6290 Forestdale Ave · Trotwood, OH 45417

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1968 0.82 ac lot Est $152k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.82 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1968

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($269/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,014 in OH) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Trotwood-Madison City (suburban): math 9% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #645 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Trotwood-Madison Early Learning Center (416 students, 0% FRL); Trotwood-Madison Middle School (math 8% / reading 18%, grade F, #640 of 654 statewide, top 98%, 608 students, 0% FRL); Trotwood-Madison High School (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #717 of 781 statewide, top 92%, 770 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 78% district-wide (78 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 140 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($37k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $120k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $109,834 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.80%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $151,632
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6132 Mantz Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+5%)	14mo	$199,500	$135	67
6272 Mantz Ave	0.13mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,568 (+12%)	15mo	$169,900	$108	55
697 Olive Rd	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,215 (-14%)	12mo	$42,000	$35	55
6530 Hoover Ave	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,292 (-8%)	22mo	$204,000	$158	48
5939 Hoover Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+9%)	23mo	$97,000	$63	41
981 N Union Rd	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,286 (-8%)	12mo	$130,000	$101	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-16,810
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-7,731
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45417

• Home prices YoY: -32.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,098 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,992/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,070

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $90	-5% $56	+0% $22	+5% $-12	+10% $-46
Rent	-10% $-64	-5% $-21	+0% $22	+5% $66	+10% $109
Rate	-1.0pp $83	-0.5pp $53	base $22	+0.5pp $-9	+1.0pp $-40

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6229 Carmin Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	875	$995	$1.14	21d	1	0.62mi
5336 Rockport Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	925	$1,025	$1.11	45d	1	0.95mi
1427 Stuben Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	957	$900	$0.94	4d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2025-11-21
   historical
2. 2025-11-21
   historical
3. 2025-11-20
   listed $120,000
4. 2025-11-20
   listed $120,000
5. 2005-02-08
   soldstatus $80,000
6. 1997-04-15
   soldstatus $70,000
7. 1997-04-15
   soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,992 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,992 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,992
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,054
• − Management: −$1,054
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$1,734
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$416
• After-tax cash flow: $685/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trotwood-Madison City
• NCES district ID: 3904869
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,529
• Composite: 12.15/100
• National rank: #9651
• State rank: #645 of 656 in OH

Livability — Trotwood

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1014
• US rank: #20073

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trotwood, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 19,754
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 28,186
• Household income: $36,945
• Rent vs Own: 52.1% rent · 47.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1822.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 20% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.43%
• Current HPI: 193.4175
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.06%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+71.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-21 Listing Removed — WRIST
• 2025-11-21 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2025-11-20 Listed $120,000 WRIST
• 2025-11-20 Listed $120,000 Dayton MLS
• 2005-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1997-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1997-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,992 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.