21 Open Range Trl · Willis, TX 77318

$79,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Manufactured · 221 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2025 Good condition $73/sqft · 33% below area Est $120k · 33% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.4

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing a stunning and versatile designed home for those who crave an affordable yet luxurious living experience. Featuring a unique layout of 1022 sq. ft. 3 bed/2 bath, this captivating home boasts and well-thought-out living space. The modern open concept living area effortlessly combines functionality and style, providing an inviting atmosphere for time spent with family or entertaining. Enjoy a resort style pool and beautiful walking trails.

Key facts

• Resort style pool
• Unique layout
• Built 2025

Tags

• UNIQUE LAYOUT
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• RESORT STYLE POOL
• BEAUTIFUL WALKING TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $441 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 4.2% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Parmley El (math 39% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 625 students, 72% FRL); Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1387 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.65%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $120,000
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -33.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12751 Paradise View Ct W	0.88mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+3%)	9mo	$140,000	$125	52
11614 Vistawood St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+12%)	4mo	$139,900	$115	52
8888 Water Oak St	0.76mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+3%)	13mo	$195,000	$174	49
9871 Arbor Oak	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+12%)	4mo	$70,000	$58	46
8786 Scarlet Oak	0.76mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+12%)	3mo	$62,900	$52	43
15185 Ridgepoint Cir	0.79mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+12%)	5mo	$120,000	$99	41
13236 Enchanted Vis	1.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+12%)	3mo	$175,000	$144	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $11,465
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $31,977
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 55 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 82.5 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $104,900 ($96/sqft)
• Median days on market: 221 d
• This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +14.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1387
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,257 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $441

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $496	-5% $468	+0% $441	+5% $413	+10% $386
Rent	-10% $342	-5% $391	+0% $441	+5% $490	+10% $540
Rate	-1.0pp $481	-0.5pp $461	base $441	+0.5pp $420	+1.0pp $399

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10090 Calendar St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	920	$1,400	$1.52	7d	1	0.14mi
11561 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,530	$1.53	93d	1	0.38mi
11559 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,490	$1.49	93d	1	0.39mi
11555 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	93d	1	0.39mi
9992 Calendar St Willis, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	93d	1	0.39mi
9745 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	93d	1	0.49mi
9743 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	52d	1	0.49mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	2d	1	1.20mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	53d	1	1.20mi
14541 Enchanted Waters Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,300	$0.96	7d	1	1.22mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	93d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-07-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 221 DOM
2. 2026-07-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 220 DOM
3. 2026-07-11
   days on market $79,900 Active 219 DOM
4. 2026-07-10
   days on market $79,900 Active 218 DOM
5. 2026-07-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 217 DOM
6. 2026-07-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 215 DOM
7. 2026-07-06
   days on market $79,900 Active 214 DOM
8. 2026-07-06
   days on market $79,900 Active 213 DOM
9. 2026-07-05
   days on market $79,900 Active 212 DOM
10. 2026-07-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 211 DOM
11. 2026-07-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 210 DOM
12. 2026-07-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 209 DOM
13. 2026-06-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 208 DOM
14. 2026-06-29
    days on market $79,900 Active 207 DOM
15. 2026-06-28
    days on market $79,900 Active 206 DOM
16. 2026-06-27
    days on market $79,900 Active 205 DOM
17. 2026-06-26
    days on market $79,900 Active 204 DOM
18. 2026-06-24
    days on market $79,900 Active 202 DOM
19. 2026-06-22
    days on market $79,900 Active 200 DOM
20. 2026-06-21
    days on market $79,900 Active 199 DOM
21. 2026-06-18
    days on market $79,900 Active 196 DOM
22. 2026-06-17
    days on market $79,900 Active 195 DOM
23. 2026-06-16
    days on market $79,900 Active 194 DOM
24. 2026-06-15
    days on market $79,900 Active 193 DOM
25. 2026-06-13
    days on market $79,900 Active 191 DOM
26. 2026-06-09
    days on market $79,900 Active 187 DOM
27. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 186 DOM
28. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 185 DOM
29. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 182 DOM
30. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 181 DOM
31. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 180 DOM
32. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 179 DOM
33. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 178 DOM
34. 2025-12-04
    listed $79,900 Active 472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (472 chars)

    Introducing a stunning and versatile designed home for those who crave an affordable yet luxurious living experience. Featuring a unique layout of 1022 sq. ft. 3 bed/2 bath, this captivating home boasts and well-thought-out living space. The modern open concept living area effortlessly combines functionality and style, providing an inviting atmosphere for time spent with family or entertaining. Enjoy a resort style pool and beautiful walking trails. ALL AGES COMMUNITY

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,207
• − Management: −$1,207
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $4,272
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,025
• After-tax cash flow: $4,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready manufactured home offers a good condition with a modern kitchen and a well-maintained exterior. Potential buyers and renters can benefit from minor updates to the exterior and interior to further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a small outdoor seating area — Can increase the home's appeal for both resale and rental purposes. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Parmley El F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 Middle Lynn Lucas Middle F TX #1,156/1,662 Nat'l #9,659/14,009 High Willis H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 0% of renters

---

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-04 Listed $79,900 Zillow