4303 Shadowwod Dr · Bemiss, GA 31605

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,366 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 2000 0.75 ac lot $161/sqft · at area comps Est $216k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Home located in the Spring Creek Subdivision on 3/4 of an acre. Don't miss this 3BR/2 BA, 1366 SQ. FT. home featuring a split floor plan, tray ceilings, and a cozy fireplace. Enjoy the living room with a nice wood burning fireplace on these cool nights. The primary suite offers a garden tub and separate vanity area. Enjoy a two car garage, very spacious laundry room with washer and dryer included. The back yard is completely fenced in, plenty of space for kids to play or four legged friends to roam. This property is located in a very desirable county school zone. Don't miss this one, call for a showing today.

Key facts

• Fenced back yard
• Split floor plan
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• COZY FIREPLACE
• GARDEN TUB
• SEPARATE VANITY AREA
• FENCED BACK YARD
• DESIRABLE COUNTY SCHOOL ZONE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33 ($391/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.7% in Bemiss — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Moulton-Branch Elementary School (math 58% / reading 38%, grade D, #289 of 1,228 statewide, top 24%, 558 students, 71% FRL); Pine Grove Middle School (math 56% / reading 57%, grade B, #48 of 470 statewide, top 10%, 742 students, 50% FRL); Lowndes High School (math 69% / reading 51%, grade C+, #14 of 424 statewide, top 3%, 3,201 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 233 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,680 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.63%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,513
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: 2.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4513 Windward Ct	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,397 (+2%)	0mo	$230,000	$165	84
3821 Saddlebred Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,341 (-2%)	10mo	$218,750	$163	76
3859 Studstill Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,482 (+8%)	1mo	$240,000	$162	67
3823 Merriman Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,509 (+10%)	2mo	$225,000	$149	66
6444 Abney Ct	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+8%)	9mo	$248,000	$169	63
3875 Studstill Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+12%)	10mo	$253,500	$165	56
3799 Ridgemere Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+12%)	10mo	$239,900	$156	53
3963 Karaline Cir	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+9%)	4mo	$257,000	$173	50
3859 Stratford Cir	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,519 (+11%)	2mo	$239,900	$158	49
4008 Muirfield Ln	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,546 (+13%)	7mo	$247,000	$160	44
3941 Greenridge Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,530 (+12%)	11mo	$215,000	$141	41
3946 Stratford Cir	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+15%)	9mo	$239,900	$153	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-29,838
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-7,295
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31605

• Home prices YoY: -11.5%
• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,787 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,604/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,746

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $157	-5% $95	+0% $33	+5% $-30	+10% $-92
Rent	-10% $-109	-5% $-38	+0% $33	+5% $103	+10% $174
Rate	-1.0pp $143	-0.5pp $89	base $33	+0.5pp $-24	+1.0pp $-82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3824 Brookfield Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1517	$2,000	$1.32	22d	1	0.30mi
3875 Trotters Ridge Cir Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,700	$1.32	22d	1	0.42mi
3964 Crusader Ct Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,400	$1.30	22d	1	0.69mi
3905 Greenridge Rd Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,400	$1.00	45d	1	0.84mi
3911 Nicole Ln Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,700	$1.31	22d	1	0.86mi
3912 Duke Ct Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,000	$1.08	22d	1	0.88mi
4125 Barrington Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,500	$1.24	45d	1	1.00mi
6412 Abney Ct Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.5	1459	$1,500	$1.03	22d	1	1.07mi
6416 Abney Ct Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.5	1459	$1,500	$1.03	45d	1	1.07mi
4032 Case Pt Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1664	$2,050	$1.23	22d	1	1.07mi
3905 Heatherwoods Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,350	$1.08	22d	1	1.09mi
3925 Glen Laurel Dr S Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,850	$1.23	22d	1	1.11mi
6042 Bemiss Towns Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1537	$1,700	$1.11	22d	1	1.17mi
6023 Bemiss Towns Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.5	1498	$1,550	$1.03	22d	1	1.17mi
6043 Bemiss Towns Dr Bemiss, GA	3.0	2.5	1498	$1,675	$1.12	22d	1	1.17mi
3844 Coventry Dr Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1765	$1,950	$1.10	22d	1	1.18mi
3553 Studstill Rd Valdosta, GA	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,000	$0.96	22d	1	1.22mi
4184 Hamilton Cir Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1213	$1,300	$1.07	22d	1	1.28mi
4001 Conway Cir Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1797	$2,000	$1.11	22d	1	1.35mi
3491 Studstill Rd Unit A Valdosta, GA	2.0	2.0	1007	$1,200	$1.19	45d	1	1.39mi
4051 Gramercy Dr Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,300	$1.30	22d	1	1.41mi
5026 Pearl Davis Rd Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,200	$0.99	22d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 625-char remark

