Emily Plan · Midlothian, TX 76065

$316,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,127 sqft · Townhouse · 590 Days on market

↓ 13% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You will love the open concept design of the main floor! The kitchen island overlooks the dining and family room, making it perfect for entertaining. Relax in the upstairs game room by playing your favorite games and movies. Every bedroom has walk-in closets, with the laundry on the second floor for convenience. Owner's suite is separate from the additional bedrooms for privacy, and has a huge walk-in closet to adore!

Key facts

• Walk-in closets
• Open concept design
• Upstairs game room

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• KITCHEN ISLAND OVERLOOKS
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• UPSTAIRS GAME ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $316,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $345,354.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $317k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-381 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.5% in Midlothian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Irvin El (math 49% / reading 47%, grade D, #971 of 4,322 statewide, top 23%, 650 students, 54% FRL); Frank Seale Middle (math 42% / reading 41%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 671 students, 55% FRL); Midlothian H S (math 48% / reading 55%, grade D+, #478 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 1,994 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 22% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 1135 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 590 days — a 12% lower offer ($279k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $253,896 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 590 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.73%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $345,354
• List price: $316,990
• Delta: -8.21%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1015 Magdalena Way	0.07mi	3/2.5	2,127 (0%)	0mo	$319,990	$150	96
1031 Magdalena Way	0.03mi	3/2.5	2,127 (0%)	5mo	$329,990	$155	95
1011 Magdalena Way	0.08mi	3/2.5	2,277 (+7%)	2mo	$344,990	$152	83
1017 Magdalena Way	0.07mi	3/2.5	2,306 (+8%)	2mo	$359,990	$156	81
210 Dylan Way	0.10mi	3/2.5	2,277 (+7%)	6mo	$356,990	$157	78
230 Dylan Way	0.12mi	3/2.5	2,306 (+8%)	4mo	$361,990	$157	77
1035 Magdalena Way	0.02mi	3/2.5	2,277 (+7%)	14mo	$369,990	$162	76
224 Dylan Way	0.11mi	3/2.5	2,306 (+8%)	6mo	$359,990	$156	76
208 Dylan Way	0.10mi	3/2.5	2,306 (+8%)	8mo	$359,990	$156	75
1021 Magdalena Way	0.05mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,900 (-11%)	1mo	$321,500	$169	74
1033 Magdalena Way	0.02mi	3/2.5	2,306 (+8%)	14mo	$381,510	$165	73
1029 Magdalena Way	0.03mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,900 (-11%)	4mo	$315,990	$166	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-76,766
• Equity at exit: $51,493

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-83,526
• Equity at exit: $29,860

Cash invested: $96,699 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76065

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 1135
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,539 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,811
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$432 /mo · $5,180/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,021

Max offer price $290,240

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-142	-5% $-262	+0% $-381	+5% $-500	+10% $-620
Rent	-10% $-581	-5% $-481	+0% $-381	+5% $-281	+10% $-180
Rate	-1.0pp $-207	-0.5pp $-293	base $-381	+0.5pp $-470	+1.0pp $-561

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,339
• Closing costs: $10,361
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
410 Roundabout Dr Midlothian, TX	3.0	2.0	1728	$2,800	$1.62	1d	1	0.52mi
1007 Sierra Vista Ct Midlothian, TX	3.0	2.5	1412	$2,300	$1.63	26d	1	0.72mi
101 W Maple Ridge Ct Unit 155E Midlothian, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,995	$1.24	0d	1	0.78mi
401 East Avenue G Unit G Midlothian, TX	2.0	1.0	1501	$1,700	$1.13	4d	1	0.82mi
411 E Avenue G Midlothian, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,975	$1.29	45d	1	0.82mi
315 E Avenue F Midlothian, TX	3.0	2.0	2014	$2,525	$1.25	9d	1	0.88mi
2618 Fawn Valley Ave Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.5	2892	$3,555	$1.23	26d	1	1.05mi
900 W Avenue F Midlothian, TX	2.0	1.0	1419	$1,950	$1.37	22d	1	1.05mi
2617 Grouse Hollow Way Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2211	$3,300	$1.49	9d	1	1.09mi
254 Ashlawn Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.5	2821	$3,500	$1.24	9d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $316,990 Active 590 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $316,990 Active 588 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $316,990 Active 584 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $316,990 Active 583 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $316,990 Active 582 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $316,990 Active 579 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $316,990 Active 578 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $316,990 Active 577 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $316,990 Active 576 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $316,990 Active 575 DOM
11. 2026-04-15
    price $316,990 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    You will love the open concept design of the main floor! The kitchen island overlooks the dining and family room, making it perfect for entertaining. Relax in the upstairs game room by playing your favorite games and movies. Every bedroom has walk-in closets, with the laundry on the second floor for convenience. Owner's suite is separate from the additional bedrooms for privacy, and has a huge walk-in closet to adore!

12. 2025-06-04
    price $331,990 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    You will love the open concept design of the main floor! The kitchen island overlooks the dining and family room, making it perfect for entertaining. Relax in the upstairs game room by playing your favorite games and movies. Every bedroom has walk-in closets, with the laundry on the second floor for convenience. Owner's suite is separate from the additional bedrooms for privacy, and has a huge walk-in closet to adore!

13. 2025-04-16
    price $341,990 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    You will love the open concept design of the main floor! The kitchen island overlooks the dining and family room, making it perfect for entertaining. Relax in the upstairs game room by playing your favorite games and movies. Every bedroom has walk-in closets, with the laundry on the second floor for convenience. Owner's suite is separate from the additional bedrooms for privacy, and has a huge walk-in closet to adore!

14. 2025-01-08
    price $356,990 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    You will love the open concept design of the main floor! The kitchen island overlooks the dining and family room, making it perfect for entertaining. Relax in the upstairs game room by playing your favorite games and movies. Every bedroom has walk-in closets, with the laundry on the second floor for convenience. Owner's suite is separate from the additional bedrooms for privacy, and has a huge walk-in closet to adore!

15. 2024-11-02
    listed $364,990 Active 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    You will love the open concept design of the main floor! The kitchen island overlooks the dining and family room, making it perfect for entertaining. Relax in the upstairs game room by playing your favorite games and movies. Every bedroom has walk-in closets, with the laundry on the second floor for convenience. Owner's suite is separate from the additional bedrooms for privacy, and has a huge walk-in closet to adore!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,468
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,345
• − Property taxes: −$5,180
• − Insurance: −$1,727
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,437
• − Management: −$2,437
• − Depreciation: −$10,047
• Taxable loss: −$10,706
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,569
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,001/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midlothian ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830600
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $85,068
• Composite: 48.22/100
• National rank: #2165
• State rank: #94 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midlothian

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #7851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midlothian, TX
• County: Ellis County · 199,237 people
• City population: 47,438
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,438
• Household income: $127,756
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 811.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.85%
• Current HPI: 243.5953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.32%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $316,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $331,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed $341,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-08 Price Changed $356,990 Zillow
• 2024-11-02 Listed $364,990 Zillow