615 Ituna Cir E · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$341,900

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,227 sqft · Land · 118 Days on market

Built 2026 4,792 sqft lot $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. New construction home with 2227 square feet on two-story including 5 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, and an open living area. Enjoy an open kitchen with Quartz countertops, Samsung stainless steel appliances, a walk-in pantry, and a spacious island, fully open to the dining café and gathering room. The living area, laundry room, and baths include luxury wood vinyl plank flooring, with stain-resistant carpet in the bedrooms. Your owner's suite is complete with a walk-in wardrobe and a private en-suite bath with dual vanities, and a tiled shower. Bedrooms 2 and 3 share a jack-and-Jill bathroom. Plus, enjoy a covered lanai, 2-car garage, custom-fit window blinds, architectural

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Quartz countertops
• Walk-in wardrobe

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• STAIN-RESISTANT CARPET
• WALK-IN WARDROBE

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $342k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-425 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (18.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 491 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,516/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 1270% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($311k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $251,644 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.32%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-84,648
• Equity at exit: $50,978

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-117,371
• Equity at exit: $29,561

Cash invested: $95,732 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,516 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,793
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$427 /mo · $5,128/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-425

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,054

Max offer price $280,431

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-189	-5% $-307	+0% $-425	+5% $-543	+10% $-661
Rent	-10% $-624	-5% $-524	+0% $-425	+5% $-325	+10% $-226
Rate	-1.0pp $-253	-0.5pp $-338	base $-425	+0.5pp $-513	+1.0pp $-604

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,475
• Closing costs: $10,257
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
326 Meadowbrook Blvd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.5	2696	$2,600	$0.96	24d	1	0.73mi
877 Cambridge Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$1,875	$1.02	24d	1	0.89mi
213 Lake Lucerne Way Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1717	$1,900	$1.11	12d	1	0.89mi
279 Sunfish Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1943	$2,200	$1.13	24d	1	1.14mi
957 Gotthard Pass Dr Winter Haven, FL	5.0	3.0	2566	$2,751	$1.07	3d	1	1.16mi
1127 Seedorf Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2004	$2,400	$1.20	3d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $341,900 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $341,900 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $341,900 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $341,900 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $341,900 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $341,900 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $341,900 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $341,900 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $341,900 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    statusdays on market $341,900 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-04-27
    status Pending
12. 2026-01-14
    listed $341,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,197
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,152
• − Property taxes: −$5,128
• − Insurance: −$1,710
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,416
• − Management: −$2,416
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$9,946
• Taxable loss: −$11,170
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,681
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,417/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Listed $341,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid