903 Burnwood Rd · Downsville, NY 13783

$109,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 856 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1974 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Sitting on the outskirts of a river town. Enjoy your down time simply minutes from the East Branch of the river The home is tidy and has 2 bedrooms 1 bath. Simple hideaway at a simple price. Call today

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 1974
• Listed 23 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual taxes listed

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Slab foundation; 856 above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Wooded lot (approximately 0.5 acre)

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($78/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 1.9% in Downsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#959 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Roscoe Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #689 of 755 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Delaware County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($754 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Delaware County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $98,073 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.26%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $59,802
• Equity at exit: $98,196

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.76×
• Total profit: $175,830
• Equity at exit: $211,763

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13783

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $981 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,815/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $972

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $109,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $109,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $109,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $109,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,815 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,829 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$14/yr (+$1/mo · 0.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,769
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$1,815
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$942
• − Management: −$942
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable loss: −$1,751
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$420
• After-tax cash flow: $498/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roscoe Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625020
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,743
• Composite: 33.05/100
• National rank: #10658
• State rank: #689 of 755 in NY

Livability — Downsville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #959
• US rank: #18785

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,200

Population outlook (Delaware County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,668 people
• By 2030: 40,337 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 35,514 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 31,265 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 24,455 · -42.7%
• By 2100: 19,529 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Delaware

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 40.1% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -5.2pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+18.4 2016: R+29.2 2012: R+9.6 2008: R+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.62%
• Current HPI: 484.0977
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $109,000 GBAOR

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,815 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.