55 Laurin St #32 · Lake Monticello, VA 22902

$325,585

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,866 sqft · Townhouse · 7 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 3,049 sqft lot Est $313k · at est. $95/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New construction End Unit 4-bedroom, 3.5Bath, 1-car garage townhome offering quartz countertops, all-new GE appliances, and stylish, modern finishes throughout. Designed for comfort and convenience with low-maintenance living in mind. Anticipated completion June — secure your new home now!

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Modern finishes
• Ge appliances

Tags

• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• GE APPLIANCES
• MODERN FINISHES
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $326k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-227 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.6% in Lake Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#284 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fluvanna County Public School District (rural): math 61% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #34 of 131 in VA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary (715 students, 52% FRL); Fluvanna Middle (math 65% / reading 70%, grade A-, #98 of 342 statewide, top 30%, 763 students, 42% FRL); Fluvanna County High (math 60% / reading 76%, grade B, #180 of 319 statewide, top 57%, 1,488 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 23% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 278 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 138 units permitted in Fluvanna County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $268,144 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.98%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $313,488
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
55 Laurin St #32	0.00mi	4/3.5	1,866 (0%)	0mo	$315,585	$169	100
120 Saxon St	0.06mi	4/3.5	1,866 (0%)	1mo	$328,830	$176	96
130 Saxon St Lot 73	0.07mi	4/3.5	1,866 (0%)	1mo	$312,590	$168	96
43 Laurin St Lot 30	0.07mi	4/3.5	1,866 (0%)	2mo	$311,990	$167	95
106 Saxon St #106	0.00mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,833 (-2%)	1mo	$299,990	$164	89
110 Saxon St	0.06mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,866 (0%)	2mo	$299,000	$160	88
103 Oldfield Dr	0.19mi	4/3.5	1,814 (-3%)	3mo	$299,990	$165	84
47 Laurin St #31	0.00mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,800 (-4%)	2mo	$314,990	$175	84
97 Oldfield Dr	0.20mi	4/3.5	1,814 (-3%)	3mo	$314,035	$173	83
99 Oldfield Dr	0.19mi	4/3.5	1,800 (-4%)	3mo	$297,490	$165	83
41 Laurin St #29	0.16mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,833 (-2%)	1mo	$289,990	$158	82
114 Saxon St	0.02mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,800 (-4%)	4mo	$312,000	$173	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-68,521
• Equity at exit: $48,546

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-83,633
• Equity at exit: $28,151

Cash invested: $91,164 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22902

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 278
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,681 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,707
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$407 /mo · $4,884/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$95
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$563
• Net cashflow: $-227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,968

Max offer price $292,780

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2	-5% $-114	+0% $-227	+5% $-339	+10% $-452
Rent	-10% $-439	-5% $-333	+0% $-227	+5% $-121	+10% $-15
Rate	-1.0pp $-63	-0.5pp $-144	base $-227	+0.5pp $-311	+1.0pp $-397

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,396
• Closing costs: $9,768
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37 Laurin St Cunningham, VA	4.0	3.5	1800	$2,350	$1.31	14d	1	0.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $95 · $1,140/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   listed $325,585 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,238
• − Property taxes: −$4,884
• − Insurance: −$1,628
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,574
• − Management: −$2,574
• − HOA: −$1,140
• − Depreciation: −$9,472
• Taxable loss: −$8,332
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,000
• After-tax cash flow: $-721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This newly constructed townhome is move-in ready with excellent condition and modern finishes. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate its low-maintenance living and curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and is easier to maintain
• Both Install smart home automation — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and is easier to maintain ↑
• Both Install smart home automation — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fluvanna County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101380
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,601
• Composite: 57.6/100
• National rank: #1065
• State rank: #34 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake Monticello

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #284
• US rank: #10173

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Monticello, VA
• County: Albemarle County · 129,350 people
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 23,486
• Household income: $93,463
• Rent vs Own: 46.8% rent · 53.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 894.0

Population outlook (Fluvanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,237 people
• By 2030: 27,607 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 28,075 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 28,019 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 28,058 · +3.0%
• By 2100: 26,124 · -4.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fluvanna

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.3) · D 46.4% · R 52.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: -6.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.3 2020: R+4.7 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+6.2 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -372.57%
• Current HPI: 295.9918
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — CAAR
• 2026-03-26 Listed $325,585 CAAR