4871 Fells Cove Ave · Orlando, FL 34744

$435,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,603 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2005 0.34 ac lot Est $794k · 45% under $53/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Just minutes from the lively Lake Nona area, 4871 FELLS COVE AVE puts top-rated schools, premier attractions, Orlando International Airport, and Medical City all within easy reach. This 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom home sits in the sought-after Fells Cove community, where generous spacing between properties means real privacy. Inside, the single-story layout centers on a spacious master suite with its own private bath. Add in a low HOA, and it's a rare find. Schedule your viewing today and see it for yourself.

Key facts

• Premier attractions
• Medical city
• Fells cove community

Tags

• LAKE NONA AREA
• TOP-RATED SCHOOLS
• PREMIER ATTRACTIONS
• ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
• MEDICAL CITY
• FELLS COVE COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential zoning (RS-1)
• Financial info: Total annual fees $636
• HOA & community: Fells Cove homeowners association; Monthly HOA fee $53 (required); Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on 0.34-acre lot
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $435k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-566/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $427k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $379k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $379k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.0% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 563 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,790/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 2462% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($428k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $379,030 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.47%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $793,915
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3146 Twisted Oak Loop	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,561 (-2%)	7mo	$595,000	$232	88
3162 Harvest Ln	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,426 (-7%)	5mo	$615,000	$254	71
4834 Lakes Edge Ln	0.07mi	4/2.0	2,222 (-15%)	5mo	$489,000	$220	64
10036 Fiddley Aly	0.62mi	4/3.5	2,728 (+5%)	4mo	$856,900	$314	58
10024 Dulbecco St	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,440 (-6%)	4mo	$895,025	$367	55
10073 Ballast Dr	0.62mi	4/3.5	2,444 (-6%)	6mo	$1,070,668	$438	54
9602 Rodbell St	0.70mi	4/3.5	2,367 (-9%)	3mo	$737,117	$311	48
10007 Gobat Aly	0.63mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,758 (+6%)	6mo	$795,000	$288	47
10172 Pearson Ave	0.56mi	4/3.5	2,247 (-14%)	5mo	$659,990	$294	45
9674 Rodbell St	0.56mi	4/3.5	2,247 (-14%)	6mo	$657,000	$292	44
9883 Peebles St	0.68mi	4/3.5	2,247 (-14%)	1mo	$693,990	$309	43
10239 Dulbecco St	0.57mi	5/4.5 (+1)	2,952 (+13%)	2mo	$900,000	$305	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-84,524
• Equity at exit: $64,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-120,080
• Equity at exit: $37,611

Cash invested: $121,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34744

• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 563
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,790 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax from tax record: −$526 /mo · $6,313/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$53
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$796
• Net cashflow: $-47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,850

Max offer price $426,662

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $199	-5% $76	+0% $-47	+5% $-170	+10% $-293
Rent	-10% $-347	-5% $-197	+0% $-47	+5% $103	+10% $252
Rate	-1.0pp $172	-0.5pp $63	base $-47	+0.5pp $-160	+1.0pp $-275

