27262 Grey Fox Run · Tomball, TX 77354

$260,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,749 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2022 5,140 sqft lot $149/sqft · at area comps Est $273k · at est. $64/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1 Story, 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath, 4 Sides Brick Exterior, Open Concept Kitchen/Dining Combo, Dual Vanities in Primary Bath, Dual Closets in Primary Bedroom, Luxury Vinyl Plank Floors in Pocket Office, Dining Room, Kitchen, Family Room and all Wet Areas, Large Kitchen Island, Granite Kitchen Countertops, Herringbone Kitchen Backsplash, Undermount Stainless Steel Sink with Pull Out Faucet, Upgraded Stainless Steel Appliances with Microwave, 42" Upper Kitchen Cabinets, Upgraded Lighting & Trim Packages, Fireplace with Cast Stone Surround, Covered Rear Patio, Tech Shield Radiant Barrier, Environments for Living Home, plus more…AVAILABLE DECEMBER.

Key facts

• 5,140 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Mill Creek Residential Community; Annual association fee of $769; Community features include curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces west; Built in 2022; One-story entry (single level); Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Composition roof; Built in 2022; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Fence; Subdivision setting; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Microwave; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — approx. 15 x 14; Bedroom (First floor) — approx. 14 x 10; Bedroom (First floor) — approx. 11 x 11
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double vanity in at least one bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen and family room combo; Kitchen and dining combo; Walk-in pantry; Granite counters; Double vanity; Vanity; Tub with shower; Window treatments; Low emissivity windows; Window coverings; Insulated doors; Gas fireplace with gas log (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Dryer (present)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-557 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (37.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (37.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.7% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedric C Smith (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 724 students, 55% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,615 (37.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.18%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,929
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: -4.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10033 Swift Fox Ct	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,693 (-3%)	3mo	$274,900	$162	87
27219 Mockingbird Terrace Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,640 (-6%)	6mo	$279,725	$171	75
27278 Axis Deer Trl	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,866 (+7%)	4mo	$299,635	$161	75
10260 Badger Run Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,689 (-3%)	4mo	$281,125	$166	72
10010 Cottontail Ct	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,538 (-12%)	5mo	$239,990	$156	71
10288 Badger Run Ln	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,597 (-9%)	5mo	$256,724	$161	64
27207 Mockingbird Terrace Ln	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,988 (+14%)	3mo	$317,254	$160	64
25062 Lindsey Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,717 (-2%)	2mo	$300,400	$175	64
10216 Longhorn Ridge Ct	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,988 (+14%)	4mo	$320,142	$161	64
27286 Axis Deer Trl	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,988 (+14%)	6mo	$300,142	$151	62
27146 Grey Fox Run	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,948 (+11%)	4mo	$299,000	$153	60
9315 Central Pl	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,602 (-8%)	5mo	$265,000	$165	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $101,012
• Equity at exit: $234,229

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.34×
• Total profit: $316,112
• Equity at exit: $505,123

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,050 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$641 /mo · $7,687/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$64
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-557

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,755

Max offer price $161,615

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-410	-5% $-483	+0% $-557	+5% $-631	+10% $-704
Rent	-10% $-719	-5% $-638	+0% $-557	+5% $-476	+10% $-395
Rate	-1.0pp $-426	-0.5pp $-491	base $-557	+0.5pp $-624	+1.0pp $-693

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9733 Grosbeak Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,798	$1.38	45d	1	0.47mi
9829 Glen Brook Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1637	$1,999	$1.22	4d	1	0.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $64 · $768/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $260,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $260,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $260,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $260,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $260,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $260,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $275,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $275,000 Active 1023-char remark
16. 2026-05-08
    historical $275,000 1023-char remark
17. 2025-08-20
    soldstatus
18. 2024-12-02
    historical
19. 2024-11-06
    price $287,000
20. 2024-10-07
    listed $289,000 Active
21. 2023-11-04
    historical $2,200
22. 2023-11-02
    listed $2,200
23. 2023-02-27
    soldstatus
24. 2023-02-24
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (662 chars)

