222 Guntown Rd · Rogersville, TN 37857

$79,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · Manufactured public records · 103 Days on market

Built 1982 0.75 ac lot $57/sqft · 67% below area ↓ 42% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rancher style with 3 brs, 1 ba, laundry, living, family, and dining rooms; kitchen and attached garage. This home needs repairs and updates. Has a great floorplan and potential. Perfect for investors or owner wanting to take on a project. All data taken from prev MLS, Tax Records or current deed. Square footage from tax records, previous mls or deed. Seller makes no representations or warranties as to property condition, buyer to inspect and verify all information. Conflicting information as to if this is a manufactured or not. It is on perm foundation either way, however, the flooring system has failed in few areas.

Key facts

• 0.75 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1982

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $549 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 2.8% in Rogersville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#168 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hawkins County (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #93 of 139 in TN (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 209 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Hawkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Hawkins County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,709 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.44%
• DSCR: 2.31
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $241,509
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -66.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
849 Tuggle Hill Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+9%)	23mo	$130,000	$86	41
781 Tuggle Hill Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+13%)	10mo	$248,000	$158	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $47,282
• Equity at exit: $38,825

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.19×
• Total profit: $116,035
• Equity at exit: $62,192

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37857

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,310 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $409/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $549

Break-even live

Break-even rent $616

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $594	-5% $571	+0% $549	+5% $526	+10% $504
Rent	-10% $445	-5% $497	+0% $549	+5% $601	+10% $652
Rate	-1.0pp $589	-0.5pp $569	base $549	+0.5pp $528	+1.0pp $507

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $79,900 Pending 103 DOM
2. 2026-05-01
   price $79,900 626-char remark

   Show marketing remark (626 chars)

   Rancher style with 3 brs, 1 ba, laundry, living, family, and dining rooms; kitchen and attached garage. This home needs repairs and updates. Has a great floorplan and potential. Perfect for investors or owner wanting to take on a project. All data taken from prev MLS, Tax Records or current deed. Square footage from tax records, previous mls or deed. Seller makes no representations or warranties as to property condition, buyer to inspect and verify all information. Conflicting information as to if this is a manufactured or not. It is on perm foundation either way, however, the flooring system has failed in few areas.

3. 2026-03-20
   price $89,900 626-char remark

   Show marketing remark (626 chars)

   Rancher style with 3 brs, 1 ba, laundry, living, family, and dining rooms; kitchen and attached garage. This home needs repairs and updates. Has a great floorplan and potential. Perfect for investors or owner wanting to take on a project. All data taken from prev MLS, Tax Records or current deed. Square footage from tax records, previous mls or deed. Seller makes no representations or warranties as to property condition, buyer to inspect and verify all information. Conflicting information as to if this is a manufactured or not. It is on perm foundation either way, however, the flooring system has failed in few areas.

4. 2026-02-14
   listed $99,900 Active 626-char remark

   Show marketing remark (626 chars)

   Rancher style with 3 brs, 1 ba, laundry, living, family, and dining rooms; kitchen and attached garage. This home needs repairs and updates. Has a great floorplan and potential. Perfect for investors or owner wanting to take on a project. All data taken from prev MLS, Tax Records or current deed. Square footage from tax records, previous mls or deed. Seller makes no representations or warranties as to property condition, buyer to inspect and verify all information. Conflicting information as to if this is a manufactured or not. It is on perm foundation either way, however, the flooring system has failed in few areas.

5. 2023-09-05
   price $137,900
6. 2023-03-16
   price $138,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $409 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $567 · $47/mo
• Expected delta: +$158/yr (+$13/mo · 38.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$409
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,258
• − Management: −$1,258
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $5,600
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,344
• After-tax cash flow: $5,242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawkins County
• NCES district ID: 4701740
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $37,555
• Composite: 20.45/100
• National rank: #8581
• State rank: #93 of 139 in TN

Livability — Rogersville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #14424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 20,425

Population outlook (Hawkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,226 people
• By 2030: 53,784 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 50,015 · -9.4%
• By 2050: 45,682 · -17.3%
• By 2075: 36,211 · -34.4%
• By 2100: 26,536 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hawkins

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.8) · D 15.2% · R 84.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.9pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -68.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.8 2020: R+65.8 2016: R+63.4 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.64%
• Current HPI: 331.2027
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-42.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $79,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $89,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $99,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2023-09-05 Price Changed $137,900 TVRMLS
• 2023-03-16 Price Changed $138,000 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $409 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.