3617 Herman St · Louisville, KY 40212

$49,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 848 sqft · SingleFamily · 45 Days on market

Built 1920 4,440 sqft lot Est $75k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor alert—opportunity is knocking in Louisville's growing 40211 corridor. Whether your strategy is fix-and-flip, buy-and-hold, or adding a cash-flowing rental to your portfolio, this is a chance to capitalize on one of Louisville's most affordable entry points with strong upside. The 40211 market continues to attract attention for its revitalization potential, accessible price points, and steady demand for quality housing—making this an ideal project for investors ready to unlock value. Bring your vision, run your numbers, and turn this investor special into your next smart move.

Key facts

• 4,440 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 45 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Watterson to Market to 38th to street
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: No parking
• Utilities: No utilities listed
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Built in 1920; Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Above-grade finished area and below-grade unfinished area reported
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.1 acres (30 x 148); Subdivision: PUSEY ADDN

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Heating present
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: No first-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($991 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 140 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($36k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.01%
• DSCR: 2.69
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $75,472
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3446 W Jefferson St	0.09mi	1/1.0 (-1)	874 (+3%)	12mo	$78,000	$89	76
3425 Vermont Ave	0.29mi	2/1.0	912 (+8%)	4mo	$36,500	$40	71
503 S 32nd St	0.42mi	2/1.0	832 (-2%)	8mo	$35,000	$42	71
3226 W Jefferson St	0.30mi	2/1.0	920 (+8%)	6mo	$48,000	$52	67
320 N 36th St	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	830 (-2%)	3mo	$111,575	$134	66
300 N 36th St	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	850 (+0%)	15mo	$140,000	$165	64
3831 W Muhammad Ali Blvd	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	760 (-10%)	10mo	$60,000	$79	59
2831 W Madison St	0.74mi	2/1.0	937 (+10%)	1mo	$108,000	$115	47
3120 W Jefferson St	0.40mi	1/1.0 (-1)	731 (-14%)	9mo	$89,000	$122	46
401 N 42nd St	0.72mi	2/1.0	780 (-8%)	13mo	$69,000	$88	42
3924 Garfield Ave	0.63mi	2/1.0	972 (+15%)	8mo	$57,500	$59	39
2822 Rowan St	0.73mi	2/1.0	944 (+11%)	10mo	$120,000	$127	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.54×
• Total profit: $49,448
• Equity at exit: $44,954

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.72×
• Total profit: $121,891
• Equity at exit: $96,945

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40212

• Home prices YoY: 11.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $991 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $697/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $501

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $415	-5% $401	+0% $387	+5% $373	+10% $359
Rent	-10% $309	-5% $348	+0% $387	+5% $426	+10% $465
Rate	-1.0pp $412	-0.5pp $400	base $387	+0.5pp $374	+1.0pp $361

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
111 Hansbrough Pl Unit 101 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	686	$890	$1.30	24d	1	0.17mi
110 Hansbrough Pl Unit 101 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	924	$1,080	$1.17	24d	1	0.20mi
3416 W Main St Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	667	$825	$1.24	24d	1	0.23mi
103 N 38th St Apt 4 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	625	$950	$1.52	18d	1	0.24mi
3819 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1108	$1,090	$0.98	21d	1	0.38mi
3421 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	994	$1,250	$1.26	24d	1	0.39mi
247 Cecil Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1083	$1,305	$1.20	20d	1	0.40mi
127 Boston Ct Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	725	$1,100	$1.52	24d	1	0.41mi
4141 W Market St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	771	$925	$1.20	4d	1	0.43mi
302 Cecil Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	984	$1,025	$1.04	17d	1	0.43mi
4143 W Market St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	24d	1	0.44mi
219 N 37th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	700	$1,150	$1.64	24d	1	0.44mi
4018 Vermont Ave Unit 1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	700	$699	$1.00	4d	1	0.44mi
112 Boston Ct Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	650	$800	$1.23	24d	1	0.44mi
320 N 36th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	830	$1,225	$1.48	17d	1	0.45mi
3124 Vermont Ave Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	650	$699	$1.08	24d	1	0.53mi
3124 Vermont Ave Unit 3124-1 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	650	$695	$1.07	24d	1	0.53mi
3901 Jewell Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1069	$1,140	$1.07	21d	1	0.56mi
648 S 37th St #3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	807	$850	$1.05	24d	1	0.56mi
652 S 37th St #9 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1070	$1,095	$1.02	24d	1	0.57mi
313 N 42nd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	4d	1	0.58mi
3910 Garfield Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	872	$1,035	$1.19	4d	1	0.60mi
2927 Rowan St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,205	$1.20	12d	1	0.63mi
691 Madelon Ct Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	650	$675	$1.04	12d	1	0.64mi
666 Eastlawn Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	936	$895	$0.96	17d	1	0.69mi
115 N 46th St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	650	$750	$1.15	24d	1	0.76mi
112 S 46th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	902	$1,200	$1.33	24d	1	0.76mi
701 Hazel St Unit 3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	832	$800	$0.96	11d	1	0.81mi
2925 Slevin St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	896	$775	$0.86	4d	1	0.81mi
729 S 39th St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	24d	1	0.81mi
714 S 40th St #2 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	24d	1	0.82mi
2718 W Jefferson St Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	633	$699	$1.10	22d	1	0.83mi
2718 W Jefferson St Unit 2718-3 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	633	$699	$1.10	24d	1	0.83mi
4309 Elliott Ave Unit 1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$650	$0.87	4d	1	0.85mi
4309 Elliott Ave Unit 1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$695	$0.93	24d	1	0.85mi
814 S 33rd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,350	$1.22	4d	1	0.89mi
2623 Cedar St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	24d	1	0.90mi
2614 W Jefferson St Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	633	$695	$1.10	21d	1	0.90mi
2614 W Jefferson St Unit 2614-4 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	740	$795	$1.07	24d	1	0.90mi
2631 W Madison St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	928	$850	$0.92	24d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,900 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,900 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-04
    listed $49,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $697 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $697 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,895
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$697
• − Insurance: −$916
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$952
• − Management: −$952
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $4,132
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$992
• After-tax cash flow: $3,652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 14,661
• Household income: $35,753
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1148.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 37% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.02%
• Current HPI: 293.2624
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.51%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $49,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+140.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $697 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.