195 Filly Rd · Gilmer, TX 75645

$199,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,304 sqft · Manufactured public records · 204 Days on market

Built 2007 0.91 ac lot ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bath home set on approximately . 91 acres in the highly regarded Union Grove ISD. This property offers a comfortable layout with a generous living room designed for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen provides ample counter space and storage, opening to a large dining area that makes everyday meals and gatherings convenient. The primary bedroom is notably spacious, paired with an oversized bathroom featuring plenty of room for daily routines. Additional bedrooms offer flexible space for guests, home office needs, or hobbies. Outside, the nearly one acre lot provides room to enjoy the outdoors, create a garden, or simply take advantage of the extra space. This property combines comfort, functionality, and desirable location and is ready for its next owner to make it their own.

Key facts

• 0.91 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2007

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($825/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.9% in Gilmer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,257 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Union Grove ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #117 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 181 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,429 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.48%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $112,710
• Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.89×
• Total profit: $328,370
• Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75645

• Home prices YoY: 12.7%
• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,674 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,529/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,587

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 204 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 203 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 202 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 201 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 200 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 199 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,000 Active 198 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 195 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 194 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 193 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 192 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 189 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 188 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 187 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 186 DOM
16. 2026-04-13
    listed $199,000 Active 825-char remark

    Show marketing remark (825 chars)

    Welcome to the spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bath home set on approximately . 91 acres in the highly regarded Union Grove ISD. This property offers a comfortable layout with a generous living room designed for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen provides ample counter space and storage, opening to a large dining area that makes everyday meals and gatherings convenient. The primary bedroom is notably spacious, paired with an oversized bathroom featuring plenty of room for daily routines. Additional bedrooms offer flexible space for guests, home office needs, or hobbies. Outside, the nearly one acre lot provides room to enjoy the outdoors, create a garden, or simply take advantage of the extra space. This property combines comfort, functionality, and desirable location and is ready for its next owner to make it their own.

17. 2026-03-05
    price $199,000 828-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bath home set on approximately . 91 acres in the highly regarded Union Grove ISD. This property offers a comfortable layout with a generous living room designed for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen provides ample counter space and storage, opening to a large dining area that makes everyday meals and gatherings convenient. The primary bedroom is notably spacious, paired with an oversized bathroom featuring plenty of room for daily routines. Additional bedrooms offer flexible space for guests, home office needs, or hobbies. Outside, the nearly one acre lot provides room to enjoy the outdoors, create a garden, or simply take advantage of the extra space. This property combines comfort, functionality, and a desirable location and is ready for its next owner to make it their own.

18. 2025-11-25
    listed $214,000 Active 828-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bath home set on approximately . 91 acres in the highly regarded Union Grove ISD. This property offers a comfortable layout with a generous living room designed for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen provides ample counter space and storage, opening to a large dining area that makes everyday meals and gatherings convenient. The primary bedroom is notably spacious, paired with an oversized bathroom featuring plenty of room for daily routines. Additional bedrooms offer flexible space for guests, home office needs, or hobbies. Outside, the nearly one acre lot provides room to enjoy the outdoors, create a garden, or simply take advantage of the extra space. This property combines comfort, functionality, and a desirable location and is ready for its next owner to make it their own.

19. 2018-04-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,529 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,112/yr (+$176/mo · 138.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,091
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,529
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,607
• − Management: −$1,607
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,584
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$620
• After-tax cash flow: $1,445/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union Grove ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843530
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $61,597
• Composite: 46.4/100
• National rank: #2458
• State rank: #117 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gilmer

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1257
• US rank: #21903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,511

Population outlook (Upshur County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,771 people
• By 2030: 43,788 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 45,574 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 46,683 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 49,137 · +14.9%
• By 2100: 47,457 · +11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Upshur

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.2% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+68.5 2016: R+68.0 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 35.93%
• Current HPI: 319.83
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $199,000 GTAR
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $199,000 LAAR
• 2025-11-25 Listed $214,000 LAAR
• 2018-04-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+17.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,529 · -5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.