259 Cobblestone Cir · Red Oak, TX 75154

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,439 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2002 0.29 ac lot $208/sqft · 8% below area Est $324k · 8% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming single-story home located in the highly sought-after Red Oak ISD! This inviting property features a spacious combined living and dining area, perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Custom tile throughout home. The cozy living room is highlighted by a fireplace, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The eat-in kitchen offers a comfortable space for casual meals and gatherings. The primary bedroom includes a private full bathroom, providing a relaxing retreat at the end of the day. Step outside to enjoy a large, fenced backyard—ideal for pets, play, or outdoor entertaining—complete with additional storage for your convenience. This home combines comfort, functionality, and great outdoor space—don’t miss the opportunity to make it yours!Discounted rate options and no lender fee future refinancing may be available for qualified buyers of this home.

Key facts

• Eat-in kitchen
• Single-story home
• Additional storage

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE FULL BATHROOM
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-193 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.9% in Red Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#435 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Red Oak ISD (suburban): math 40% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #384 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 565 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,583 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.77%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,078
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -7.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
225 Cobblestone Cir	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+9%)	0mo	$330,000	$211	79
120 Cole Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,503 (+4%)	5mo	$322,000	$214	59
131 Stagecoach Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+2%)	14mo	$350,000	$240	59
108 Deborde Cir	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+2%)	22mo	$315,000	$214	47
110 Troy Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,607 (+12%)	21mo	$294,900	$184	46
118 Prairie View Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,521 (+6%)	14mo	$409,900	$269	45
114 Anderson Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,301 (-10%)	12mo	$287,000	$221	43
121 Prairie View Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,256 (-13%)	14mo	$325,000	$259	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-60,690
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-68,474
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75154

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 565
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,446 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$433 /mo · $5,191/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,690

Max offer price $264,919

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
628 Cherry Hill Rd Red Oak, TX	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,550	$1.40	1d	1	0.36mi
240 Washington St Unit 201 Red Oak, TX	2.0	2.0	1370	$4,705	$3.43	43d	1	0.43mi
103 Hollow Tree Dr Red Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1806	$2,249	$1.25	24d	1	1.12mi
306 Quail Run Rd Red Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1637	$1,995	$1.22	24d	1	1.19mi
214 Bob White Dr Red Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$2,299	$1.50	22d	1	1.33mi
450 Lennox Rd Red Oak, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1679	$2,199	$1.31	1d	108	1.36mi
112 Clover Leaf Ln Red Oak, TX	3.0	2.0	1646	$2,189	$1.33	22d	1	1.39mi
213 Morningstar Ln Red Oak, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,385	$1.32	24d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $299,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-05-18
    price $299,000 899-char remark

    Show marketing remark (899 chars)

    Charming single-story home located in the highly sought-after Red Oak ISD! This inviting property features a spacious combined living and dining area, perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Custom tile throughout home. The cozy living room is highlighted by a fireplace, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The eat-in kitchen offers a comfortable space for casual meals and gatherings. The primary bedroom includes a private full bathroom, providing a relaxing retreat at the end of the day. Step outside to enjoy a large, fenced backyard—ideal for pets, play, or outdoor entertaining—complete with additional storage for your convenience. This home combines comfort, functionality, and great outdoor space—don’t miss the opportunity to make it yours!Discounted rate options and no lender fee future refinancing may be available for qualified buyers of this home.

14. 2026-05-12
    price $303,000 899-char remark

    Show marketing remark (899 chars)

    Charming single-story home located in the highly sought-after Red Oak ISD! This inviting property features a spacious combined living and dining area, perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Custom tile throughout home. The cozy living room is highlighted by a fireplace, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The eat-in kitchen offers a comfortable space for casual meals and gatherings. The primary bedroom includes a private full bathroom, providing a relaxing retreat at the end of the day. Step outside to enjoy a large, fenced backyard—ideal for pets, play, or outdoor entertaining—complete with additional storage for your convenience. This home combines comfort, functionality, and great outdoor space—don’t miss the opportunity to make it yours!Discounted rate options and no lender fee future refinancing may be available for qualified buyers of this home.

15. 2026-04-22
    listed $315,000 Active 899-char remark

    Show marketing remark (899 chars)

    Charming single-story home located in the highly sought-after Red Oak ISD! This inviting property features a spacious combined living and dining area, perfect for entertaining or everyday living. Custom tile throughout home. The cozy living room is highlighted by a fireplace, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The eat-in kitchen offers a comfortable space for casual meals and gatherings. The primary bedroom includes a private full bathroom, providing a relaxing retreat at the end of the day. Step outside to enjoy a large, fenced backyard—ideal for pets, play, or outdoor entertaining—complete with additional storage for your convenience. This home combines comfort, functionality, and great outdoor space—don’t miss the opportunity to make it yours!Discounted rate options and no lender fee future refinancing may be available for qualified buyers of this home.

16. 2002-06-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,191 · $433/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,472 · $456/mo
• Expected delta: +$281/yr (+$23/mo · 5.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,350
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$5,191
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,348
• − Management: −$2,348
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$7,479
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,795
• After-tax cash flow: $-520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Oak ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836660
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $71,110
• Composite: 34.88/100
• National rank: #5084
• State rank: #384 of 826 in TX

Livability — Red Oak

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #435
• US rank: #8931

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Red Oak, TX
• County: Ellis County · 199,237 people
• City population: 52,516
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,516
• Household income: $100,388
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1081.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 12% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.06%
• Current HPI: 294.5836
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.99%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $299,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $303,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $315,000 NTREIS
• 2002-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,191 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.