14000 El Evado #4 · Victorville, CA 92392

$122,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1981 1,152 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful Double-Wide in a Desirable Park! This spacious mobile home features an inviting open floor plan with abundant natural light throughout. The kitchen offers plenty of counter space and storage. Enjoy newer floors, fresh paint, and updated windows. 2 big storage units for lots of storage. Please note this home is located in a 55+community and we must have park approval before any offer can be accepted.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Fresh paint
• Newer floors

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• PLENTY OF COUNTER SPACE
• BIG STORAGE UNITS
• NEWER FLOORS
• FRESH PAINT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: Seasons; Body type: Double (multi-unit); Pets allowed: contact for details
• Financial info: Land lease amount applies
• HOA & community: Senior community; Community amenities include pool, biking paths, and street lighting; Land lease applies

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story property; Located in a community park (Seasons)
• Construction: Year built per appraiser
• Exterior features: Association pool; 0–1 unit per acre lot characteristic; Two sheds on the property; Mobile home remains on site

Interior

• Bedrooms: All bedrooms on main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; Front door entry; All bedrooms located on the ground floor
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in a dedicated room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $122k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $792 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $122k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 4.2% in Victorville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#906 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Victor Elementary (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #408 of 517 in CA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 369 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $843 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $122k implies a 618% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 1→3/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,340 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.81%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $64,512
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14000 El Evado Rd #77	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	4mo	$65,000	$56	97
14000 El Evado Rd #96	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	22mo	$40,000	$35	82
14411 Palmdale Rd #64	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (-6%)	1mo	$65,000	$60	79
14000 El Evado Rd #17	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,218 (+6%)	22mo	$77,000	$63	72
14000 El Evado Rd #87	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	20mo	$70,000	$56	70
14000 El Evado Rd #44	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	20mo	$45,000	$36	70
14000 El Evado Rd #92	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	21mo	$81,000	$77	69
14000 El Evado Rd #12	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+12%)	12mo	$102,000	$79	64
14411 Palmdale Rd #31	0.11mi	2/1.5	992 (-14%)	8mo	$49,900	$50	64
14000 El Evado Rd #30	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+8%)	23mo	$65,999	$53	62
14411 Palmdale Rd #56	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	23mo	$47,000	$38	62
14580 Gravilla	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+8%)	7mo	$326,000	$261	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $27,995
• Equity at exit: $18,191

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $78,674
• Equity at exit: $10,548

Cash invested: $34,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92392

• Home prices YoY: -9.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 369
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,069 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$640
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$152 /mo · $1,830/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $792

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,067

Max offer price $122,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,500
• Closing costs: $3,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14450 El Evado Rd Victorville, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,615	$1.80	2d	3	0.40mi
14485 Seneca Rd Victorville, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1123	$2,345	$2.09	2d	6	0.62mi
13730 San Martin Rd Unit B Victorville, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	24d	1	0.70mi
14440 Stivers Rd Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	994	$1,950	$1.96	10d	1	0.83mi
14610 Green River Rd Victorville, CA	3.0	2.5	1493	$2,595	$1.74	2d	1	0.84mi
14374 Borego Rd Victorville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	842	$2,080	$2.47	2d	12	0.95mi
14344 Mcart Rd Victorville, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1042	$1,899	$1.82	2d	5	0.95mi
13489 Monterey Way Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	927	$2,195	$2.37	2d	1	1.12mi
15230 Seneca Rd Victorville, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	805	$1,850	$2.30	2d	12	1.15mi
14979 Buckskin Rd Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	1277	$2,250	$1.76	2d	1	1.33mi
15112 Brown Ln Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$850	$0.61	2d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $122,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $122,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $122,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $122,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $122,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $122,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $122,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $122,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $122,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $122,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $122,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $122,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $122,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $122,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    listed $122,000 Active
16. 2026-04-20
    historical
17. 2026-01-30
    price $124,000
18. 2025-10-27
    listed $139,000 Active
19. 2021-11-25
    historical
20. 2015-06-26
    soldstatus $17,000
21. 2015-04-27
    listed $18,000
22. 2014-08-22
    historical
23. 2014-08-21
    historical
24. 2014-07-21
    price $12,000
25. 2014-05-22
    listed $19,900 Active
26. 2014-05-21
    listed $12,000
27. 2014-02-06
    listed $19,900
28. 2014-01-19
    historical
29. 2013-08-03
    listed $19,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 1 d/yr ≥99°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,833
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,834
• − Property taxes: −$1,830
• − Insurance: −$610
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,987
• − Management: −$1,987
• − Depreciation: −$3,549
• Taxable income: $8,037
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,929
• After-tax cash flow: $7,572/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victor Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0641040
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $44,949
• Composite: 21.58/100
• National rank: #8304
• State rank: #408 of 517 in CA

Livability — Victorville

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #906
• US rank: #24038

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victorville, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 154,418
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 65,429
• Household income: $87,681
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1879.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Two or more races 24% White 22% Black 14% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 38% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.57%
• Current HPI: 358.5152
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.69%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+513.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $122,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $124,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-27 Listed $139,000 CRMLS
• 2021-11-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2015-06-26 Sold (MLS) $17,000 CRMLS
• 2015-04-27 Listed $18,000 CRMLS
• 2014-08-22 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2014-08-21 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2014-07-21 Price Changed $12,000 CRMLS
• 2014-05-22 Listed $19,900 CRMLS
• 2014-05-21 Listed $12,000 CRMLS
• 2014-02-06 Listed $19,900 CRMLS
• 2014-01-19 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2013-08-03 Listed $19,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $199 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.