    1 Story, 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath, 4 Sides Brick Exterior, Open Concept Kitchen/Dining Combo, Dual Vanities in Primary Bath, Dual Closets in Primary Bedroom, Luxury Vinyl Plank Floors in Pocket Office, Dining Room, Kitchen, Family Room and all Wet Areas, Large Kitchen Island, Granite Kitchen Countertops, Herringbone Kitchen Backsplash, Undermount Stainless Steel Sink with Pull Out Faucet, Upgraded Stainless Steel Appliances with Microwave, 42" Upper Kitchen Cabinets, Upgraded Lighting & Trim Packages, Fireplace with Cast Stone Surround, Covered Rear Patio, Tech Shield Radiant Barrier, Environments for Living Home, plus more…AVAILABLE DECEMBER.

25. 2022-12-12
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (662 chars)

    1 Story, 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath, 4 Sides Brick Exterior, Open Concept Kitchen/Dining Combo, Dual Vanities in Primary Bath, Dual Closets in Primary Bedroom, Luxury Vinyl Plank Floors in Pocket Office, Dining Room, Kitchen, Family Room and all Wet Areas, Large Kitchen Island, Granite Kitchen Countertops, Herringbone Kitchen Backsplash, Undermount Stainless Steel Sink with Pull Out Faucet, Upgraded Stainless Steel Appliances with Microwave, 42" Upper Kitchen Cabinets, Upgraded Lighting & Trim Packages, Fireplace with Cast Stone Surround, Covered Rear Patio, Tech Shield Radiant Barrier, Environments for Living Home, plus more…AVAILABLE DECEMBER.

26. 2022-09-09
    price $299,990

    Show marketing remark (662 chars)

    1 Story, 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath, 4 Sides Brick Exterior, Open Concept Kitchen/Dining Combo, Dual Vanities in Primary Bath, Dual Closets in Primary Bedroom, Luxury Vinyl Plank Floors in Pocket Office, Dining Room, Kitchen, Family Room and all Wet Areas, Large Kitchen Island, Granite Kitchen Countertops, Herringbone Kitchen Backsplash, Undermount Stainless Steel Sink with Pull Out Faucet, Upgraded Stainless Steel Appliances with Microwave, 42" Upper Kitchen Cabinets, Upgraded Lighting & Trim Packages, Fireplace with Cast Stone Surround, Covered Rear Patio, Tech Shield Radiant Barrier, Environments for Living Home, plus more…AVAILABLE DECEMBER.

27. 2022-08-02
    listed $305,990 Active

    Show marketing remark (662 chars)

    1 Story, 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath, 4 Sides Brick Exterior, Open Concept Kitchen/Dining Combo, Dual Vanities in Primary Bath, Dual Closets in Primary Bedroom, Luxury Vinyl Plank Floors in Pocket Office, Dining Room, Kitchen, Family Room and all Wet Areas, Large Kitchen Island, Granite Kitchen Countertops, Herringbone Kitchen Backsplash, Undermount Stainless Steel Sink with Pull Out Faucet, Upgraded Stainless Steel Appliances with Microwave, 42" Upper Kitchen Cabinets, Upgraded Lighting & Trim Packages, Fireplace with Cast Stone Surround, Covered Rear Patio, Tech Shield Radiant Barrier, Environments for Living Home, plus more…AVAILABLE DECEMBER.

28. 2022-06-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,687 · $641/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,687 · $641/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,599
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$7,687
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,968
• − Management: −$1,968
• − HOA: −$768
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$11,219
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,693
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,991/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tomball

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 113,991
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Coming Soon $275,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-12-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-11-06 Price Changed $287,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-07 Listed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2023-11-04 Rental Removed $2,200 HARMLS
• 2023-11-02 Listed for Rent $2,200 HARMLS
• 2023-02-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-02-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-12-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-09-09 Price Changed $299,990 HARMLS
• 2022-08-02 Listed $305,990 HARMLS
• 2022-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+189.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,687 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.