258 Grafton St · Berlin, NH 03570

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,058 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1937 4,791 sqft lot Est $117k · 40% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready 3-bedroom home with a newly enclosed front porch, offering plenty of natural light and beautiful mountain views. Spacious living room and dining room combo provides an open, inviting space for entertaining and everyday living. Perfect for outdoor enthusiasts — enjoy ATV riding right from your property, with hiking, fishing, and snowmobiling all nearby. Recent updates include new retaining walls, new bulkhead doors to the basement, and a furnace and water heater that are only 6 years old. Convenient first-floor washer and dryer add to the home’s functionality and comfort.

Key facts

• Mountain views
• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Built 1937

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• FIRST-FLOOR WASHER AND DRYER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (crushed stone)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Circuit breaker electrical service; High-speed internet available; Cable available; Telephone available
• Home design: New Englander style; Existing structure; Tan exterior color; Shingle (asphalt) roof
• Construction: Built in 1937; Wood frame construction with vinyl siding
• Exterior features: City lot on a corner parcel; Mountain views; Near trail / ATV trail; Close to schools; Paved, public, and publicly maintained road frontage (approximately 150 ft); Driveway finished with crushed stone

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heat; Hot water heating
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Basement with interior access; Basement includes bulkhead, concrete floor, and storage space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#67 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Berlin School District (town): math 24% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #91 of 98 in NH (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 95 units permitted in Coos County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Coos County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $165k implies a 978% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $162,525 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.05%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $117,438
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
407 Coos St	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,064 (+1%)	2mo	$195,000	$183	85
324 Coos St	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,088 (+3%)	10mo	$179,890	$165	83
85 Grafton St	0.29mi	3/1.0	968 (-8%)	3mo	$30,000	$31	70
579 Burgess St	0.24mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,081 (+2%)	16mo	$120,000	$111	67
630 Howland St	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,123 (+6%)	13mo	$215,000	$191	62
398 Burgess St	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,167 (+10%)	6mo	$75,000	$64	59
642 Howland St	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,206 (+14%)	4mo	$119,000	$99	56
448 Burgess St	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,123 (+6%)	19mo	$124,000	$110	52
84 Summer St	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,124 (+6%)	8mo	$110,000	$98	43
157 Ruby St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,197 (+13%)	10mo	$178,000	$149	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $97,387
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.08×
• Total profit: $280,992
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03570

• Home prices YoY: 14.3%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,631 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$237 /mo · $2,843/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,482

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $211	-5% $164	+0% $117	+5% $71	+10% $24
Rent	-10% $-11	-5% $53	+0% $117	+5% $182	+10% $246
Rate	-1.0pp $201	-0.5pp $159	base $117	+0.5pp $75	+1.0pp $31

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $165,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-05-29
    listed $165,000 Active
14. 2024-06-19
    price $165,000
15. 2024-05-02
    price $180,000
16. 2018-10-07
    price $55,900
17. 2017-06-22
    soldstatus $15,300 Closed
18. 2017-06-05
    historical Active with Contract
19. 2017-05-11
    listed $19,900 Active
20. 2011-08-15
    soldstatus $12,300
21. 2011-06-09
    listed $13,659
22. 2007-08-30
    soldstatus $55,000
23. 2007-08-29
    soldstatus $55,000
24. 2006-06-19
    listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,843 · $237/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,220 · $268/mo
• Expected delta: +$377/yr (+$31/mo · 13.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥85°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,843
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,566
• − Management: −$1,566
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$1,271
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$305
• After-tax cash flow: $1,714/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Berlin School District
• NCES district ID: 3301860
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $37,494
• Composite: 22.5/100
• National rank: #8095
• State rank: #91 of 98 in NH

Livability — Berlin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #11665

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Berlin, NH
• City population: 9,473
• Population (ZIP): 9,473

Population outlook (Coos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,912 people
• By 2030: 29,872 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 27,449 · -11.2%
• By 2050: 25,049 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 19,584 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 13,818 · -55.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 21% German 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 8% Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Coos

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 42.7% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.1pp toward R · 2008: 18.3pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+5.9 2016: R+9.1 2012: D+17.6 2008: D+18.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.16%
• Current HPI: 440.9127
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+175.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $165,000 PrimeMLS
• 2024-06-19 Price Changed $165,000 PrimeMLS
• 2024-05-02 Price Changed $180,000 PrimeMLS
• 2018-10-07 Price Changed $55,900 PrimeMLS
• 2017-06-22 Sold (MLS) $15,300 PrimeMLS
• 2017-06-05 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2017-05-11 Listed $19,900 PrimeMLS
• 2011-08-15 Sold (MLS) $12,300 PrimeMLS
• 2011-06-09 Listed $13,659 PrimeMLS
• 2007-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2007-08-29 Sold (MLS) $55,000 PrimeMLS
• 2006-06-19 Listed $59,900 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,843 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.