209 W Miracle Strip Pkwy Unit D102 · Mary Esther, FL 32569

$136,600

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 641 sqft · Condo public records · 262 Days on market

Built 1974 $213/sqft · 20% above area Est $171k · 20% under $598/mo HOA · 37% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy waterfront living in this charming 1 bed/1 bath condo in the Cedars. This condominium complex comes with a long list of amenities including a perfectly shaded 8ft pool overlooking the Santa Rosa Sound, a community dock for fishing or sitting while you take in the breathtaking views, a kayak rack to store your kayak free of charge, a pool house for hosting parties and a fully stocked laundry facility. This first-floor is spacious unit with a nice sized master bedroom, balcony with extra storage and galley kitchen. The association takes care of the exterior insurance, maintenance and upkeep, pest control, and water/sewer and trash. Fully Funished

Key facts

• Kayak rack
• Shaded pool
• Pool house

Tags

• WATERFRONT LIVING
• SHADED POOL
• COMMUNITY DOCK
• KAYAK RACK
• POOL HOUSE
• LAUNDRY FACILITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $137k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-208 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $100k (26.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $137k).
• Recommended offer: $100k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#2 in FL, #137 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 175 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $944 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 262 days — a 12% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $137k implies a 242% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.

Recommended offer $99,879 (26.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 262 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.52%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,759
• List price: $136,600
• Delta: -20.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-39,715
• Equity at exit: $20,368

10-year hold

• IRR: -81.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.79×
• Total profit: $-68,335
• Equity at exit: $11,811

Cash invested: $38,248 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32569

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$716
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,207/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$598
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,863

Max offer price $99,879

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-131	-5% $-169	+0% $-208	+5% $-247	+10% $-285
Rent	-10% $-334	-5% $-271	+0% $-208	+5% $-145	+10% $-81
Rate	-1.0pp $-139	-0.5pp $-173	base $-208	+0.5pp $-243	+1.0pp $-279

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,150
• Closing costs: $4,098
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Page Bacon Rd Mary Esther, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1030	$1,827	$1.77	14d	18	0.81mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $598 · $7,176/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $136,600 Active 262 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $136,600 Active 261 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $136,600 Active 260 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $136,600 Active 259 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $136,600 Active 257 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $136,600 Active 256 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $136,600 Active 254 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $136,600 Active 253 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $136,600 Active 252 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $136,600 Active 251 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $136,600 Active 249 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $136,600 Active 248 DOM
13. 2026-05-01
    status Active 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    Enjoy waterfront living in this charming 1 bed/1 bath condo in the Cedars. This condominium complex comes with a long list of amenities including a perfectly shaded 8ft pool overlooking the Santa Rosa Sound, a community dock for fishing or sitting while you take in the breathtaking views, a kayak rack to store your kayak free of charge, a pool house for hosting parties and a fully stocked laundry facility. This first-floor is spacious unit with a nice sized master bedroom, balcony with extra storage and galley kitchen. The association takes care of the exterior insurance, maintenance and upkeep, pest control, and water/sewer and trash. Fully Funished

14. 2026-04-07
    status Active 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    Enjoy waterfront living in this charming 1 bed/1 bath condo in the Cedars. This condominium complex comes with a long list of amenities including a perfectly shaded 8ft pool overlooking the Santa Rosa Sound, a community dock for fishing or sitting while you take in the breathtaking views, a kayak rack to store your kayak free of charge, a pool house for hosting parties and a fully stocked laundry facility. This first-floor is spacious unit with a nice sized master bedroom, balcony with extra storage and galley kitchen. The association takes care of the exterior insurance, maintenance and upkeep, pest control, and water/sewer and trash. Fully Funished

15. 2025-11-07
    price $136,600 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    Enjoy waterfront living in this charming 1 bed/1 bath condo in the Cedars. This condominium complex comes with a long list of amenities including a perfectly shaded 8ft pool overlooking the Santa Rosa Sound, a community dock for fishing or sitting while you take in the breathtaking views, a kayak rack to store your kayak free of charge, a pool house for hosting parties and a fully stocked laundry facility. This first-floor is spacious unit with a nice sized master bedroom, balcony with extra storage and galley kitchen. The association takes care of the exterior insurance, maintenance and upkeep, pest control, and water/sewer and trash. Fully Funished

16. 2025-09-16
    listed $146,500 Active 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    Enjoy waterfront living in this charming 1 bed/1 bath condo in the Cedars. This condominium complex comes with a long list of amenities including a perfectly shaded 8ft pool overlooking the Santa Rosa Sound, a community dock for fishing or sitting while you take in the breathtaking views, a kayak rack to store your kayak free of charge, a pool house for hosting parties and a fully stocked laundry facility. This first-floor is spacious unit with a nice sized master bedroom, balcony with extra storage and galley kitchen. The association takes care of the exterior insurance, maintenance and upkeep, pest control, and water/sewer and trash. Fully Funished

17. 2025-07-08
    status Active
18. 2024-12-05
    price $160,000
19. 2024-12-04
    status Active
20. 2024-09-03
    status Active
21. 2024-03-14
    price $168,600
22. 2024-03-13
    price $165,000
23. 2024-03-12
    status Active
24. 2023-07-23
    historical
25. 2023-03-02
    listed $155,000 Active
26. 2016-09-21
    soldstatus $40,000
27. 2016-09-15
    soldstatus $40,000
28. 2016-09-15
    soldstatus $40,000
29. 2015-07-10
    listed $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,207 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,207 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,652
• − Property taxes: −$1,207
• − Insurance: −$683
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − HOA: −$7,176
• − Depreciation: −$3,974
• Taxable loss: −$4,564
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,095
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,399/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Mary Esther

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #137

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mary Esther, FL
• County: Okaloosa County · 194,352 people
• City population: 12,063
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,063
• Household income: $77,718
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 416.0

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Two or more races 12% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.13%
• Current HPI: 269.266
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.45%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+203.6% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Relisted — ECAR
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — ECAR
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $136,600 ECAR
• 2025-09-16 Listed $146,500 ECAR
• 2025-07-08 Relisted — ECAR
• 2024-12-05 Price Changed $160,000 ECAR
• 2024-12-04 Relisted — ECAR
• 2024-09-03 Relisted — ECAR
• 2024-03-14 Price Changed $168,600 ECAR
• 2024-03-13 Price Changed $165,000 ECAR
• 2024-03-12 Relisted — ECAR
• 2023-07-23 Delisted — ECAR
• 2023-03-02 Listed $155,000 ECAR
• 2016-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2016-09-15 Sold (MLS) $40,000 NAMLS
• 2016-09-15 Sold (MLS) $40,000 ECAR
• 2015-07-10 Listed $45,000 NAMLS

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,207 · -10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.