14 Sumner Pl · Jamestown, NY 14701

$49,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,127 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1895 1,770 sqft lot Est $66k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Three-bedroom home on a neighborhood street in the city. Bring your creativity; this home has great bones, and it could be whatever you want it to be with a little bit of work. The main floor offers a spacious living room, a formal dining room, a den, a storage room, and a large kitchen. The kitchen does need some upgrading, but there is plenty of space to work with, making the possibilities endless. Upstairs, there are three bedrooms, all done with laminate flooring, and a second full bath.

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Formal dining room
• Large kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• LARGE KITCHEN
• LAMINATE FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $518 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#470 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D, crime F.
• Jamestown City School District (town): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #553 of 590 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 313 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $49k implies a 250% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $47,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.29%
• DSCR: 3.02
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $66,493
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Sumner Pl	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,127 (0%)	1mo	$50,000	$44	98
617 Spring St	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,054 (-6%)	3mo	$15,000	$14	71
162 Sturges St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,134 (+1%)	10mo	$93,500	$82	62
174 Sturges St	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+2%)	5mo	$123,000	$107	61
865 Lafayette St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,090 (-3%)	16mo	$47,500	$44	59
138 Euclid Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,176 (+4%)	17mo	$68,000	$58	55
504 W 8th St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,221 (+8%)	4mo	$45,000	$37	54
616 Cherry St	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,294 (+15%)	10mo	$81,500	$63	50
1240 Prendergast Ave	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,280 (+14%)	10mo	$75,000	$59	46
861 Lafayette St	0.43mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,053 (-7%)	21mo	$45,000	$43	44
157 Euclid Ave	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,202 (+7%)	18mo	$130,000	$108	43
141 Newton Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,248 (+11%)	21mo	$145,000	$116	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $25,074
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.70×
• Total profit: $64,444
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14701

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Active inventory: 313
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,122 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,096/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $518

Break-even live

Break-even rent $467

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21 Spring St Jamestown, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	43d	1	0.34mi
148 Maple St Jamestown, NY	3.0	1.0	1424	$1,350	$0.95	43d	1	1.07mi
317 Fairmount Ave Unit G-1 Jamestown, NY	2.0	2.0	1215	$1,295	$1.07	43d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2025-09-29
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-05
   listed $49,000 Active
3. 2025-08-03
   historical
4. 2025-08-02
   historical
5. 2025-05-19
   price $60,000
6. 2024-12-13
   listed $70,000 Active
7. 2003-12-05
   soldstatus $14,000
8. 2002-08-29
   listed $16,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,096 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,096 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$1,096
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,077
• − Management: −$1,077
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $5,800
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,392
• After-tax cash flow: $4,822/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jamestown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3615630
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $32,240
• Composite: 30.69/100
• National rank: #6176
• State rank: #553 of 590 in NY

Livability — Jamestown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #470
• US rank: #8213

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jamestown, NY
• County: Chautauqua County · 38,461 people
• City population: 38,461
• Metro: Jamestown-Dunkirk-Fredonia, NY
• Population (ZIP): 38,461
• Household income: $49,685
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1838.0

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.93%
• Current HPI: 259.402
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jamestown-Dunkirk-Fredonia, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+206.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-29 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-08-05 Listed $49,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-08-03 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-08-02 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $60,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-12-13 Listed $70,000 UNYREIS
• 2003-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records
• 2002-08-29 Listed $16,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,096 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.