856 Gephart Dr W · Cumberland, MD 21502

$39,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 938 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1920 3,300 sqft lot $43/sqft · 59% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * * BRING OFFERS. CURRENTLY LISTED UNDER TAX ASSESSED VALUE * * * AS-IS. House needs a significant amount of work. Will not qualify for FHA/VA in current condition. Large rooms, original 1920s period pine flooring on upper level, fireplace. With sweat equity and time you could turn this into something nice at a price that can't be matched for a craftsman style home of this size. Bank owned.

Key facts

• Plenty of storage
• Fireplace
• 3,300 sq ft lot

Tags

• FIREPLACE
• PLENTY OF STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $804 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 32.1% vs local median 6.7% in Cumberland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#64 in MD, #2,385 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 235 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $34k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $37,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 92.32%
• DSCR: 5.11
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $97,073
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -58.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
881 Patterson Ave	0.24mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (+7%)	13mo	$33,000	$33	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 92.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.68×
• Total profit: $52,297
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 96.7%
• Equity multiple: 14.05×
• Total profit: $145,844
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21502

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 10.9%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,421 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $444/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $804

Break-even live

Break-even rent $403

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,900 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,900 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,900 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,900 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    price $39,900 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    * * * BRING OFFERS. CURRENTLY LISTED UNDER TAX ASSESSED VALUE * * * AS-IS. House needs a significant amount of work. Will not qualify for FHA/VA in current condition. Large rooms, original 1920s period pine flooring on upper level, fireplace. With sweat equity and time you could turn this into something nice at a price that can't be matched for a craftsman style home of this size. Bank owned.

16. 2026-04-04
    listed $44,900 Active 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    * * * BRING OFFERS. CURRENTLY LISTED UNDER TAX ASSESSED VALUE * * * AS-IS. House needs a significant amount of work. Will not qualify for FHA/VA in current condition. Large rooms, original 1920s period pine flooring on upper level, fireplace. With sweat equity and time you could turn this into something nice at a price that can't be matched for a craftsman style home of this size. Bank owned.

17. 2026-02-28
    historical
18. 2026-01-27
    price $47,900
19. 2026-01-09
    price $49,900
20. 2026-01-06
    status Active
21. 2025-12-31
    historical
22. 2025-12-08
    price $59,900
23. 2025-09-29
    price $69,900
24. 2025-07-28
    price $89,900
25. 2025-06-25
    price $94,900
26. 2025-06-07
    listed $99,900 Active
27. 2000-11-01
    soldstatus $34,000
28. 2000-10-31
    soldstatus $34,000
29. 2000-10-19
    historical
30. 2000-09-29
    listed $36,903
31. 1998-07-21
    historical
32. 1998-03-06
    listed
33. 1991-12-23
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $444 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $444 · $37/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,049
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$444
• − Insurance: −$866
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,364
• − Management: −$1,364
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $9,616
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,308
• After-tax cash flow: $7,340/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allegany County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400030
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $39,760
• Composite: 18.95/100
• National rank: #8854
• State rank: #18 of 24 in MD

Livability — Cumberland

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #64
• US rank: #2385

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cumberland, MD
• County: Allegany County · 41,015 people
• City population: 41,015
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 41,015
• Household income: $60,725
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,778 people
• By 2030: 66,766 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 62,784 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 59,179 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 50,732 · -26.2%
• By 2100: 40,837 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.3) · D 28.9% · R 69.2% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -25.9pp · 2024: -40.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.3 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+48.0 2012: R+32.9 2008: R+25.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.33%
• Current HPI: 258.6676
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.88%
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+166.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $39,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $44,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $47,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $49,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-06 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $59,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $69,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $89,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $94,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-07 Listed $99,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2000-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 2000-10-31 Sold (MLS) $34,000 MRIS
• 2000-10-19 Delisted — MRIS
• 2000-09-29 Listed $36,903 MRIS
• 1998-07-21 Delisted — MRIS
• 1998-03-06 Listed — MRIS
• 1991-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $444 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.