18 Oak Ln · Lake, PA 18436

$219,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1983 0.53 ac lot $238/sqft · 17% above area Est $283k · 22% under $150/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Pocono retreat! 18 Oak Ln offers peaceful surroundings and easy access to lakes and outdoor fun. Perfect as a full-time home, weekend escape or investment opportunity.

Key facts

• Outdoor fun
• Easy access to lakes
• 0.53 acre lot

Tags

• PEACEFUL SURROUNDINGS
• EASY ACCESS TO LAKES
• OUTDOOR FUN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-488 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (39.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (39.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Western Wayne SD (rural): math 39% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #165 of 539 in PA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 340 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $164k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $314/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,663 (39.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.40%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,131
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: -22.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
163 Lake Rd	0.23mi	2/1.0	1,019 (+10%)	22mo	$275,000	$270	49
345 Chestnuthill Dr	0.59mi	2/2.0	952 (+3%)	24mo	$228,500	$240	48
82 Ridge Rd	0.36mi	2/1.0	1,012 (+10%)	21mo	$266,400	$263	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $88,951
• Equity at exit: $198,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.66×
• Total profit: $286,950
• Equity at exit: $427,217

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18436

• Home prices YoY: 16.9%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,824 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,645/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$314 /mo · $3,765/yr
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $-488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,442

Max offer price $133,663

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-364	-5% $-426	+0% $-488	+5% $-550	+10% $-613
Rent	-10% $-632	-5% $-560	+0% $-488	+5% $-416	+10% $-344
Rate	-1.0pp $-377	-0.5pp $-432	base $-488	+0.5pp $-545	+1.0pp $-603

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,900 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,900 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,900 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $219,900 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,900 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $219,900 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    status Pending 176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (176 chars)

    Charming Pocono retreat! 18 Oak Ln offers peaceful surroundings and easy access to lakes and outdoor fun. Perfect as a full-time home, weekend escape or investment opportunity.

18. 2026-04-15
    listed $219,900 Active 176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (176 chars)

    Charming Pocono retreat! 18 Oak Ln offers peaceful surroundings and easy access to lakes and outdoor fun. Perfect as a full-time home, weekend escape or investment opportunity.

19. 2022-07-06
    soldstatus $164,000
20. 2022-06-30
    soldstatus 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    PRIVATE LAKE HOME - $169,900- 2 bedroom, 2 bath perfect sportsman's getaway nestled on private wooded parcel adjoining 540 acre lake preserve. Living room with energy efficient fireplace, kitchen with appliances, separate dining area, screened porch, entertainment decks and garage. Hunt, fish, swim, shooting range, clubhouse and more.

21. 2022-06-30
    soldstatus $166,000

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    PRIVATE LAKE HOME - $169,900- 2 bedroom, 2 bath perfect sportsman's getaway nestled on private wooded parcel adjoining 540 acre lake preserve. Living room with energy efficient fireplace, kitchen with appliances, separate dining area, screened porch, entertainment decks and garage. Hunt, fish, swim, shooting range, clubhouse and more.

22. 2022-04-16
    listed $169,900 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    PRIVATE LAKE HOME - $169,900- 2 bedroom, 2 bath perfect sportsman's getaway nestled on private wooded parcel adjoining 540 acre lake preserve. Living room with energy efficient fireplace, kitchen with appliances, separate dining area, screened porch, entertainment decks and garage. Hunt, fish, swim, shooting range, clubhouse and more.

23. 2022-04-16
    listed $169,900

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    PRIVATE LAKE HOME - $169,900- 2 bedroom, 2 bath perfect sportsman's getaway nestled on private wooded parcel adjoining 540 acre lake preserve. Living room with energy efficient fireplace, kitchen with appliances, separate dining area, screened porch, entertainment decks and garage. Hunt, fish, swim, shooting range, clubhouse and more.

24. 2003-09-18
    soldstatus $100,000
25. 2002-09-12
    soldstatus $85,000
26. 2001-04-20
    soldstatus $100,500
27. 1987-09-24
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,645 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,060 · $255/mo
• Expected delta: +$415/yr (+$35/mo · 15.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,885
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$2,645
• − Insurance: −$4,864
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,751
• − Management: −$1,751
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$9,641
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,314
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Western Wayne SD
• NCES district ID: 4226070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,358
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2964
• State rank: #165 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,225

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.95%
• Current HPI: 331.9645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+388.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-15 Listed $219,900 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2022-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $164,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-30 Sold (MLS) $166,000 PWMLS
• 2022-06-30 Sold (MLS) — PWMLS
• 2022-04-16 Listed $169,900 PWMLS
• 2022-04-16 Listed $169,900 PWMLS
• 2003-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2002-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2001-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $100,500 Public Records
• 1987-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,645 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.