210 Mockingbird Ln · La Villa, TX 78538

$144,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,290 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2005 7,836 sqft lot Est $168k · 14% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Located near downtown Elsa and in close proximity to H-E-B and local dining options, this solid brick home offers approximately 1,300 living square feet with a 2-car garage and slab foundation. Solar panels are installed, adding long-term energy efficiency potential. Home does need some TLC, making it a great opportunity for buyers looking to build equity. County appraisal reflects $178,000

Key facts

• 7,836 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($212/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#591 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• La Villa ISD (suburban): math 11% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #815 of 826 in TX (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jose Bernabe Munoz El (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 243 students, 96% FRL); La Villa Middle (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,646 of 1,662 statewide, top 99%, 141 students, 93% FRL); La Villa Early College H S (math 5% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,415 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 182 students, 92% FRL).
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,726 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.52%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $167,700
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1307 Canary Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+13%)	13mo	$189,000	$130	65
417 N Cottonwood Ave N	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,357 (+5%)	23mo	$49,999	$37	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.8% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $59,168
• Equity at exit: $108,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.22×
• Total profit: $171,143
• Equity at exit: $212,850

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78538

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$426 /mo · $5,113/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,578

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $100	-5% $59	+0% $18	+5% $-23	+10% $-64
Rent	-10% $-109	-5% $-46	+0% $18	+5% $81	+10% $144
Rate	-1.0pp $91	-0.5pp $54	base $18	+0.5pp $-20	+1.0pp $-58

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
112 Msg Mario A Solis Ln La Villa, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$1,600	$0.86	14d	1	0.04mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   historical Option
3. 2026-04-02
   listed $144,900 Active
4. 2026-03-30
   price $149,900
5. 2026-03-15
   price $154,900
6. 2026-03-04
   listed $155,000 Active
7. 2006-04-04
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,113 · $426/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,113 · $426/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$5,113
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable loss: −$2,042
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$490
• After-tax cash flow: $702/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Villa ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826340
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $30,876
• Composite: 12.32/100
• National rank: #9641
• State rank: #815 of 826 in TX

Livability — La Villa

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #591
• US rank: #11264

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Villa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,740

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 98% Two or more races 58% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 96%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 9% English-only · Spanish 90% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.80%
• Current HPI: 244.519
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-04-07 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $144,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $149,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $154,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $155,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2006-04-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,113 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.