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,750
• Closing costs: $13,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18435 Mowry Ct Orlando, FL	5.0	3.5	3632	$4,595	$1.27	25d	1	0.15mi
19244 Allium Pl Orlando, FL	4.0	4.0	2688	$3,850	$1.43	25d	1	0.48mi
10205 Pearson Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1788	$3,800	$2.13	20d	1	0.52mi
9922 Rodbell St Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1987	$3,450	$1.74	14d	1	0.53mi
13823 Tybee Beach Ln Orlando, FL	5.0	3.5	2951	$4,500	$1.52	25d	1	0.53mi
10374 Pearson Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$3,550	$1.99	2d	1	0.54mi
10382 Marconi Ave Orlando, FL	4.0	3.5	2100	$4,000	$1.90	15d	1	0.56mi
19071 Blueleaf St Orlando, FL	5.0	4.0	3294	$6,890	$2.09	5d	1	0.56mi
9726 Neruda St Orlando, FL	4.0	3.0	2825	$4,900	$1.73	25d	1	0.60mi
13114 McMillan Dr Orlando, FL	4.0	3.0	2301	$4,850	$2.11	8d	1	0.67mi
14822 Fells Ln Unit 1546134P Orlando, FL	4.0	2.0	2594	$4,994	$1.93	15d	1	0.69mi
14310 Sapelo Beach Dr Orlando, FL	4.0	3.0	1858	$3,300	$1.78	25d	1	0.76mi
14286 Sapelo Beach Dr Orlando, FL	4.0	3.0	1809	$2,900	$1.60	3d	1	0.77mi
14367 Sapelo Beach Dr Orlando, FL	4.0	3.0	1809	$2,950	$1.63	13d	1	0.77mi
14238 Sapelo Beach Dr Orlando, FL	4.0	3.0	1809	$2,799	$1.55	21d	1	0.79mi
14327 Sapelo Beach Dr Orlando, FL	4.0	3.0	1809	$3,050	$1.69	21d	1	0.79mi
13321 Camborne Pl Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1920	$3,195	$1.66	25d	1	0.92mi
13244 Winterton Ln Orlando, FL	5.0	4.5	2958	$4,300	$1.45	18d	1	0.95mi
13647 Larkton Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	3.5	2310	$3,500	$1.52	18d	1	1.00mi
2964 Slough Creek Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	2341	$2,750	$1.17	25d	1	1.13mi
10264 Henbury St Orlando, FL	4.0	3.5	2376	$4,500	$1.89	25d	1	1.22mi
14279 Swanley St Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1780	$2,650	$1.49	25d	1	1.24mi
13079 Stanthorne Ave Orlando, FL	5.0	4.0	3339	$4,300	$1.29	17d	1	1.24mi
9799 Winnington St Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1816	$3,100	$1.71	25d	1	1.29mi
8664 Dubochet St Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	2098	$3,650	$1.74	5d	1	1.31mi
4475 Biscayne Breeze Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2251	$3,100	$1.38	25d	1	1.31mi
13130 Woodford St Orlando, FL	5.0	3.5	2673	$3,500	$1.31	15d	1	1.38mi
10466 Stapeley Dr Orlando, FL	4.0	3.0	2202	$3,200	$1.45	25d	1	1.39mi
8553 Dubochet St Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	2844	$3,250	$1.14	25d	1	1.41mi
14225 Walcott Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1819	$3,000	$1.65	3d	1	1.42mi
14236 Walcott Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1848	$2,900	$1.57	25d	1	1.43mi
2772 Mead Ave Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	2144	$2,449	$1.14	15d	1	1.44mi
4403 Biscayne Breeze Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1941	$2,121	$1.09	23d	1	1.45mi
2673 Tahoe Ter Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	2150	$2,400	$1.12	25d	1	1.47mi
8202 Bellow St Orlando, FL	4.0	3.5	2714	$4,200	$1.55	5d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $53 · $636/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $435,000 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $435,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $435,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $435,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $435,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $435,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $435,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $435,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $435,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $435,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    remarks 508-char remark
12. 2026-06-04
    listed $435,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,313 · $526/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,313 · $526/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,367
• − Property taxes: −$6,313
• − Insurance: −$2,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,639
• − Management: −$3,639
• − HOA: −$636
• − Depreciation: −$12,655
• Taxable loss: −$7,939
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,905
• After-tax cash flow: $1,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — Orlando

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #360

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Osceola County · 410,217 people
• City population: 964,969
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 66,582
• Household income: $74,537
• Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2462.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 23% White 21% Black 8% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 32% Cuban 4% Dominican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 40% English-only · Spanish 53% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.17%
• Current HPI: 277.404
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.54%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-13.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $435,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-24 Listed $501,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,313 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.