3005 Walnut Bend Ln #12 · Houston, TX 77042

$69,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 742 sqft · Condo public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1979 $93/sqft · 25% below area Est $92k · 25% under $302/mo HOA · 32% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming West Houston condo now available! This 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom first-floor residence offers convenient access to Beltway 8, Westpark Tollway, the Galleria, and the Energy Corridor, placing shopping, dining, and entertainment just minutes away. Located in a gated community, the home features tile flooring throughout, a spacious bedroom with both a walk-in closet and an additional closet, plus a private covered patio. Refrigerator, washer and dryer convey with the unit, along with an assigned parking space. A great opportunity for a new owner to add personal touches and make it their own!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Walk-in closet
• Tile flooring

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• TILE FLOORING
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE COVERED PATIO
• ASSIGNED PARKING SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $49k (29.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($947 rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Alief ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #717 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Outley El (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #2,429 of 4,322 statewide, top 57%, 829 students, 84% FRL); O'Donnell Middle (math 32% / reading 33%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 1,230 students, 89% FRL); Alief Isd J J A E P (13 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 249 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask is 7567% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; HOA is 32% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,010 (29.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
10. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
11. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.03%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $91,902
• List price: $69,000
• Delta: -24.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-20,914
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: -97.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.93×
• Total profit: $-37,202
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77042

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 249
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $947 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,027/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$302
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $-113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,091

Max offer price $49,010

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-74	-5% $-94	+0% $-113	+5% $-133	+10% $-152
Rent	-10% $-188	-5% $-151	+0% $-113	+5% $-76	+10% $-38
Rate	-1.0pp $-78	-0.5pp $-96	base $-113	+0.5pp $-131	+1.0pp $-149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10901 Meadowglen Ln Apt 311 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	531	$649	$1.22	0d	1	0.15mi
10901 Meadowglen Ln Unit 163A Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	531	$749	$1.41	17d	1	0.15mi
10901 Meadowglen Ln Unit 236A Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	661	$874	$1.32	26d	1	0.15mi
10901 Meadowglen Ln Unit 229 Houston, TX	1.0	1.5	661	$825	$1.25	24d	1	0.15mi
10901 Meadowglen Ln Unit 270A Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	661	$799	$1.21	24d	1	0.15mi
10751 Meadowglen Ln Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	763	$1,229	$1.61	0d	19	0.16mi
10936 Meadowglen Ln Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	862	$940	$1.09	3d	36	0.16mi
2801 Walnut Bend Ln Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	566	$884	$1.56	0d	6	0.21mi
2801 Walnut Bend Ln Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	741	$849	$1.15	26d	1	0.21mi
2750 Wallingford Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	714	$666	$0.93	0d	49	0.24mi
2851 Wallingford Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	927	$749	$0.81	0d	32	0.25mi
10615 Meadowglen Ln Unit 10666 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	505	$850	$1.68	45d	1	0.26mi
10615 Meadowglen Ln Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	505	$820	$1.62	9d	1	0.26mi
10615 Meadowglen Ln Unit 10636 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	505	$855	$1.69	14d	1	0.26mi
10615 Meadowglen Ln Unit 10636 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	505	$809	$1.60	0d	1	0.26mi
10887 Richmond Ave Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	570	$917	$1.61	26d	1	0.27mi
10615 Meadowglen Ln Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	505	$809	$1.60	14d	1	0.28mi
10881 Richmond Ave Unit 212 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	570	$935	$1.64	45d	1	0.33mi
10881 Richmond Ave Unit 206 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	570	$900	$1.58	45d	1	0.33mi
10881 Richmond Ave Unit 1504 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	510	$775	$1.52	45d	1	0.33mi
10881 Richmond Ave Unit 1501 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	510	$815	$1.60	45d	1	0.33mi
10881 Richmond Ave Unit 10955 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	510	$749	$1.47	0d	1	0.33mi
10881 Richmond Ave Unit 10932 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	510	$749	$1.47	14d	1	0.33mi
10881 Richmond Ave Unit 10955 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	510	$795	$1.56	14d	1	0.33mi
2800 Wilcrest Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	723	$1,045	$1.45	26d	1	0.33mi
10777 Richmond Ave Unit 10798 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	625	$1,306	$2.09	14d	1	0.33mi
10777 Richmond Ave Unit 10798 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	625	$1,311	$2.10	14d	1	0.33mi
2756 Wallingford Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	634	$907	$1.43	13d	1	0.34mi
2756 Wallingford Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	634	$907	$1.43	18d	1	0.34mi
10777 Richmond Ave Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,249	$1.28	0d	20	0.35mi
10777 Richmond Ave Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	625	$1,260	$2.02	14d	1	0.35mi
3411 Walnut Bend Ln Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$965	$1.00	0d	13	0.35mi
3131 Hayes Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	831	$720	$0.87	21d	16	0.46mi
2909 Hayes Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	973	$755	$0.78	0d	19	0.51mi
3354 Rogerdale Rd Unit 325 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	692	$979	$1.41	0d	1	0.54mi
3354 Rogerdale Rd Unit 3405 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	692	$1,029	$1.49	12d	1	0.54mi
3354 Rogerdale Rd Apt 321 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	692	$990	$1.43	9d	1	0.54mi
2525 CityWest Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1258	$1,360	$1.08	1d	24	0.62mi
2828 Hayes Rd Unit 2879 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	675	$1,064	$1.58	45d	1	0.63mi
11212 Westpark Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1129	$990	$0.88	0d	28	0.66mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $302 · $3,624/yr
• Likely covers: securityparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,000 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,000 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,000 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,000 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,000 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,000 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,000 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,000 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,000 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,000 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 91 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    listed $900
16. 2026-04-09
    price $69,000 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    Charming West Houston condo now available! This 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom first-floor residence offers convenient access to Beltway 8, Westpark Tollway, the Galleria, and the Energy Corridor, placing shopping, dining, and entertainment just minutes away. Located in a gated community, the home features tile flooring throughout, a spacious bedroom with both a walk-in closet and an additional closet, plus a private covered patio. Refrigerator, washer and dryer convey with the unit, along with an assigned parking space. A great opportunity for a new owner to add personal touches and make it their own!

