11720 Thousand Trl #35 · Conroe, TX 77318

$134,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Manufactured · 66 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous Lake community nestled on Lake Conroe. Have you ever wanted your own Air BnB or vacation home? This home comes fully furnished with all new furnishings. Kitchen is fully stocked with dishes and pots and pans for the weekend get away. Pack your clothes and come on down. Brand new Washer and dryer included. Enclosed patio with TV for those lazy summer days. Nice storage off carport. Corner Lot. 2 bedroom, 2 bath home ready for its new owner. This community is part of the Thousand Trails resort community. Lake access, boat ramps, small private beach, dog park, basketball courts, tennis courts, miniature golf, huge playground. Olympic size pool with hot tub. Small boat or vehicle wash pad, all inclusive. Separate washateria as well. Do you have family that has RV's have them bring it on down for their visit. RV sites and small cabins available for rent in the park.

Key facts

• Dog park
• Private beach
• Lake access

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED
• ENCLOSED PATIO
• CORNER LOT
• LAKE ACCESS
• PRIVATE BEACH
• DOG PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $134k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $264 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $134k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $926 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,960 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.43%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-9,314
• Equity at exit: $19,980

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,454
• Equity at exit: $11,586

Cash invested: $37,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,506 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$703
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$168 /mo · $2,010/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,172

Max offer price $134,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $356	-5% $310	+0% $264	+5% $217	+10% $171
Rent	-10% $145	-5% $204	+0% $264	+5% $323	+10% $383
Rate	-1.0pp $331	-0.5pp $298	base $264	+0.5pp $229	+1.0pp $194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,500
• Closing costs: $4,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11700 League Line Rd Conroe, TX	1.0–2.0	2.0	809	$1,195	$1.48	6d	6	1.17mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $134,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $134,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-04-10
    listed $134,000 Active 882-char remark

    Show marketing remark (882 chars)

    Gorgeous Lake community nestled on Lake Conroe. Have you ever wanted your own Air BnB or vacation home? This home comes fully furnished with all new furnishings. Kitchen is fully stocked with dishes and pots and pans for the weekend get away. Pack your clothes and come on down. Brand new Washer and dryer included. Enclosed patio with TV for those lazy summer days. Nice storage off carport. Corner Lot. 2 bedroom, 2 bath home ready for its new owner. This community is part of the Thousand Trails resort community. Lake access, boat ramps, small private beach, dog park, basketball courts, tennis courts, miniature golf, huge playground. Olympic size pool with hot tub. Small boat or vehicle wash pad, all inclusive. Separate washateria as well. Do you have family that has RV's have them bring it on down for their visit. RV sites and small cabins available for rent in the park.

15. 2026-04-09
    price $134,000
16. 2026-03-05
    historical
17. 2026-02-10
    listed $140,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,071
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,506
• − Property taxes: −$2,010
• − Insurance: −$670
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,446
• − Management: −$1,446
• − Depreciation: −$3,898
• Taxable income: $1,095
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$263
• After-tax cash flow: $2,901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is ready for its new owner and has a good curb appeal. The home has a good roof, exterior, and interior walls. The kitchen and bathrooms are in good condition. The home has a good foundation and structure. The home has a good HVAC system and has a good landscaping and curb appeal. The home is ready for its new owner and has a good resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Trim bushes and plants — Improves landscaping and enhances curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Trim bushes and plants — Improves landscaping and enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $134,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $134,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $140,000 HARMLS