411 Citrus Ridge Dr · Nocatee, FL 32081

$525,000

9 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,111 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 2015 5,662 sqft lot $249/sqft · 16% below area Est $623k · 16% under $42/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy the Nocatee lifestyle & save $ - 2.25% VA assumable loan & low $498/year HOA fee. This 2,100 SF 3/2 includes an office or 4th bedroom. Open layout flows between the kitchen, dining, and living areas. Expanded kitchen cabinetry + pantry & huge island opens to living room & fenced backyard & covered lanai. Living in Nocatee means access to world-class amenities - Splash/Spray Water Parks, fitness centers, parks, walking/biking trails, dog parks & a vibrant calendar of community events. Whether it's paddleboarding, yoga in the park or food truck Fridays, there's always something to enjoy just minutes from your front door. Location is just a short walk to Valley Ridge Academy K-8, quick drive to the beach, shopping, dining, and major roadways. If you've been searching for a home that combines lifestyle, location & top-tier amenities, this home delivers it all. Seller will consider flooring allowance with acceptable offer.

Key facts

• Huge island
• Covered lanai
• Expanded cabinetry

Tags

• EXPANDED CABINETRY
• HUGE ISLAND
• FENCED BACKYARD
• COVERED LANAI
• WORLD-CLASS AMENITIES
• SPLASH SPRAY WATER PARKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 9-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $525k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (46.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (43.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (46.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 2.5% in Nocatee — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Valley Ridge Academy (math 87% / reading 81%, grade A+, #55 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 1,306 students, 14% FRL); Allen D Nease Senior High School (math 72% / reading 78%, grade A-, #40 of 667 statewide, top 6%, 2,214 students, 4% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 644 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $-3k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($494k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 17% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $308k; list at $525k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $279,779 (46.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.33%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $622,795
• List price: $525,000
• Delta: -15.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.49% appreciation · 1.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-121,068
• Equity at exit: $139,733

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-184,729
• Equity at exit: $158,130

Cash invested: $147,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32081

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 644
• Price-to-rent: 14.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,951 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax from tax record: −$705 /mo · $8,463/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-1,388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,708

Max offer price $279,779

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,091	-5% $-1,240	+0% $-1,388	+5% $-1,537	+10% $-1,685
Rent	-10% $-1,621	-5% $-1,505	+0% $-1,388	+5% $-1,272	+10% $-1,155
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,124	-0.5pp $-1,255	base $-1,388	+0.5pp $-1,524	+1.0pp $-1,663

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,250
• Closing costs: $15,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: watergym

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $525,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $525,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $525,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $525,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $525,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $525,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $525,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $525,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $525,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $535,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $535,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $535,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $535,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $535,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    remarks 695-char remark
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $535,000 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-04-27
    price $535,000 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    Enjoy the Nocatee lifestyle & save $ - 2.25% VA assumable loan & low $498/year HOA fee. This 2,100 SF 3/2 includes an office or 4th bedroom. Open layout flows between the kitchen, dining, and living areas. Expanded kitchen cabinetry + pantry & huge island opens to living room & fenced backyard & covered lanai. Living in Nocatee means access to world-class amenities - Splash/Spray Water Parks, fitness centers, parks, walking/biking trails, dog parks & a vibrant calendar of community events. Whether it's paddleboarding, yoga in the park or food truck Fridays, there's always something to enjoy just minutes from your front door. Location is just a short walk to Valley Ridge Academy K-8, quick drive to the beach, shopping, dining, and major roadways. If you've been searching for a home that combines lifestyle, location & top-tier amenities, this home delivers it all. Seller will consider flooring allowance with acceptable offer.

18. 2026-03-27
    price $540,000 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    Enjoy the Nocatee lifestyle & save $ - 2.25% VA assumable loan & low $498/year HOA fee. This 2,100 SF 3/2 includes an office or 4th bedroom. Open layout flows between the kitchen, dining, and living areas. Expanded kitchen cabinetry + pantry & huge island opens to living room & fenced backyard & covered lanai. Living in Nocatee means access to world-class amenities - Splash/Spray Water Parks, fitness centers, parks, walking/biking trails, dog parks & a vibrant calendar of community events. Whether it's paddleboarding, yoga in the park or food truck Fridays, there's always something to enjoy just minutes from your front door. Location is just a short walk to Valley Ridge Academy K-8, quick drive to the beach, shopping, dining, and major roadways. If you've been searching for a home that combines lifestyle, location & top-tier amenities, this home delivers it all. Seller will consider flooring allowance with acceptable offer.

19. 2026-03-27
    listed $450,000 Active 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    Enjoy the Nocatee lifestyle & save $ - 2.25% VA assumable loan & low $498/year HOA fee. This 2,100 SF 3/2 includes an office or 4th bedroom. Open layout flows between the kitchen, dining, and living areas. Expanded kitchen cabinetry + pantry & huge island opens to living room & fenced backyard & covered lanai. Living in Nocatee means access to world-class amenities - Splash/Spray Water Parks, fitness centers, parks, walking/biking trails, dog parks & a vibrant calendar of community events. Whether it's paddleboarding, yoga in the park or food truck Fridays, there's always something to enjoy just minutes from your front door. Location is just a short walk to Valley Ridge Academy K-8, quick drive to the beach, shopping, dining, and major roadways. If you've been searching for a home that combines lifestyle, location & top-tier amenities, this home delivers it all. Seller will consider flooring allowance with acceptable offer.

20. 2016-02-25
    soldstatus $308,170 Sold
21. 2015-08-18
    listed $284,354
22. 2015-08-18
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,463 · $705/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,463 · $705/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,407
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,408
• − Property taxes: −$8,463
• − Insurance: −$2,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,833
• − Management: −$2,833
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$15,273
• Taxable loss: −$26,530
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,367
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,290/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Nocatee

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #7550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nocatee, FL
• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• City population: 27,365
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,784
• Household income: $131,624
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 729.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Current HPI: 145.8421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.13%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+88.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $535,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $540,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $450,000 realMLS
• 2016-02-25 Sold (MLS) $308,170 realMLS
• 2015-08-18 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2015-08-18 Listed $284,354 realMLS

Property tax history

+12.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,463 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.