13 Hillcrest Ct · Ogallala, NE 69153

$7,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1986

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Great deal for the right person that has the time to get in there and start working on it.

Key facts

• Built 1986
• Listed 37 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $8k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $8k).
• Recommended offer: $7k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#223 in NE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Ogallala Public Schools (town): math 45% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #78 of 111 in NE (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Keith County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $802 of equity ($52 loan paydown + $750 appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Keith County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $2k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($7k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $7,275 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 26.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 248.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 863.41%
• DSCR: 39.42
• GRM: 0.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 48.78×
• Total profit: $100,347
• Equity at exit: $6,757

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 105.71×
• Total profit: $219,882
• Equity at exit: $14,571

Cash invested: $2,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 69153

• Home prices YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 0.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,974 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$39
• Tax from tax record: −$6 /mo · $73/yr
• Insurance: −$3
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $1,511

Break-even live

Break-even rent $61

Max offer price $7,500

Occupancy floor 18%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,875
• Closing costs: $225
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $7,500 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $7,500 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $7,500 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $7,500 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $7,500 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $7,500 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $7,500 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $7,500 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $7,500 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $7,500 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $7,500 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $7,500 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $7,500 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $7,500 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $7,500 Active 90-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $73 · $6/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $130 · $11/mo
• Expected delta: +$57/yr (+$5/mo · 78.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,688
• − Mortgage interest: −$420
• − Property taxes: −$73
• − Insurance: −$38
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,895
• − Management: −$1,895
• − Depreciation: −$218
• Taxable income: $19,150
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,596
• After-tax cash flow: $13,536/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ogallala Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3174760
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,347
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3934
• State rank: #78 of 111 in NE

Livability — Ogallala

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #223
• US rank: #7929

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ogallala, NE
• Population (ZIP): 5,968

Population outlook (Keith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,706 people
• By 2030: 7,508 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 7,139 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 6,916 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 6,810 · -11.6%
• By 2100: 6,635 · -13.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Keith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.9) · D 17.4% · R 81.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -49.6pp · 2024: -63.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.9 2020: R+63.7 2016: R+67.0 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.15%
• Current HPI: 321.546
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $7,500 FSBO.com

Property tax history

-13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $73 · +45.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.