17. 2026-03-01
    listed $72,500 Active 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    Charming West Houston condo now available! This 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom first-floor residence offers convenient access to Beltway 8, Westpark Tollway, the Galleria, and the Energy Corridor, placing shopping, dining, and entertainment just minutes away. Located in a gated community, the home features tile flooring throughout, a spacious bedroom with both a walk-in closet and an additional closet, plus a private covered patio. Refrigerator, washer and dryer convey with the unit, along with an assigned parking space. A great opportunity for a new owner to add personal touches and make it their own!

18. 2025-12-31
    historical
19. 2025-12-12
    price $79,000
20. 2025-09-29
    price $82,000
21. 2025-09-12
    listed $88,900 Active
22. 2015-07-27
    historical
23. 2015-07-24
    soldstatus Sold
24. 2015-07-18
    status Pending
25. 2015-07-08
    status Option Pending
26. 2015-06-01
    listed $39,900 Active
27. 2014-11-13
    historical
28. 2014-11-07
    listed $47,900 Active
29. 2009-07-10
    soldstatus
30. 2006-05-03
    soldstatus
31. 2001-05-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,027 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,027 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,367
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$2,027
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$909
• − Management: −$909
• − HOA: −$3,624
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable loss: −$2,320
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$557
• After-tax cash flow: $-801/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alief ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807830
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,775
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8391
• State rank: #717 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,721
• Household income: $59,097
• Rent vs Own: 73.7% rent · 26.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3994.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 36% White 31% Black 24% Two or more races 18% Asian 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 31% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -234.36%
• Current HPI: 215.9671
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+44.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed for Rent $900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $69,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-01 Listed $72,500 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $79,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $82,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $88,900 HARMLS
• 2015-07-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-07-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-07-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-07-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-06-01 Listed $39,900 HARMLS
• 2014-11-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-11-07 Listed $47,900 HARMLS
• 2009-07-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-05-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-05-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,027 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.