1515 E 46th St · Odessa, TX 79762

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1960

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

AS IS, WHERE IS GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY. THERE WILL NOT BE ANY REPAIRS DONE ON THIS PROPERTY.

Key facts

• New ac unit
• Metal roof
• Tile floors

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• PLENTY OF STORAGE
• METAL ROOF
• NEW AC UNIT
• NEW WATER HEATER
• TILE FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ross El (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 408 students, 76% FRL); Wilson & Young Medal of Honor Middle (math 14% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 1,245 students, 56% FRL); Permian H S (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,978 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 267 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,118 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.99%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $121,056
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1500 Castle Rd	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-9%)	12mo	$110,000	$104	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-30,796
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-30,638
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79762

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,801 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,640/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,678

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $216	-5% $157	+0% $97	+5% $38	+10% $-21
Rent	-10% $-45	-5% $26	+0% $97	+5% $169	+10% $240
Rate	-1.0pp $203	-0.5pp $151	base $97	+0.5pp $43	+1.0pp $-12

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1529 E 52nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1275	$2,200	$1.73	45d	1	0.30mi
1613 E 52nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1122	$2,200	$1.96	15d	1	0.34mi
1813 Petroleum Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,700	$1.31	23d	1	0.37mi
1804 Cord St Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	960	$1,700	$1.77	45d	1	0.38mi
1311 E 52nd St Unit 1 Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,950	$1.38	23d	1	0.40mi
1119 E 51st St Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	1169	$1,500	$1.28	15d	1	0.52mi
1202 E 42nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	45d	1	0.60mi
4312 N Dixie Blvd Unit 72C Odessa, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,450	$1.48	45d	1	0.63mi
4256 Bonham Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1261	$1,600	$1.27	23d	1	0.69mi
4233 Bonham Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	45d	1	0.70mi
4217 Redbud Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.5	1203	$2,200	$1.83	15d	1	0.77mi
2220 E 52nd St Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	959	$1,770	$1.85	15d	7	0.80mi
2230 E 52nd St Unit B1 Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	972	$1,450	$1.49	23d	1	0.80mi
3624 Walnut Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1488	$1,950	$1.31	45d	1	0.82mi
5335 N Grandview Ave Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	792	$1,275	$1.61	45d	5	0.90mi
1212 E Century Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1359	$1,300	$0.96	23d	1	0.91mi
3805 Wimberley St Odessa, TX	2.0	2.0	1210	$2,800	$2.31	45d	1	1.00mi
3843 Penbrook St Odessa, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,584	$1.79	23d	17	1.01mi
3843 Penbrook St Odessa, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,584	$1.79	15d	24	1.01mi
2702 S Colonial Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1490	$1,500	$1.01	15d	1	1.10mi
3902 Englewood Cir Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	1280	$1,445	$1.13	15d	1	1.12mi
3904 Englewood Cir Odessa, TX	2.0	1.0	1280	$1,445	$1.13	15d	1	1.14mi
3907 Englewood Cir Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	1170	$1,395	$1.19	15d	1	1.15mi
3802 Englewood Cir Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	1150	$1,295	$1.13	15d	1	1.17mi
3824 Englewood Cir Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	1150	$1,295	$1.13	15d	1	1.17mi
6302 Oracle Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,700	$1.80	23d	1	1.29mi
2901 Nabors Ln Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1374	$1,800	$1.31	23d	1	1.32mi
4315 Esmond Dr Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	839	$1,550	$1.85	23d	22	1.38mi
2826 Hilltop Dr Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1307	$2,000	$1.53	15d	1	1.39mi
3727 Andrews Hwy Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	15d	18	1.41mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2015-05-22
   soldstatus
2. 2015-05-22
   soldstatus
3. 2015-05-11
   soldstatus 98-char remark

   Show marketing remark (98 chars)

   AS IS, WHERE IS GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY. THERE WILL NOT BE ANY REPAIRS DONE ON THIS PROPERTY.

4. 2015-04-15
   listed $84,900 98-char remark

   Show marketing remark (98 chars)

   AS IS, WHERE IS GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY. THERE WILL NOT BE ANY REPAIRS DONE ON THIS PROPERTY.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,640 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,843 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,203/yr (+$184/mo · 134.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,614
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$1,640
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,729
• − Management: −$1,729
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$2,407
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$578
• After-tax cash flow: $1,747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,927
• Household income: $75,272
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1477.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 38% Two or more races 22% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.97%
• Current HPI: 229.6022
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.36%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2015-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-05-11 Sold (MLS) — ODMLS
• 2015-04-15 Listed $84,900 ODMLS

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,640 · -36.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.