7899 W Fostoria Dr · Pine Ridge, FL 34433

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,539 sqft · Manufactured public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1999 0.26 ac lot Est $154k · 30% over $272/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Seller is providing $5000 towards buyer's closing costs. Beautifully updated and truly move-in ready, this meticulously maintained home offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and efficiency in a desirable 55+ community where you own the land. Installed in 2024 and paid off at closing, the solar panel system delivers outstanding energy efficiency and long-term savings. The updated kitchen features brand-new stainless steel appliances including a microwave, oven, and refrigerator, along with a sleek black glass-top electric range, new stainless steel sink, and an upgraded pantry with custom shelving for exceptional storage and organization. The guest bathroom has been tastefully refreshe

Key facts

• Upgraded pantry
• Updated kitchen
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• SOLAR PANEL SYSTEM
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• UPGRADED PANTRY
• REFRESHED GUEST BATHROOM
• WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned RURMH; Lot is level, approximately 0.26 acres
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee of $272) — amenities include pool and shuffleboard court; fee covers pool and grounds maintenance; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Solar energy generation
• Home design: Residential modular double-wide home; One story; Slab foundation; Home faces south
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Built as a double-wide modular
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porches (rear porch is screened); Patio areas; Rain gutters; Shed/storage structure on property; In-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Water filtration system; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Split-bedroom layout; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Wood-burning fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (11.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.4% in Pine Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#565 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Citrus Springs Elementary School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade D+, #1,070 of 2,144 statewide, top 51%, 817 students, 71% FRL); Crystal River Middle School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade C-, #286 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 900 students, 64% FRL); Crystal River High School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 1,249 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 653 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $200k implies a 161% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,156 (11.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.76%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $153,900
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8385 N Shady Fork Way	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-2%)	8mo	$151,000	$100	84
7925 W Fostoria Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+7%)	18mo	$160,000	$97	71
8156 N Princess Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,724 (+12%)	1mo	$90,000	$52	64
8033 N Mary Ter	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,432 (-7%)	5mo	$145,000	$101	63
8445 N Cedar Elm Way	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-13%)	11mo	$125,000	$93	62
8645 N Ural Pt	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-13%)	2mo	$238,500	$177	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-40,358
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-44,751
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34433

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 653
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,006 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$310 /mo · $3,714/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$272
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,169

Max offer price $177,156

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-16	-5% $-72	+0% $-129	+5% $-185	+10% $-242
Rent	-10% $-287	-5% $-208	+0% $-129	+5% $-50	+10% $30
Rate	-1.0pp $-28	-0.5pp $-78	base $-129	+0.5pp $-181	+1.0pp $-233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $272 · $3,264/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 22 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    price $199,900
18. 2026-05-08
    listed $189,900 Active
19. 2026-04-12
    price $199,900
20. 2026-03-14
    price $204,900
21. 2026-02-23
    price $214,900
22. 2010-10-26
    soldstatus $76,500
23. 2005-07-06
    soldstatus $79,500
24. 1999-08-30
    soldstatus $82,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,714 · $310/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,714 · $310/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,066
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$3,714
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,925
• − Management: −$1,925
• − HOA: −$3,264
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$4,775
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,146
• After-tax cash flow: $-399/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pine Ridge

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #565
• US rank: #10798

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 18,514
• Population (ZIP): 8,218

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.35%
• Current HPI: 340.9844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+141.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $199,900 RACC
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $204,900 RACC
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $214,900 RACC
• 2010-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $76,500 Public Records
• 2005-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $79,500 Public Records
• 1999-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $82,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+20.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,714 · +704.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.