1527 Loose Stone Dr · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$209,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,393 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 112 Days on market

Built 2016 5,488 sqft lot Est $262k · 20% under $117/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home is designed for easy, low-maintenance living. With two additional well-sized bedrooms, there is plenty of space for a home office, a guest suite. The attached two-car garage and dedicated laundry room add to the functional appeal of this move-in-ready gem.

Key facts

• 5,488 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2016

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,393
• HOA & community: Part of Sterling Lakes association; Association offers controlled access and gated amenities; Annual association fee of $1,400

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Gated community access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (all main rooms on first floor)
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 2016; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Concrete road surface; Security gate

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Garbage disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total — two additional bedrooms (11x11) and a primary bedroom (13x12), all on the first floor
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Granite counters

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $191k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.2% in Iowa Colony — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Iowa Colony H S (792 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1139 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,009 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.70%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $261,884
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9438 Gold Mountain Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,393 (0%)	1mo	$229,000	$164	94
1802 Opal Peach Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,393 (0%)	2mo	$240,000	$172	85
1827 Garnet Breeze Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,393 (0%)	2mo	$235,000	$169	84
9115 Serene Hvn	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+1%)	2mo	$296,490	$210	80
9011 Serene Hvn	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+1%)	1mo	$288,490	$204	78
1306 Paradise Found Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,393 (0%)	2mo	$239,000	$172	77
9919 Opal Rock Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,393 (0%)	2mo	$239,999	$172	67
1511 Shimmering Ocean Way	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+14%)	1mo	$299,990	$188	56
1202 Paradise Found Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,581 (+14%)	1mo	$265,000	$168	53
9015 Rose Water Trl	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+14%)	1mo	$309,490	$194	52
1222 Sandy Shore Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+14%)	2mo	$309,990	$194	51
9118 Sunset Marina Way	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+14%)	3mo	$309,490	$194	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-31,618
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-40,143
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1139
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,515 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$549 /mo · $6,589/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$117
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,347

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1123 Diamond Drape Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,000	$1.08	12d	1	0.33mi
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1593	$1,886	$1.18	22d	1	0.78mi
10313 Malta Trace Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,545	$1.41	43d	1	0.88mi
1816 Corsica Creek Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1653	$2,306	$1.40	1d	21	0.94mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,700	$1.56	1d	6	1.07mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,469	$1.43	43d	7	1.07mi
10610 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,700	$1.74	43d	1	1.11mi
10502 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1615	$2,725	$1.69	1d	1	1.12mi
10507 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,650	$1.71	1d	1	1.12mi
10622 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,775	$1.56	43d	1	1.14mi
2510 Green Jasper Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,375	$1.52	43d	1	1.17mi
10538 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,775	$1.82	1d	1	1.21mi
10602 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1596	$2,850	$1.79	20d	1	1.23mi
1234 Scarlet Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,650	$1.71	1d	1	1.24mi
8219 House Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,970	$1.56	22d	1	1.30mi
2523 Topaz Hill Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1857	$2,425	$1.31	16d	1	1.32mi
8102 Buck Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,100	$1.49	43d	1	1.41mi
8310 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,300	$1.25	43d	1	1.41mi
10203 Karsten Blvd Rosharon, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$2,061	$2.20	1d	138	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $117 · $1,404/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   price $209,900
3. 2026-04-01
   status Active
4. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
6. 2026-03-17
   price $214,900
7. 2026-01-05
   listed $225,000 Active
8. 2025-12-29
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,589 · $549/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,589 · $549/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,175
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$6,589
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,414
• − Management: −$2,414
• − HOA: −$1,404
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$1,559
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$374
• After-tax cash flow: $1,961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Iowa Colony, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $214,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,589 · -7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.