106 Fox Squirrel Dr · Dover, TN 37058

$270,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 84 Days on market

Built 2020 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Walking distance to KY Lake! Immaculate 3 bedroom 2 bath home. Open floor plan with nice living room area with ceiling fan, spacious kitchen with eating bar and pantry. Master has large walk-in closet with master bath featuring double sinks, garden tub and separate shower. Covered front porch with ramp. Sit and relax on the 23.2x15.85 screened in back porch with 2 ceiling fans. 1 car carport and utility building stay. Home is on a permanent Foundation.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 2020

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking; Carport (1 space); 1 covered parking space (total 1 space)
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; Water available
• Home design: Residential manufactured home on land; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Crawl space foundation; Year/Model: Model
• Exterior features: Deck; Covered porch; Screened porch; Storage structure; Hilly lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Bedroom sizes: 13 x 12; 10 x 12; 10 x 12
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bathroom with double vanity
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Walk-in closets; Kitchen island
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $144 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#98 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Stewart County (rural): math 36% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #30 of 139 in TN (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dover Elementary (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #226 of 952 statewide, top 24%, 495 students, 0% FRL); Stewart Co High School (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #215 of 332 statewide, top 67%, 627 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15 units permitted in Stewart County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Stewart County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $215k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.29%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $156,103
• Equity at exit: $243,237

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.98×
• Total profit: $452,206
• Equity at exit: $524,551

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37058

• Home prices YoY: 9.3%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $784/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,017

Max offer price $270,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
132 Red Fox Dr Dover, TN	3.0	3.0	1456	$2,200	$1.51	23d	1	0.26mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $270,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $270,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $270,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $270,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $270,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-03-27
    listed $270,000 Active
16. 2026-03-26
    listed $270,000 Active 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    Walking distance to KY Lake! Immaculate 3 bedroom 2 bath home. Open floor plan with nice living room area with ceiling fan, spacious kitchen with eating bar and pantry. Master has large walk-in closet with master bath featuring double sinks, garden tub and separate shower. Covered front porch with ramp. Sit and relax on the 23.2x15.85 screened in back porch with 2 ceiling fans. 1 car carport and utility building stay. Home is on a permanent Foundation.

17. 2023-11-01
    soldstatus $215,000
18. 2023-10-31
    soldstatus $215,000 Closed 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Beautiful almost new doublewide with extremely close proximity to Kentucky Lake just a short walk from Leatherwood Resort. Three bedrooms and two full baths inside with great kitchen space. Outside you'll find two large porches, with a screened in deck on the back.

19. 2023-07-11
    listed $234,900 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Beautiful almost new doublewide with extremely close proximity to Kentucky Lake just a short walk from Leatherwood Resort. Three bedrooms and two full baths inside with great kitchen space. Outside you'll find two large porches, with a screened in deck on the back.

20. 2005-08-02
    soldstatus $59,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $784 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,917 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,133/yr (+$94/mo · 144.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$784
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$2,937
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$705
• After-tax cash flow: $2,436/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stewart County
• NCES district ID: 4703960
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,035
• Composite: 29.92/100
• National rank: #6383
• State rank: #30 of 139 in TN

Livability — Dover

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #10364

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,369

Population outlook (Stewart County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,019 people
• By 2030: 12,780 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 12,152 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 11,484 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 10,249 · -21.3%
• By 2100: 9,338 · -28.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Serbian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stewart

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.9) · D 17.5% · R 81.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -55.1pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -63.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.9 2020: R+59.0 2016: R+50.0 2012: R+17.5 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.47%
• Current HPI: 286.5122
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+353.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $270,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Listed $270,000 TVAR
• 2023-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2023-10-31 Sold (MLS) $215,000 TVAR
• 2023-07-11 Listed $234,900 TVAR
• 2005-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $59,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $784 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.