417 Elm St · Mancelona, MI 49659

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1940 8,024 sqft lot Est $191k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here is an opportunity to finish it your way It has a newer roof and updated electrical panel and bathroom. come check it out and see it for yourself , great way to build some sweat equity Cash or conventional terms, property is being sold AS IS with no repairs from the sellers.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Updated bathroom
• 8,024 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL PANEL
• UPDATED BATHROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Electric water heater
• Home design: Ranch-style single family residence; Built in 1940
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Crawl space/partial basement
• Exterior features: Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Bedroom 2; Bedroom 3
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; Crawl space/partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $231 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.3% in Mancelona — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#105 in MI, #2,568 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mancelona Public Schools (rural): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #310 of 540 in MI (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 101 units permitted in Antrim County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Antrim County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $106,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.98%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $190,624
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
401 Monroe St	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,408 (+9%)	8mo	$231,000	$164	68
8431 N Maple Ave	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,284 (-0%)	13mo	$231,000	$180	67
219 E Main St	0.39mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,345 (+4%)	6mo	$125,000	$93	64
208 S Washington St Lot : 20	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,260 (-2%)	18mo	$222,450	$177	55
8934 Roberts Rd	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,180 (-8%)	9mo	$175,000	$148	50
8869 Townview Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,305 (+1%)	12mo	$159,500	$122	50
510 S Maple St	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,192 (-8%)	8mo	$135,200	$113	48
8324 Us-131	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,150 (-11%)	22mo	$159,000	$138	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-3,165
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $16,061
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49659

• Home prices YoY: -29.7%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,173 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $882/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $881

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $110,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $118,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $118,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $118,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $118,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $118,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    listed $125,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Here is an opportunity to finish it your way It has a newer roof and updated electrical panel and bathroom. come check it out and see it for yourself , great way to build some sweat equity Cash or conventional terms, property is being sold AS IS with no repairs from the sellers.

17. 2026-05-16
    listed $125,000 Active 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Here is an opportunity to finish it your way It has a newer roof and updated electrical panel and bathroom. come check it out and see it for yourself , great way to build some sweat equity Cash or conventional terms, property is being sold AS IS with no repairs from the sellers.

18. 2026-05-16
    listed $125,000 Active 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Here is an opportunity to finish it your way It has a newer roof and updated electrical panel and bathroom. come check it out and see it for yourself , great way to build some sweat equity Cash or conventional terms, property is being sold AS IS with no repairs from the sellers.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $882 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,288 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$406/yr (+$34/mo · 46.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,076
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$882
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,126
• − Management: −$1,126
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $1,031
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$247
• After-tax cash flow: $2,519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mancelona Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2622350
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $39,613
• Composite: 28.89/100
• National rank: #6639
• State rank: #310 of 540 in MI

Livability — Mancelona

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #2568

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mancelona, MI
• Population (ZIP): 7,226

Population outlook (Antrim County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,804 people
• By 2030: 20,814 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 18,394 · -15.6%
• By 2050: 15,981 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 11,712 · -46.3%
• By 2100: 7,651 · -64.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Antrim

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.8) · D 37.5% · R 61.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.3pp · 2024: -23.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.8 2020: R+23.8 2016: R+29.6 2012: R+21.3 2008: R+10.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.79%
• Current HPI: 245.5937
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $125,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-16 Listed $125,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-16 Listed $125,000 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $882 · -12.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.