   Show marketing remark (625 chars)

   Charming Home located in the Spring Creek Subdivision on 3/4 of an acre. Don't miss this 3BR/2 BA, 1366 SQ. FT. home featuring a split floor plan, tray ceilings, and a cozy fireplace. Enjoy the living room with a nice wood burning fireplace on these cool nights. The primary suite offers a garden tub and separate vanity area. Enjoy a two car garage, very spacious laundry room with washer and dryer included. The back yard is completely fenced in, plenty of space for kids to play or four legged friends to roam. This property is located in a very desirable county school zone. Don't miss this one, call for a showing today.

2. 2026-04-29
   price $220,000 625-char remark

   Show marketing remark (625 chars)

   Charming Home located in the Spring Creek Subdivision on 3/4 of an acre. Don't miss this 3BR/2 BA, 1366 SQ. FT. home featuring a split floor plan, tray ceilings, and a cozy fireplace. Enjoy the living room with a nice wood burning fireplace on these cool nights. The primary suite offers a garden tub and separate vanity area. Enjoy a two car garage, very spacious laundry room with washer and dryer included. The back yard is completely fenced in, plenty of space for kids to play or four legged friends to roam. This property is located in a very desirable county school zone. Don't miss this one, call for a showing today.

3. 2026-04-11
   price $225,000 625-char remark

   Show marketing remark (625 chars)

   Charming Home located in the Spring Creek Subdivision on 3/4 of an acre. Don't miss this 3BR/2 BA, 1366 SQ. FT. home featuring a split floor plan, tray ceilings, and a cozy fireplace. Enjoy the living room with a nice wood burning fireplace on these cool nights. The primary suite offers a garden tub and separate vanity area. Enjoy a two car garage, very spacious laundry room with washer and dryer included. The back yard is completely fenced in, plenty of space for kids to play or four legged friends to roam. This property is located in a very desirable county school zone. Don't miss this one, call for a showing today.

4. 2026-03-03
   listed $229,900 Active 625-char remark

   Show marketing remark (625 chars)

   Charming Home located in the Spring Creek Subdivision on 3/4 of an acre. Don't miss this 3BR/2 BA, 1366 SQ. FT. home featuring a split floor plan, tray ceilings, and a cozy fireplace. Enjoy the living room with a nice wood burning fireplace on these cool nights. The primary suite offers a garden tub and separate vanity area. Enjoy a two car garage, very spacious laundry room with washer and dryer included. The back yard is completely fenced in, plenty of space for kids to play or four legged friends to roam. This property is located in a very desirable county school zone. Don't miss this one, call for a showing today.

5. 2022-11-29
   soldstatus $190,000
6. 2022-10-18
   listed $195,000
7. 2018-06-19
   soldstatus $126,500
8. 2018-04-20
   listed $126,500
9. 2001-02-28
   soldstatus $94,800
10. 2001-02-02
    soldstatus $84,700
11. 2000-08-21
    soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,604 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,024 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$420/yr (+$35/mo · 26.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,604
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,715
• − Management: −$1,715
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,416
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$820
• After-tax cash flow: $1,211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lowndes County
• NCES district ID: 1303390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,221
• Composite: 47.21/100
• National rank: #2317
• State rank: #8 of 174 in GA

Livability — Bemiss

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bemiss, GA
• County: Lowndes County · 107,801 people
• City population: 24,280
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 24,829
• Household income: $79,156
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 642.0

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.74%
• Current HPI: 189.8471
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.07%
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+279.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — SGMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $220,000 SGMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $225,000 SGMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $229,900 SGMLS
• 2022-11-29 Sold (MLS) $190,000 SGMLS
• 2022-10-18 Listed $195,000 SGMLS
• 2018-06-19 Sold (MLS) $126,500 SGMLS
• 2018-04-20 Listed $126,500 SGMLS
• 2001-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $94,800 Public Records
• 2001-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $84,700 Public Records
• 2000-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,604 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.