402 N Davis Ave · Murray, NE 68409

$172,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1925 7,405 sqft lot $112/sqft · 23% below area Est $218k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

SSDL. Very nice older 3 bed 2 bath 1 car home. Walk to parks, schools & quaint main street of Murray. Roof AC & Furnace 2010. Newer windows. Sewer line replaced 2016. Needs a little TLC & updates but great solid bones. Detached garage. Level rear yard. Cool enclosed sun porch on the front to watch the world go by. A diamond in the rough.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1925

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached covered garage with 1 parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half stories; Built in 1925; Living area approximately 1498 square feet; Not new / not a model
• Construction: Other foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch; Lot about 0.17 acre (up to 1/4 acre)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main floor; Second bedroom on main floor; Third bedroom on second floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; Main-level bathroom; Below-grade bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full basement; No fireplaces

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $172k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-387/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#316 in NE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conestoga Public Schools (rural): math 52% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #26 of 111 in NE (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Conestoga Elementary School (math 60% / reading 59%, grade B-, #111 of 502 statewide, top 26%, 393 students, 28% FRL); Conestoga Jr/Sr High School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #107 of 261 statewide, top 52%, 316 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 86 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Cass County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $71k; list at $172k implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $138,766 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.80%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,468
• List price: $172,000
• Delta: -21.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
103 E Main St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,688 (+10%)	1mo	$239,000	$142	66
306 N Latta Ave	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,565 (+2%)	18mo	$210,000	$134	65
109 E Campbell St	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,465 (-5%)	19mo	$218,000	$149	58
112 W Campbell St	0.15mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,685 (+10%)	20mo	$110,000	$65	56
212 E Campbell St	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,310 (-15%)	20mo	$195,000	$149	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $19,052
• Equity at exit: $77,765

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $70,209
• Equity at exit: $120,177

Cash invested: $48,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68409

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,388 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$902
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,858/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,428

Max offer price $166,308

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,000
• Closing costs: $5,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $172,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $172,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $172,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $172,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $172,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $172,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $172,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $172,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $172,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    remarks 128-char remark
11. 2026-06-08
    price $172,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $177,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $177,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $177,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $177,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $177,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $177,000 Active 31 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    price $177,000 117-char remark
19. 2026-04-30
    listed $182,000 New 117-char remark
20. 2025-11-14
    historical
21. 2025-10-16
    listed $170,000 New
22. 2022-10-03
    soldstatus $71,000
23. 2020-11-02
    soldstatus $95,000
24. 2020-10-30
    soldstatus $95,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    SSDL. Very nice older 3 bed 2 bath 1 car home. Walk to parks, schools & quaint main street of Murray. Roof AC & Furnace 2010. Newer windows. Sewer line replaced 2016. Needs a little TLC & updates but great solid bones. Detached garage. Level rear yard. Cool enclosed sun porch on the front to watch the world go by. A diamond in the rough.

25. 2020-10-02
    listed $95,000

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    SSDL. Very nice older 3 bed 2 bath 1 car home. Walk to parks, schools & quaint main street of Murray. Roof AC & Furnace 2010. Newer windows. Sewer line replaced 2016. Needs a little TLC & updates but great solid bones. Detached garage. Level rear yard. Cool enclosed sun porch on the front to watch the world go by. A diamond in the rough.

26. 2020-10-02
    historical

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    SSDL. Very nice older 3 bed 2 bath 1 car home. Walk to parks, schools & quaint main street of Murray. Roof AC & Furnace 2010. Newer windows. Sewer line replaced 2016. Needs a little TLC & updates but great solid bones. Detached garage. Level rear yard. Cool enclosed sun porch on the front to watch the world go by. A diamond in the rough.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,858 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,976 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,118/yr (+$93/mo · 60.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,652
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,635
• − Property taxes: −$1,858
• − Insurance: −$860
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,332
• − Management: −$1,332
• − Depreciation: −$5,004
• Taxable loss: −$3,369
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$808
• After-tax cash flow: $422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conestoga Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3174200
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $73,758
• Composite: 49.19/100
• National rank: #2040
• State rank: #26 of 111 in NE

Livability — Murray

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #316
• US rank: #11784

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Murray, NE
• Population (ZIP): 656

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,174 people
• By 2030: 26,293 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 26,112 · -0.2%
• By 2050: 25,329 · -3.2%
• By 2075: 23,744 · -9.3%
• By 2100: 20,901 · -20.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.2) · D 30.6% · R 67.8% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -37.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.2 2020: R+35.1 2016: R+39.1 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.04%
• Current HPI: 228.1293
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+81.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Price Changed $172,000 GPRMLS
• 2026-06-07 Price Changed $173,000 GPRMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $177,000 GPRMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $182,000 GPRMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listing Removed — GPRMLS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $170,000 GPRMLS
• 2022-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $71,000 Public Records
• 2020-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-30 Sold (MLS) $95,000 GPRMLS
• 2020-10-02 Listing Removed — GPRMLS
• 2020-10-02 Listed $95,000 GPRMLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,858 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.