status Pending 84-char remark

    Show marketing remark (84 chars)

    Great for first time homebuyers or for a retired couple who want Small Town Living!!

22. 2014-07-24
    listed $29,000 Active 84-char remark

    Show marketing remark (84 chars)

    Great for first time homebuyers or for a retired couple who want Small Town Living!!

23. 2014-07-21
    historical
24. 2014-03-18
    listed $29,000 Active
25. 2007-06-11
    soldstatus
26. 2002-07-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,486 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,486 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,486
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$936
• − Management: −$936
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $1,584
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$380
• After-tax cash flow: $2,282/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bells ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809780
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $53,905
• Composite: 49.84/100
• National rank: #1949
• State rank: #81 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bells

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #769
• US rank: #14037

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bells, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,417

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 2% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.31%
• Current HPI: 257.42
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+158.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Listed $75,000 NTREIS
• 2014-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-09-30 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2014-08-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2014-07-24 Listed $29,000 NTREIS
• 2014-07-21 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2014-03-18 Listed $29,000 NTREIS
• 2007-06-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,486 · -4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.