205 College St · Newtonia, MO 64866

$149,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,722 sqft · SingleFamily · 30 Days on market

Built 2003 $87/sqft · 17% below area Est $180k · 17% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

4BD 2BA Manufactured home on nearly an acre near small community of Newtonia. Home is very well maintained, total electric, wood burning fireplace, lots of storage space and kitchen cabinets, built in buffet cabinet in dining room, large yard, new front and side decks, lots of windows for natural lighting. Master bathroom is large with double door entry, double sinks, walk-in shower, & garden tub. This is a must see, semi-country property for the money. Property tax to be determined. Home has recently been placed on this property. Septic system is new, along with all other utility hook ups leading to the property. Tax amount does not reflect tax amount after home has been added to the property.

Key facts

• Large yard
• Walk-in shower
• Double door entry

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• BUILT IN BUFFET CABINET
• NEW FRONT AND SIDE DECKS
• LARGE YARD
• DOUBLE DOOR ENTRY
• WALK-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-740/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#759 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• East Newton County R-VI (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #248 of 324 in MO (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Newton County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $122,972 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.77%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,615
• List price: $149,500
• Delta: -10.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $14,099
• Equity at exit: $67,222

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $55,747
• Equity at exit: $103,597

Cash invested: $41,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64866

• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,230 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,242/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,308

Max offer price $140,574

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,375
• Closing costs: $4,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,500 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,500 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,500 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,500 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,500 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,500 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,500 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,500 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,500 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,500 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,500 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $149,500 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $159,900 Active 708-char remark

    Show marketing remark (716 chars)

    4BD 2BA Manufactured home on nearly an acre near small community of Newtonia. Home is very well maintained, total electric, wood burning fireplace, lots of storage space and kitchen cabinets, built in buffet cabinet in dining room, large yard, new front and side decks, lots of windows for natural lighting. Master bathroom is large with double door entry, double sinks, walk-in shower, & garden tub. This is a must see, semi-country property for the money. Property tax to be determined. Home has recently been placed on this property. Septic system is new, along with all other utility hook ups leading to the property. Tax amount does not reflect the tax amount after the home has been added to the property.

16. 2026-05-19
    listed $159,900 Active 716-char remark

    Show marketing remark (716 chars)

    4BD 2BA Manufactured home on nearly an acre near small community of Newtonia. Home is very well maintained, total electric, wood burning fireplace, lots of storage space and kitchen cabinets, built in buffet cabinet in dining room, large yard, new front and side decks, lots of windows for natural lighting. Master bathroom is large with double door entry, double sinks, walk-in shower, & garden tub. This is a must see, semi-country property for the money. Property tax to be determined. Home has recently been placed on this property. Septic system is new, along with all other utility hook ups leading to the property. Tax amount does not reflect the tax amount after the home has been added to the property.

17. 2026-02-28
    price $159,900
18. 2026-02-28
    price $159,900
19. 2026-02-07
    price $164,500
20. 2026-02-07
    price $164,500
21. 2025-12-12
    listed $169,500 Active
22. 2025-11-09
    price $174,900
23. 2025-11-09
    price $174,900
24. 2025-07-20
    price $179,500
25. 2025-07-20
    price $179,500
26. 2025-06-23
    listed $189,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,757
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,374
• − Property taxes: −$2,242
• − Insurance: −$748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,181
• − Management: −$1,181
• − Depreciation: −$4,349
• Taxable loss: −$3,318
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$796
• After-tax cash flow: $56/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Newton County R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2930420
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,447
• Composite: 27.25/100
• National rank: #7011
• State rank: #248 of 324 in MO

Livability — Newtonia

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #759
• US rank: #23607

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newtonia, MO
• Population (ZIP): 1,033

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,151 people
• By 2030: 58,961 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 57,609 · -2.6%
• By 2050: 54,775 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 46,140 · -22.0%
• By 2100: 34,348 · -41.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.6) · D 20.2% · R 78.8% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.5pp toward R · 2008: -40.1pp · 2024: -58.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.6 2020: R+57.4 2016: R+58.7 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+40.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-15.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $159,900 OGAR
• 2026-05-19 Listed $159,900 SOMO
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $159,900 OGAR
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $159,900 SOMO
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $164,500 SOMO
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $164,500 OGAR
• 2025-12-12 Listed $169,500 SOMO
• 2025-11-09 Price Changed $174,900 OGAR
• 2025-11-09 Price Changed $174,900 SOMO
• 2025-07-20 Price Changed $179,500 OGAR
• 2025-07-20 Price Changed $179,500 SOMO
• 2025-06-23 Listed $189,000 SOMO